Gloomy & Wet

Whew!  That was one gloomy, drippy, moist, yucky day.  Looks like everyone had at least some rainfall.  The heaviest amounts have been helped along by some generous orographic lift.  That’s lifting of a moist airmass as it passes over hills or mountains.  In the case of today the flow has been from the west/northwest.  That means the west slopes of the Cascades have been very efficient rain collectors.  I see Larch Mtn. Washington has over 1.50″.  Timberline Lodge is up to 1.62″ for the last 24 hours; some of that was snow early in the day before it changed to rain. 

Snow depth is dropping quickly in the Cascades and most of it should be gone by the early part of next week at the latest.  Timberline was up to 23″ and has now dropped to 16″.  Mt. Hood Meadows has dropped from 20 to 14″.  Looking ahead, there is no significant period of mountain snow in the next 7 days, so ski season won’t start REAL early.  But who knows, maybe a quick change is in the works in the week two period and we’ll be skiing by November 15th?  One can hope I suppose.

Speaking of next week…what a mess on the weather maps.  The tendency is definitely there for either split flow or ridging over the eastern Pacific/western USA.  But each model and runs within each model itself have been different.  Drew and I chose to leave the forecast dry for now through next Wednesday or Thursday.  No reason to put rain in the forecast now and then have to take it out later.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

42 Responses to Gloomy & Wet

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I just ran the 4km WV loop and it appears there is some slight enhancement along the front.

    Nothing to get too overly excited about.

  2. boydo3, N. Albany 500' says:

    Er edit that to read ” not far from our house”!

  3. boydo3, N. Albany 500' says:

    Welp, jack o lanterns are up and glowing in the warm moon lit October night. Don’t want to wander far in the dark. We actually had a Mt Lion (aka Cougar) kill and drag a deer not from our house. Scary, scary! More scary than climate change.

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    As Josh mentioned below I see Bellingham is now gusting to 48mph.

    Southerlies are picking up a bit in the Willamette Valley as well.

    Surface gradients
    As of 9 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-EUG: -3.2mb | 1.1mb Increase
    OLM-EUG: -8.0mb | 0.7mb Increase

  5. warmer or colder
    mere humans profess to know
    mother always wins

  6. Biochemist says:

    I read a scientic study that found a direct correlation with the industrialization of China in the 1980’s and Arctic warming. As China’s industries increased their unfiltered emissions, the particulates were swept up in the jet stream, carried northward into the Arctic and formed a thick, greenhouse trapping layer. The arctic warmed quite noticably because of the trapped, upper level haze. Has anyone else seen this study?

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

      I have not seen that study, but I have heard conjecture that all the pollution from China is actually reflecting sunlight and helping to cool the earth (In the Short Term!) and that it also may be causing the Jet-Stream over the Pacific to amplify and be less zonal in the winter which could be good or bad depending on where you are on the curve so to speak.

      I have seen no scientific proof for either, so take what I say with several grains of salt.

  7. Josh 'The Snowman" From Everett, WA who is upset he missed the winter weather meeting but brother Mat "The Salmon Killer" filled him in. says:

    In lieu of Austin’s name I figured I’d juice mine up a little too…lol.

    Looks like a nice windy night up here tonight. It’s already pretty blustery and they are calling for 35-45 sustained with gusts to 60…that should take care of the last of the leaves on me trees!!

  8. Ashley Watson says:

    need some help,

    I may be moving to sw washington and want to know if there are any communities 800-1100 feet in elevation that get good snowfall in the winter like 20+ inches. Even east side of Portland I would be willing to settle for but the elevation has to be above 1000 ft

    • Ashley – Most of the towns aren’t any higher than 250-300′, so you’ll have to be out in the boonies a litte. Yacolt and Amboy are slightly higher, but I think geography might have a bigger effect on snow than altitude, and you should take that into account.

      I’m at 750′ near BG lake, and I can tell you that my friends who are out in the hills NE of La Center and N of Yacolt seem to get 50% more snow than I do. I suspect this is because they’re under more of the influence of cold air flowing down the Lewis River, whereas I’m more in the drainage of Salmon Creek.

      Just something to consider.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I agree with Rob. There are very few actual towns or cities above 500′. Morton is up around 1000′ and tends to get snow at times. But you can always just live NEAR a larger town but up in the hills above it. Just east of Washougal, Battle Ground or Corbett/Gresham you can easily get up to 1500′. Same with Sandy and Estacada.

      The Buxton area north of Banks seems to get pretty good snow regularly too, in case you like Washington County.

    • having lived above the 1500 foot level in quite a few places just east of Estacada and Sandy, i can verify the mass amounts of snow those foothills get….i suppose the key question is the definition of community…if you dont need a close by grocery store, the possibilities of living in snow land are vastly improved…..

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

      I’ll have to second Mark’s comment about Buxton and also the hills around Gales Creek seem to do well (Forest Grove effect in full force I suspect). My wife owns property out there at between 750′ and 800′ in elevation. 36″ Chrismas eve last year. But if I could live anywhere I would choose Corbett.

  9. Jesse-Orchards says:

    *if Roseburg

  10. Snow level rises
    Shadowed giants lurk in mist
    Climate CHANGE certain

    http://www.fsvisimages.com/moho2/moho2.html

  11. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Looks like the South Willamette Valley and Umpqua Valley are getting some sun breaks and may make a run at upper 60s this afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised is Roseburg ends up being the warmest place in the state today.

    Socked in and hanging around 60 up here. Really only a couple degrees above average for the second to the last day of October.

  12. Relatively warm 60° here……Looks like Mississippi has gotten it’s share of severe weather today…

  13. Mark Nelsen says:

    For anyone that cares, I think the Corbett School sensor is finally up and running correctly. I installed new CWOP software and most important, the wind direction/speed has a new sensor. It actually has a SW wind for the first time in about 3 years!

  14. Partly sunny and 62.3°, Nice!

  15. When I woke up this morning I was briefly convinced there must have been some higher winds than were forecast overnight. Why? Three giant branches from a very large, very old tree in my courtyard and near (luckily ONLY near) my car. Even the May 2nd crazy squall didn’t bring as much down.

    But as I drove through the neighborhood, I didn’t see any further debris. Obviously no reports of anything amiss here, either, save for Rob’s post about it being pretty breezy. Sooo…I’m now moving on to a theory of focused sabotage from Mother Nature (or maybe just that tree). I’ve done something to really tick them off…

  16. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Southerly winds are backing off slowly. Earlier this morning it was rather breezy 15-25+ here. Now it’s 5-10mph. I see PDX-EUG has fallen off to -2.0mb down from -3.5mb at 2:00 AM.

  17. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    It’s warmer outside, than inside my house, lol…well almost. 😉

    I can say with certainty that 07-08 were cooler than any previous year at my station this decade, and despite the summer heat, ’09 at this point may end up as the third coolest this decade. But I wouldn’t say for one second that it is proof of a climate trend one way or another.

    Nate – I couldn’t source the site you list, so I can’t comment on its real agenda. Also, it really matters how you look at the data. It’s easy for either side to cherry pick points in time that will lend credence to their arguments.

  18. …just to pipe in for a bit on warming/cooling…..this deserves a read….
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091029/sc_nm/us_climate_canada_arctic_1

  19. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Looking at only a year or two and making a claim that the climate is completely changing in some horrible way makes absolutely no sense to me. You need to look at verifiable measurements over a much longer period of time. 30 years is a great amount of time to make any claims.

    I guess “Anomalies exist in nature something fierce” is the gist of what I’m trying to say.

    *Note* Both sides of the debate do this. /rant
    ——————————————-
    On to current weather:

    Getting mild outside again, up to 57 the last time I checked in Portland. I personally like the forecast and hope it verifies. I could see some fog forming and keeping us in the low-50s, but eh, as long as you’re within 4 – 5 degrees, people are fine. Though the difference between sunny and foggy all day is a bit more of a toughie.

  20. karlbonner1982 says:

    Mark, the temperatures you’re predicting for next week don’t make a lot of sense. The highs and lows are only about 10 or 12 degrees F apart from each other. If the weather is dry and ridgy about the only time that seems to happen is when we have a lot of fog. If that’s the case, our highs would only hit the low 50s at best and could easily stay in the 40s all day, at least once the inversion layer really sets in.

    I’ll keep my fingers crossed for sunny and low 60s next week, although we’d probably need a downsloping east wind of some sort to get it. We’d probably have better luck for 60-plus sunshine in the last week of February than in the first week of November!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Me thinks the combination of clouds and southerly winds would prevent us from cooling off much at night. If it was calm or light winds out of the north or east and clear then we would see dramatic drops in temps at night.

  21. karlbonner1982 says:

    It will be interesting to see what coast, valley, high desert, low desert, and mountain temps. are like next week should we get a strong ridge. Isn’t this the time of year when ridges can go either way – warmth or inversion – depending on nitpicky specifics?

  22. MasterNate says:

    Tetra,
    I just want the facts. I want to here it from my trusted source, FOX 12 NEWS. Global cooling would be a greater problem than Global warming, I believe. Crop failure and mass starvation with very high food prices would prevail. I believe we would adapt easier to warming than cooling. The only benifit I believe would be more exciting winters around here.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      In colder climates global warming might be a good thing, but for most of the continental US the extra summer heat and drought would more than offset any benefits caused by a longer growing season. About the only benefit that the Northwest might get out of a warmer climate is that we could grow more subtropical plants in our gardens instead of being limited to a few ultra-hardy varieties like the windmill palm.

  23. MasterNate says:

    Mark,
    Can you confirm any of this. The NW just came off the hottest summer in recorded history, I think, yet the US mean temp is at or below 30 year avg? They say the ocean temps are dropping? I just want to here it from a trusted source such as yourself. They also say that polar ice is growing and that summer meltoff at an all time low, so to speak.
    http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/
    Why isnt this on the news?

  24. Tetra says:

    Did heavy rain events use to cause localized power outages before modern shut-off sensors were installed on transformers?

  25. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    We went to Clackamas Town Center area this evening and it wasn’t really doing anything but coming back we hit mist at powell and got heavier and heavier mist as we went down 84. Certainly been misty here all day.

  26. MasterNate says:

    OK bloggers, I give you this. Very interesting links to discuss here. Who do I believe?

    http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

    • Tetra says:

      Believe anybody who doesn’t try to sacrifice our liberty/pursuit of happiness for safety weather we are in Global cooling or warming. :p

  27. Ben Randall says:

    thanks for the update mark

  28. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    First?

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