Almost Here!

November 21, 2009

All of us are watching that low approaching the Coast tonight.  I was distracted by about 2 hours of Netflix viewing with the family, but they are in bed and now it’s time for the weather party!   Too many people on my road are downloading movies, or something else, because my connection is REALLY slow.  Which means plenty of time to analyze each image of the IR loop. 

Looks like at 11pm the low is just about straight west of Astoria, maybe just about on top of Buoy 46089?  Notice the strong wind there suddenly went light WSW.  If it had gone south of that point the wind would have clocked around to the north and then northwest.  If it was very far north, the strong south wind would have gone gusty SW.  Pressure is 988 mb at 11pm there.  Pressure was forecast to be 987mb at 11pm, but the low was supposed to be west of Hoquiam on the WRF-GFS.  WRF-NAM had it slightly farther north than it is now and a bit weaker.   Satellite presentation (comma shape, vapor darkening, and cold air behind) are very nice.   How about the 8.2 millibar drop in pressure at PDX in the last 3 hours?  That’s very impressive.

So I still think we’re on for a quick burst of wind maybe 3 hours from now in the Metro area.  For the sake of verification tomorrow, I’ll say S-SW 30 with gusts 45-55 mph at the airports.  This will be enough to wake most people up and give us plenty of power outages.  It’s not a big windstorm forecast, but since the depth of the low is tracking well with the models, I don’t see a good reason to get crazy.  We haven’t gone above 49 mph at PDX in two years so this could be a big one.

I’ll be hanging out in the comment section until bedtime.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen