Wet Night Ahead

A real quick post tonight.  Looks like cold front is moving towards the coastline quickly.  A nice shot of wind just ahead of the front.  At 10pm it’s gusting to 53 mph on ODOT’s new sensor on the Astoria-Megler Bridge.   It’s turning breezy here in the Metro area as well.

No changes in my thinking for next week.  ECMWF and GFS are a bit at odds for strength of ridging.  We either stay dry all week or get brushed by some rain Wednesday or beyond.  It sure is going to stay mild though.

Enjoy the weekend, not much rain after tomorrow morning.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

110 Responses to Wet Night Ahead

  1. PaulO says:

    18z GFS shows arctic outbreak only 13 days out.
    I’m keepin’ an eye on this one 🙂

  2. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Latest cross section models shows a much stronger east wind poised to develop Tuesday night.
    35-45kts sustained just up off the surface

  3. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Hey Andrew,

    That previous post of mine had to do with weather. I had to turn my furnace off because I got her so hot she heated up the room.

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    It darn near looks like that massive mega 940mb low in the Gulf of Alaska is our pattern changer… Looking at 12z WRF-GFS that’s exactly what happens.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      The flow becomes more active and progressive. This low essentially clears out the north Pacific opening the door. If anything I’d watch for a wind storm setup from the 7th – 10th.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      BRING IT ON!

  5. gidrons says:

    In El Nino years, when does the infamous split jet usually show up?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      It depends, sometimes it shows up right about now, sometimes it waits until late in the winter, sometimes it doesn’t show up at all.

      We have had some great El Nino winters, btw. Look into 1968-69 and 1972-73 for starters. Alot of mets have a default winter forecast for the NW every time there is an El Nino, but that is usually oversimplifying things, IMO.

    • Both those years were great winters for snow/cold!…In fact, the winter of 1968/69 was the best of all-time for me (IMO)…Only thing both lacked was a good south windstorm…..

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

      Or 1982-83 which while it didn’t bring much in the way of snow. 0″ at PDX I beleive, it did bring lots of rain and active weather. 42.51″ at KHIO October-March 1982-83.

  6. Coolest night of the season here….33.1°…

    Currently 36.9…calm

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    The 12Z GFS is awesome. Lots of active weather and periods of mountain snow, with dry, chilly days like today in between. Like November should be.

    Both the GFS and Euro have been looking a lot better the past couple runs. Hopefully they’re onto something. The models were painting a pretty dismal picture for us a day or so ago. The 12Z GFS looks anything but El-Nino like.

  8. first light windshield frost
    no wind fog and few sky clouds
    hello November

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    My low temp was at midnight, then my temp rose to about 49.8F before dropping back down to 44.4F as the east wind backed off early this morning.

    Hmmmm things of interest.
    I see the 00z EURO has a 938mb low up in Alaska this week.

    Hoping today’s 12z runs show something interesting for us as well….

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      938mb? That is very impressive. That can potentially be a very damaging windstorm.

  10. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I hit freezing for the first time this year. It was fantastic. Crisp fall air and whispy fog. Perfect way to start November off.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I hit freezing a couple times already in October, its pretty cold.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Ryan, you must have gotten below freezing when we got that modified arctic airmass the second week of October. Living in Walnut Grove you aren’t too far from me, and have similar radiational cooing conditions, and I hit 28 on the morning of the 11th.

      Perhaps you didn’t notice the freeze because the air was so dry. I woudn’t have guessed it was in the upper 20s that morning if it weren’t for my thermometer – there was no frost. This morning is certainly my frostiest of the season so far.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I’m thinking Tuesday night/Wednesday night might be better for a city wide frost/freeze as stronger high pressure develops east side. Assuming we’re under clear skies then I think the only problem is how strong is the offshore flow? Cross section models do not look overly strong, but stronger than last nights run.

      I imagine if we can keep offshore flow below 5mb the east wind may not make it to PDX during the overnight hours. With stronger high pressure east side it might get a bit chilly in the Columbia Basin pushing somewhat drier air westward over PDX metro…. I’m thinking this may be the best chance of a frost/freeze city-wide (Except for east of I-205 and near the Gorge.)

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I may have touched freezing over night one night but the lowest I remember seeing on my temp gauge during that period was 35. I have somewhat of a micro-climate at my place. Very often many places will get to or below freezing and I hover around 34/35 degrees.

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Lowest so far is 31F at Hillsboro…

  12. Frosty 32.6° this morning.

  13. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    High clouds must have kept the fog from forming last night. Clear air for the most part accross the west side of town. It was 31.6 when I left home at 6:00am.

    And a very nice large moon setting in the west.

  14. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    It is a nice frosty morning outside. My censor isn’t working so I don’t know what the temp is. 😦

  15. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    My highest wind last night was at 5 mph…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KHIO&table=1&banner=off

    Sucks to be in Hillsboro.

  16. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Temp has risen to 49.8F now

    Surface gradients
    As of 12 AM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -3.8mb | 0.5mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -4.5mb | 0.6mb Increase

    East wind has increased noticeable. Even hearing gusts now. My wind sensor is recording gusts over 30mph now.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    00z WRF-GFS looks like more of the same, but seeing signs that a more progressive and active pattern may be setting up after the 5th or so. It also takes that mega-deep 945mb low that was poised to scrape Alaska’s southern shore now 200 miles further south and east into the Gulf of Alaska.

    Only thing I see in the short term worth mentioning are foggy locations and light east wind.

    Surface gradients
    As of 11 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -3.3mb | 0.6mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -3.9mb | 0.4mb Increase

    Light E-NE wind has developed here.

  18. Anthony Bertolo - Gresham 500' says:

    Latest GFS gives us -3C… that’s about all the excitement in sight, and that’s not even exciting.

  19. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if half the media out there blames our next snow event on cloud seeding

  20. Tetra says:

    45F here.

  21. goducks09 says:

    I know its early, but I am praying that the models will give me something to get excited about here soon! C’mon!

  22. Chucktate says:

    Not sure if anyone has seen this article yet. This is scary stuff. What next cloning goats? Haha.. http://ph.news.yahoo.com/afp/20091101/tap-china-weather-beijing-snow-8d4ea94.html

  23. Tyler says:

    Check out the down sloping they had in Cut Bank yesterday, West wind 53 mph gusting to 70 at one time.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=tfx&sid=KCTB&num=72

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