Feels Like December!

BlueBoxPass_pid742I see it’s 38 degrees and raining here at home this morning.  A friend up at 1800′ on the way up to Larch Mountain had 34 degrees and I assume at least a rain/snow mix earlier this morning…winter is getting close!  This is from a nice little upper disturbance passing overhead on it’s way to Idaho/Utah.  There isn’t as much precipitation as I expected, but we should make up for that tomorrow as a juicier and even colder system passes through tomorrow morning.  Now snow levels will actually bump up a bit at first, and then drop later in the day as colder air works in.  Models show the freezing level down around 2500′ in the afternoon/evening, which would put sticking snow down to around 1,500′.  Of course as always if we get a heavy shower it could go slightly lower.  The main message is that the December-like temps will continue.  Even with lots of sunshine Saturday it’ll be a real crisp day with fresh snow on the mountains around us.

Then it’s on to warmer west/southwest flow Sunday through Tuesday.  Lots of disagreement on models here.  A big change I see this morning is a strong El-Nino-ish split (sorry, now it’s like global warming where anytime we see a split it’ll have to be because of El Nino)  on the GFS at 6 and 12z models.  ECMWF not so much.  Unfortunately no models show a big deep low now for Tuesday or Wednesday.  I was a bit busy yesterday so I didn’t get a chance to post, but I know many of you saw the hint of some excitement during that time period.  Well, the models giveth and taketh away apparently.

So, other than some relatively low elevation snow coming up tomorrow, the weather looks pretty quiet for now…assuming the Monday-Tuesday trough splits some offshore.

This afternoon from about 3:30 to 6pm Shauna & I will be out at the Fred Meyer at 82nd and Foster Rd.  We’re raising money and donations (coats, school supplies etc…) for Marysville School that partially burned down Tuesday.  Come by and chat weather if you want…bring some pencils and Batman/My Little Pony lunchboxes too if you can…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

67 Responses to Feels Like December!

  1. cliff says:

    that is, at 12:30 p. on saturday the 14 of november,

  2. cliff says:

    someone needs to fix the thermometer at clackamas county bank in boring, oregon.

    one side reads 24 degs, and the other, 23 degs, unless it got much colder last night than I realized.

  3. JN from my new mountain home (I need to come up with a cooler name) says:

    Hello everyone,
    I think I need to get approved because I haven’t commented since the old blog last winter. So I don’t know when this will post up, but seemed like a good time to comment as it is 8:45 AM and I have snow falling for almost an hour now here at 1,150 ft. Slush on some surfaces and 34 degrees.

  4. Joe Francona (Silverton) says:

    cascade mountain gin
    northern cold front rollin in
    will snow dust the hills?

  5. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    I think the month of November should end with an epic windstorm, followed by a bitterly cold December with lots of snow all month. Highs ranging from the 30s at the beginning of the month followed by 20s for highs through the end of the year. 😮

    My temp has been between 38-40F degrees for the last couple of hours, currently 40.5F now. :/

  6. Anthony Bertolo - Gresham 500' says:

    First I should have also stated I wasn’t at home, a litle higher, temp was 38 and I don’t think I saw flurries anymore, just doesn’t make sense, must have just been light rain falling in a funny way (900′ elevation). Weird as I I was almost certain, I even tried taking snapshots but they didn’t catch anything.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      It was probably rain that was almost on its way to freezing. Sorta like “rain flakes” 🙂

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I think we may be a little surprised by how breezy the south winds could become overnight/tomorrow AM.

    Latest cross-section model shows this

    Nice compact system seen on WV/IR Loop
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    Looks to move E – ESE slicing through Vancouver Island and perhaps nearing the BC/Washington border.
    Packing an impressive cold front also. I wouldn’t be surprised if south winds exceeded 30mph.

    Unfortunately I think the southerly breezes will negate any drop in freezing/snow level for us below 1,500ft. We’ll need the front to blast through with the wind switch and hope for some post-frontal showers to pull down the then cooling air mass aloft if we want to see some snow in the hills maybe 500′ if you’re under a heavier shower tomorrow evening/night.

    Any thoughts?

    • …NWS SWS for western washington….:
      …ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY…

      A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
      WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING…BRINGING RAIN…MOUNTAIN SNOWS…LOCALLY
      WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
      LOWLANDS.

      SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
      INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF
      THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR INCLUDING THE ADMIRALTY INLET REGION. WIND
      SPEEDS IN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A
      FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH…MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE ISLAND COUNTY AREA.
      AFTER THE FRONT PASSES…WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN
      THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
      BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE BELOW WIND
      ADVISORY CRITERIA…WIND OF THIS STRENGTH COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW
      TREE LIMBS HERE AND THERE WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

      COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER ALREADY LOW
      SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF
      THE FRONT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THE
      SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 500
      FEET BY EVENING. THIS MEANS SOME OF THE HIGHEST HILLS AROUND THE
      REGION COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
      EVENING. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OR THE IMMEDIATE
      CASCADE FOOTHILLS…LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

      DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
      NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Hey, here is something thats very interesting tonight… No lightning!

  8. …nuclear fallout from old a-bomb tests that’s been hiding for 50 years?….just a guess….

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    It’s 41.7F here at 300ft elevation. He’s 500′ likely in the hills… So depending on how much clearing or previous cooling he had it could be 36-38F at the time he saw the precip falling. I’m not sure….

    KPTV tower temps would not reflect any chance of frozen precip though, but again he’s well east of PDX.

  10. Anthony Bertolo - Gresham 500' says:

    You guys might not believe this but I got flurries outside right now??? Half the sky is clear but there are some little flakes falling. No idea on the temp. Can anyone verify?

  11. Tetra says:

    42F mainly clear.

  12. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    It will certainly be interesting to see how low the snow level gets tomorrow evening before the steady precipitation or post-frontal showers come to an end. I would not be at all surprised if at least a rain/snow mix touches the hills of Portland late tomorrow.

  13. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    39.6F

  14. Sherwood Bob says:

    Anybody see Crackuweather’s forecast? Shows snow in Sherwood tomorrow during the day and a “couple of evening snow showers” tomorrow night! LOL!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      You picked the perfect name for that excuse for a weather forecasting website! The only thing good about it is the archived SST and satellite imagery…

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Wait, was that Unysis I was just talking about? 🙂

      lol

  15. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Wow, the new 7-day looks so boring and split-flowy!

    Not.

    • Tetra says:

      *Takes the blog-van and goes to Redding California for some real rain since in Northern California the rain is either feast or famine*

  16. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Earlier today when there was a break in the clouds I could see the coast range and the clear cuts where covered in snow and a decent amount it looked…. The snow level is slowly creeping down toward us. 😮 41.9F more chilly this evening than yesterday.

  17. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    It would be nice seeing some sort of a windstorm or a snow day after this “Convective Pineapple Express” situation we had lately. When ever the GFS models show split flow, I’d just go straight to the EURO models.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah we’ve seen a nice bout of cold air convection as cold air pours out over the central/eastern Gulf of Alaska and is picked up my systems in NW flow.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      by systems* that is….

  18. gidrons says:

    18z gfs running. Does show some split flow around hr 150, and southern California getting their first storm. Its short lived and is followed by a colder northwesterly flow and then by an odd looking ridge. Third run in a row with a big ridge. All lala land of course but interesting to watch.

  19. papaholcomb says:

    I just have to say that I have been watching your blog for quite awhile. It has gotten to the point that I don’t hardly even watch the network weather reports anymore as you guys that blog on here seem to be more in touch with what actually is happening in real time. I remember during the snow storms last winter sitting up until the wee hours of the morning just hitting the refresh button on my computer so I could see the latest from you guys, and I have to say you guys were pretty much spot on, along with Mark of course! Keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your knowledge.

  20. Tetra says:

    It all adds up. 😮

  21. Tetra says:

    Split flow Good:

    Mt Shasta needs their snow after the super-bad drought last year and the drought of the year before and the year before………………………….http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/axe.gif

  22. DEL X V says:

    Nice going Mark and CH 12 for collecting things for the Marysville School kids. I know the place since I started first grade there in 1930 when it was almost new. I also recall the 30 inch snow we got on a Sunday in February 1937. I think they cancelled school the next day.

  23. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Is anyone else concerned that tonight’s 00z runs are going to crush our weather geek souls? I’m hedging towards that….

