I see it’s 38 degrees and raining here at home this morning. A friend up at 1800′ on the way up to Larch Mountain had 34 degrees and I assume at least a rain/snow mix earlier this morning…winter is getting close! This is from a nice little upper disturbance passing overhead on it’s way to Idaho/Utah. There isn’t as much precipitation as I expected, but we should make up for that tomorrow as a juicier and even colder system passes through tomorrow morning. Now snow levels will actually bump up a bit at first, and then drop later in the day as colder air works in. Models show the freezing level down around 2500′ in the afternoon/evening, which would put sticking snow down to around 1,500′. Of course as always if we get a heavy shower it could go slightly lower. The main message is that the December-like temps will continue. Even with lots of sunshine Saturday it’ll be a real crisp day with fresh snow on the mountains around us.
Then it’s on to warmer west/southwest flow Sunday through Tuesday. Lots of disagreement on models here. A big change I see this morning is a strong El-Nino-ish split (sorry, now it’s like global warming where anytime we see a split it’ll have to be because of El Nino) on the GFS at 6 and 12z models. ECMWF not so much. Unfortunately no models show a big deep low now for Tuesday or Wednesday. I was a bit busy yesterday so I didn’t get a chance to post, but I know many of you saw the hint of some excitement during that time period. Well, the models giveth and taketh away apparently.
So, other than some relatively low elevation snow coming up tomorrow, the weather looks pretty quiet for now…assuming the Monday-Tuesday trough splits some offshore.
This afternoon from about 3:30 to 6pm Shauna & I will be out at the Fred Meyer at 82nd and Foster Rd. We’re raising money and donations (coats, school supplies etc…) for Marysville School that partially burned down Tuesday. Come by and chat weather if you want…bring some pencils and Batman/My Little Pony lunchboxes too if you can…
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen