Active, but Not Wild Weather

Just for fun and a look at the “behind the scenes”…here’s the note I just sent out to the newsroom. This is how we let them know what’s going on:

COASTAL WIND: It has not been impressive so far. The main wind has been on the Washington Coast. Peak gusts on the Oregon Coast have only been 40-50 mph with a spot or two slightly higher…a bit of yawner for them. I still think it’ll pick up some overnight, but gusts will stay below 70 mph. There will be a lull tomorrow morning, then another surge of wind tomorrow midday or so with gusts of 60-70 mph. Definitely not a major storm, but a windy period out there.

COASTAL RAIN: It has been heavy in SW Washington, but not so much in the North Coast Range. As of now no rivers are forecast to flood in N.W. Oregon.

WESTERN VALLEYS (INCLUDING PORTLAND METRO): It’s breezy and we’ve had some rain, but less than 1” expected in the next 2-3 days. Wind gusts should stay below 35 mph.

I’ll have a bit more of a meteorological angle on things coming up a bit later…

Okay, let’s try it again.  I posted, but then apparently it had logged me out…really annoying and a lost post.  Looks like a lull in the wind late tonight through tomorrow morning, then the 2nd low is heading for Vancouver Island by late tomorrow afternoon.  Wind gusts should be a bit higher at the Coast.

That 00z WRF-GFS did catch my attention with a 3rd little low moving onto the Washington Coast on Friday.  If it is deeper on later runs it could give us some good wind.  But that model is the only one that has shown it so far.

Out of time…everyone is heading home and I am too.

Chief Metorologist Mark Nelsen

 

75 Responses to Active, but Not Wild Weather

  1. Jethro (Molalla) says:

    Holy 00z la-la-land batman!

    Anyone seen The Day After Tomorrow? 😉

  2. timmy - scappoose says:

    the 00z shows a nice High east of us sliding down from canada, with sub -10 850mb temps with moisture approaching from our west. typical snow setup for us. let the model riding commence!

  3. Rob Martin says:

    Hey Everyone! Just stopping by and saying hi. Also if there is any clear evening coming up, go out and take a look at the space shuttle docked with the ISS fly overhead. Here is a link to the date and times for Portland.

    http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/view.cgi?country=United_States&region=Oregon&city=Portland

    I was able to see it here in North Dakota last night, its really sweet.

    • boydo3 (500') N Albany says:

      Rob, my son just moved back to Oregon from the Belfield area. That was after one of the nastiest winters in many years. Needless to say he and his young family are glad to be back. Hope you do well there.
      BTW, clear evening? LOL

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    IR Enhanced Loop
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    Nice secondary low has developed and is strengthening down to/below 984mb.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?fronts_ir+1
    It’s near 130.9 W, 46.8 N moving ENE. It appears it will move into Central Vancouver Island.

    • boydo3 (500') N Albany says:

      Still seems like systems are veering more to the north than models have been predicting. What should be, according to recent models, be swinging into Oregon, is jutting up to WA and BC. TV mets keep forecasting lots of rain each day but we get little. I keep worrying that El Nino is about to rule the flow. I hope I am very wrong. Endless days of inversions and fog for the southern valley, little snow in the mountains, is not my idea of a fun winter. But hey, the coast would be very nice!

    • Tyler says:

      Marks forecast called for a mainly dry Thursday…

  5. william johnson says:

    to me this is a weather blog but all i keep hearing is stuff that makes no sence stuff that doesnt have anything to do with weather or weather related talk that the normal everyday person does not even know now does anyone agree with me ? I am here in Astoria Oregon all day the winds been gusting quite well especially around 10 am till around 3 pm but seems to have died down to nothing i barely hear a roar outside only one or to tings from our wind chimes does that mean the worst is over or does that mean a lull in the storm? bill

    • Timmy - scappoose says:

      Is it too technical? Or not weather related? I don’t understand your lament

    • boydo3 (500') N Albany says:

      I wouldn’t get too riled. We can only stare at computer graphics so long before we start talking about food, beer, and such waiting for something new to come up. Besides, you just gave everybody a nice image of the weather in Astoria. In the valley it has been really benign. Maybe with luck the winds will pick up again in a while and it starts to flood too (sarcasm implied).

  6. gidrons says:

    no split in gfs 18z but hour 384 has makings of arctic outbreak forming. I know I know…lala land

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

      Yep,

      The 06, 12, and 18z GFS does not agree with what the Euro was showing.

    • goducks09 (Oatfield, OR) says:

      FINALLY…Something to get overly/unnecessarily excited about! 😉

      But in all seriousness, hopefully this continues to show up in future runs!

  7. timmy - scappoose says:

    The Euro has been pretty consistant with showing split flow late next week. CURSE YOU EL NINO! we are doomed! wait, its not even a month away from winter yet…

  8. A while back, [I don’t know who] a group of people decided to try to influence a natural event [in this case it was a drought in Texas] by getting as many people as possible to focus their toughts on rain in Texas. Now the drought didn’t end, but it actually DID RAIN.
    Coinincidence or not, no one nows, but maybe, just maybe we can pead and beg that big bomb up near Alaska
    to come to us.
    ROFLMAO
    “DEEPEN! DEEPEN! COME TO US ALMIGHTY BOMB!”

  9. Tetra says:

    Dream start for virtually every major ski area in northern hemisphere 😮

    18 Nov 09 – Huge snowfalls in Italy, Sweden, Japan, Finland, Austria, France, Germany, Switzerland, and across North America. Includes the Alps, the Pyrenees, the Rockies, and the Dolomites.
    See Dream start for virtually every major ski area in northern hemisphere

  10. Tetra says:

    You can take this info iny away you want.

    Whistler to break November snowfall record today – 19 Nov 09
    Italian Dolomites Dominate Ski Reports With Early Snow – 18 Nov 09
    Italian ski resorts killing it with record snow – 18 Nov 09
    Heavy snow in Spanish Pyrenees – 10 Nov 09
    New Zealand: Coldest October in 64 years – 3 Nov 09
    All-time October low in Bavaria – 20 Oct 09
    Czech Republic: Most snow in 100 years – 16 Oct 09
    See What’s Happening in Other Parts of the World

  11. Tetra says:

    All right winter here we come!

    The sky IS falling – as snow
    18 Nov 09 – “Ten years ago they were squealing that by now ski resorts would be doomed. Another one of the dozens of predictions made by alarmists that hasn’t materialized. The sky IS falling – as snow.”
    See The sky IS falling – as snow

    From Iceagenow.com and http://www.evolutionaryleaps.com/

  12. Tyler says:

    Notice how the temperature at Rooster Rock is just 46, right on the river, with the east wind. But above (about 700′), at Corbett, the south wind is blowing and it’s 54.

    Corbett:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=C2664&table=1&banner=off

    Rooster Rock:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=RRWO3&table=1&banner=off

  13. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Peak wind gust in Forest Grove so far 25mph. The local weather station doesn’t give a time so it happened some time after midnight.

  14. muxpux says:

    so Kelso had a peak gust last night of 40mph around 10:30pm or so, we had some people over playing board games, and wow. all night it was a constant roar as the combo of wind, leaves, and rain battered the windows, and carport.

    woke up this morning and looked outside and was surprised it was still very windy and pouring.

    had a gust at 5 this AM of 39. still breezy though the faucet has been shut off…

  15. umpire says:

    WOW! On the KGW web site, there is a national weather radar (probably a similar one somewhere on Mark’s site), and that massive system that is now over the Bering Sea shows up on the west side of the radar image – that thing is huge – Rob Wrath, you had noted it earlier – any thoughts on where that thing lands?

  16. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    WHOA!!! Can you say SPLIT FLOW??? Check out the Euro at hour 240, lol, is that a norelco electric shaver head?

    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007111600!!/

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Via Weather E-mail list reports of 35-45+mph gusts west side of town Aloha, Hillsboro, Forest Grove..
    55.8F here with S-SW winds 5-15mph. West side wins again it seems(For now).

    WV Loop
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
    Shows the area I had been watching last night on IR loops now developing strongly, but guess what? Sigh yeah it is heading for northern Vancouver Island. Perhaps we see decent gusts 35-45mph+ continue today as we’re in the warm sector and again ahead of the cold front tonight…

    Other than that 12z WRF-GFS did not show anything promising or very exciting. It takes that rogue low on Friday a tad further north and did not deepen it at all. The gradient couplet well I should say what there is seems to line up a tad further north as well. The extended run seems to show more of the same with the progressive stormy pattern continuing for the foreseeable future.

    • boydo3 (500') N Albany says:

      Wow, dropped my post?
      Anyway I am wondering now if the cold front even swings in. Models have been missing the mark when it comes to eastward movement. Big time!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah a few waves have slowed it down. Also today we have the warm front lifting northward. It’ll get here. 🙂

  18. gidrons says:

    Did anyone see Al Gore last night?

    • Umpire says:

      OK, I’ll be ready to duck for cover, and acknowledge I attended. A few thoughts:

      As part of attending, everyone also received a copy of his new book, titled “Our Choice.” It’s a very dense book, but with a lot of information about alternatives to current technologies, primarily in the energy field. From what I’ve read so far, pretty good information, appears to have a solid science base.

      2) Mr. Gore noted that there are a number of people who disagree with the notion of climate change. He did suggest that another reason to change energy use was our reliance on oil from foreign sources that are not always hospitable to the US’s interests – as well as the cost of wars and terrorism.

      3) When I arrived at Keller, either most of the protesters had left, or there weren’t that many to begin with – 25-30 at most.

      The presentation itself was pretty academic – a walk through the book – though Gore does have a pretty good, self-deprecating sense of humor. He also does clearly have a very strong passion for this – I really don’t think this is about him making money from trading carbon credits.

      One note, something new I learned – “Cap and Trade” actually has it’s roots in the first Bush Administration, with a similar market for permits for sulfur dioxide emissions. This system has had success in reducing SO2, and thus acid rain, especially in the East Coast, which relies more heavily on coal-fired industries.

    • Tetra says:

      Typical Liberal sheeple. *sigh*

    • gidrons says:

      I haven’t read any of his books or seen his movie. But I do agree with him on #2. Imports are bad, and they’re really bad when we send billions of dollars to people who hate us, some of who want to kill us.

      still waiting for 18z, seems to be taking longer today

  19. Currently 45.9°, winds only 5-9 mph and no measurable rain last 24 hours.

  20. “Active, but not wild” seems an apt description.

    Gonna call it a night. Marathon brewing session is winding down. Gotta get up early to prep for early T-day on Friday.

    Hope y’all enjoy the breeziness 🙂

  21. Tetra says:

    Winds look and sound like force 7. WOOSH!

    G-night and so much for no winds above 35mph. 😮 😉

  22. flurball says:

    Both were with KOIN in the early 80’s and ? if memory serves. Both known as a bit rogue and going away from the standard NWS forecast which was welcome. Phil does private forecasts for Tri-Met and other pay for organizations and Chuck, I’ve seen him at some of the gatherings but keeps a low profile/ Don’t mean to speak for these fellows. Just my own obs and what I’ve seen/heard/observed, but have always respected their forecasts for years when many on this blog probably were not born yet.

  23. flurball says:

    Weise and Volker

    • Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

      cant find anything except some random posts on western from like a year ago or something :/

  24. flurball says:

    Anyone have access to Chuck W or Phil V? They have nailed some wind storm forecasts in the past.

  25. Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

    hmmm, matt zad said that low riding up the coast on friday could us the “windiest conditions”

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah I watched him after Mark’s 10:40 PM forecast. He said something like this could bring strong winds to valley. It’s really the same thing I posted with my 00z WRF-GFS analysis… It would be cool if it happened. Magic Mark didn’t get too excited about it though.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Wait…. Who’s “Matt Zad” 😮 nah just joking. He’d be even cooler if his last name were Zad though.

    • Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

      Yeaaa so much for spelling ha, although it’s ok i like Zad more now. I think he may have hided or hinter something we might expect on friday

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      It’s okay I am not Mr. efficient at typing myself.

      Good night (Unless torrential rains, strong winds, or lightning wakes me up)

    • Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

      yep good night

  26. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    So far have cooled to 45.5F.

  27. Karl Bonner says:

    What’s the lowest snow levels we could expect in the East Gorge the next couple days? What about this weekend?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I wish I had a definitive answer for you, Karl. Hood River valley perhaps 1,500′ or so. Best I can give you.

  28. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I’ve had some evaporative cooling I’m down to 46.6F

  29. Ben Monjay says:

    Rob beat me to it but just had a gust to 47. You can really hear the wind screaming thru the trees up in the coast range.

  30. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    UM …. Velocities shows 50-70kts moving into Washington County. Unsure what to make of this, but the wind gusts they have been reporting seems to be responding to this.

  31. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Ben from Forest Grove reporting gust to 47mph. Other reports in this area of 40+mph gusts.

  32. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Hmmmm
    You sure Mark below 35mph? 🙂 I say with respect of course.

    Aurora is now gusting to 39mph.

    • Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

      rob what are your thoughts on that low developing neat 150w?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yevgeniy, I do like the further south trajectory. It seems worth keeping an eye on.

    • Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

      I wonder if the jet stream which is carrying the wave in front of that low will actually possibly carry the low into 130,40 area?

    • Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

      GFS shows the low hitting northern part of vancouver island and peaking itself at around 988 or so hmm..

  33. philinforestgrove says:

    Just went outside. Getting some strong winds in FG. You can hear the wind howling through the tree tops in old town. A few gusts shook the house.

  34. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    17th?

    Thanks for the update, Mark.
    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
    Radar has been showing some very heavy rain, especially over the Kelso area. 60dbz or so on reflectivity. Also Base Velocities shows increasing winds aloft.

  35. philinforestgrove says:

    Wahooo. 100mph in FG!!!
    Suspect reading of course.

  36. Tetra Silverton Oregon Where the storms usually skip and Rob gets them for me says:

    Yeah I am not the only one to notice the winds cranking up down here in da south. 🙂

  37. Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

    3rd!

  38. AdamInAumsville says:

    Winds gusting a bit here now…

  39. AdamInAumsville says:

    1!

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