  24. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Got this from facebook and was wondering if this is true?

    On Nov. 17, 2009, Earth will pass through the 1466 stream again, but this time closer to the center. Based on the number of meteors observed in 2008, Vaubaillon can estimate the strength of the coming display: five hundred or more Leonids per hour. The times provided are optimal view hours for PST, but the Leonid Meteor shower may last up to two days so there may be other times for optimal viewing.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oh if that were true that would be amazing. Several years ago myself and some buddies of mine traveled up the Larch Mtn. Road(Oregon) and watched the Leonids. It was just incredible. It was cold and the road was icy in spots, but well worth it.

    • stilllearning says:

      http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/
      Check this site out – sounds like there is more info.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      2009 LEONID OUTBURST FORECAST

      A significant shower is expected this year when Earth crosses the 1466-dust and 1533-dust ejecta of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. According to J. Vaubaillon, the narrow (about 1-hr) shower is expected to peak on November 17, 2009, at 21:43 (1466) and 21:50 (1533) UT, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 hour later based on a mis-match in 2008, with rates peaking at about ZHR = 115 + 80 = 195/hr (scaled to rates observed in 2008). E. Lyytinen, M. Maslov, D. Moser, and M. Sato all predict similar activity from both trails, combining to about ZHR = 150 – 300 /hr.

    • …ive been following the leonids…..as best as i can tell, China has the best chance of seeing hundreds per hour, while here on the west coast, we will perhaps see tens per hour…..all a matter of timing of when it’s dark……although the wild card is the fact, in addition, we will be going through a stream from a (mid 1600’s?) passage of the comet that we havent gone through before……
      we are also at the longlived peak of the taurids, …they are good for fireballs…..
      …now, if only the skies clear out tuesday night….

  25. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Of course any minute I expect Mark to chime in and school us all showing us what exactly he’s looking at for him to determine the split-flow he’s seeing. I’m guessing it’s the 500mb model.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      500mb charts are the same ones I’m looking at, as well as SLP (surface map w/thicknesses)

      I can see where he’s coming from with the split flow thing ( next week’s trough becomes somewhat elongated and a good chunk of energy goes into Northern California) but there isn’t really much of a “big change” compared to yesterdays GFS runs. We still get decent cold air and dynamics moving behind the cold front.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      That’s exactly what I saw when I suggested 500mb model. It doesn’t look overly significant or “boring” I should say and the long term doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about either,

  26. … i think my (weather geek) mom used to wash my mouth out with soap if i said split flow as a kid…

  27. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Upon further inspection, the 06Z and 12Z GFS look no splittyer (sp?) than any of yesterdays runs.

    On top of that, the 12Z Euro gives no hint of split flow or ridging either. Plenty of active weather ahead. 🙂

  28. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I’m not really seeing a ton of split flow on the models either.

    Whatever the case, it looks like snow levels will be back down below the passes by next Tuesday (only having been above them since late Sunday), with plenty of snow up there. Not a very Nino like pattern.

  29. I’m not seeing a split on the GFS, systems still come through, just not days at a time. But then again there is a reason some people get paid to forecast while others don’t

  30. Bad words…split flow…simple as that…

    41.5F

    • boydo3 says:

      Looks like it only splits for a few days (please) and we stay pretty cool and wet. More snow in the mountains. Then a break to get some sun and skiing around T Day! That’s my MRF!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Weather profanity.

      Everything turns boring. No mountain snow. No low land snow flirtations. No wind event/storms….

      C’mon east winds….

  31. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    95th!

    Mark, thanks for the update.

    Models so often do giveth and taketh away in terms of wind storm potential, or arctic blasts. That’s just a way of life around here. Let’s hope tonight’s 00z runs remove any split-flow idea.

  32. muxpux says:

    went outside around 3am last night, its was cold, wet, and definitely smelled like snow, haha. contemplated driving up the hill to around 850′ or so, but decided not to.

    maybe i should have. and depending on how saturdays weather turns out, i may just have to trek up to mt. st. helens, for some fun in the snow. im keeping a close eye on the webcams.

    btw, for mt. st. helens, this is a great cam to get an eye for the road/weather conditions and not just what the mountain looks like, haha.

  33. 1500ft seems to be the consensus.

%d bloggers like this: