Drew’s Powder Alert

November 9, 2009

Drew Jackson posts these for FOX12 and www.skioregon.org  I’ll put them on the page up above this winter.  Looks like he just issued his first one of the season!


Tornado Wrap

November 9, 2009

lincoln_city_tornado

Just in case you missed it, the NWS rated the Lincoln City Tornado an EF-0.  Details and a storm report are here. Thanks to the National Weather Service for the image above;  it’s a looping .gif…click on it to “make it move”.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


Lightning Strikes + El Nino Update

November 9, 2009

lightning1Our Beach Cam shows lots of dark showers offshore and it looks like we are in for another round of coastal thunderstorms and some inland downpours this evening.  A nice upper-level shortwave is the culprit.  It’s swinging around the large trough offshore.  It’ll be gone after midnight.

Tomorrow looks real quiet ahead of another system that moves in Wednesday.  Behind that it gets really chilly late this week.  A comparison of model runs from 00z to now clearly shows a deepening trend with a trough dropping in on us Friday.  Upper level heights drop below 540dm. with 850mb temps of -4 to -5.  That means the lowest snow level of the season so far…probably down to 2,000′ at least.  With some good precipitation intensity behind the cold front we may be able to get a dusting of snow down into the foothills above 1,500!  Might need to drop that Friday high temp forecast a few degrees as well.

Beyond that time we get a brief break before a milder westerly flow kicks in Sunday-Monday.  The active weather pattern is definitely going to continue.  Let’s hope this is a sign of a fun winter ahead.  I’m concerned that we’re having a typical good start to the storm season that will taper off to BORING sometime in December.  Mainly because of the increasingly strong El Nino.  The rumors it was dying in mid-October are most definitely history.  Check out the latest ENSO update.  The equatorial Pacific is continuing to warm.  Surface and sub-surface temps have warmed significantly in the last month.  Nino 3.4 SST anomaly is up to +1.7 deg. C.  after sitting around .5 to 1.0 from June through October.  If those current conditions continue for the next few months, it’ll be a moderate/strong event. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen