A Long Day

snapshotI went to 4 different schools in Woodland, Longview, and Clatskanie today. I actually enjoy traveling around the countryside, but it makes for a long day.  Whew!

So let’s talk weather.

SHORT RANGE: Snow totals were very impressive today. 22″ at Timberline, 5″ at Gov’t Camp, and around 18″ at Mt. Hood Meadows. Unfortunately all that is probably going to be gone by early next week at the latest. A warm front moves inland tomorrow night with clouds and light rain. Then we wait all the way until Friday night for the cold front to pass through. So we’ll have 36-48 hours of strongly orographic rainfall. Not much here in the Valleys during that period (less than .50″), but maybe 1-3″ in the mountains. And it WILL be all rain. Looks like snow levels may exceed 10,000′!

LONG RANGE: Previous discussion follows…(just kidding, had to do that for once). After the cold front passes late Friday night or early Saturday, it’s on to dry weather. The big change in models over the last 24 hours is a much stronger ridge developing over the West Coast. It doesn’t seem to matter which model…the trend is the same. That shunts rain farther to the north Saturday and Sunday. Then Monday and Tuesday storminess stays much farther offshore OR digs farther to the south (depends on model), keeping the ridging over us. Drew and I looked at each other and muttered the phrase “El Nino???“. We were probably being too dramatic, but the effect is the same; it’s looking pretty dry after Saturday morning.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

26 Responses to A Long Day

  1. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I can’t believe how mild the new 7-day looks.

    Looking at the models, I wouldn’t think they supported temps anywhere near that warm. It takes a bit more than weak ridging and 850 mb temps between 2-5C to get low 60s in November. I’m also trying to figure out how we’re gonna hit 65 on Friday.

  2. Austin-who used to live in Ridgefield but now lives in vancouver which sucks lower elevation says:

    Ok first off mark Don’t u ever say th E word again 2nd its raining just incase non of u knew lol

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I apologize…I’ll try to avoid using the word until after Thanksgiving.

    • Austin-who used to live in Ridgefield but now lives in vancouver which sucks lower elevation says:

      ok fair enough if things havnt changed after thanksgiving u can use that word but not much and u know wat im going to knock on wood since u probably jynxed us already here comes a boring winter all thanks to Mark lol

  3. Light rain…..47.2F……0.06″ so far

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    And it looks like the SPC actually added that tornado report to their site today, nice seeing that shiny red dot.

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Weatherdan, I suppose this crazy weather had to have ended at some point! 🙂 I like this cool weather, and now at least we aren’t seeing anymore endless sunshine… Thank you Jesus.

    We saw many, no, “TOO MANY” days of convection across northwest Oregon in a 60 day period that would probably summarize an entire years worth of activity. No joke.

  6. goducks09 says:

    Wow, it was a cold day today…cool and crisp. Diggin’ it.

  7. Tetra says:

    Link included. http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm

    *The page itself is a rather long list*

  8. Tetra says:

    That’s because all the exciting weather has been shunted EAST!!

    *see disclaimer on bottom*

    ‘Major’ winter storm strikes Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming
    Five times the normal amount of snow in Cheyenne already – and
    here we go again – 28 Oct 09
    Huge snowstorm hammers Wyoming and Colorado – Up to four
    feet of snow possible – 28 Oct 09
    An inch of snow per hour across Nebraska Panhandle – 28 Oct 09
    More cold on the way – 10-15 degrees below normal – 24 Oct 09
    Coldest Ever 1st half of October in Minnesota & Wisconsin – 18 Oct 09
    See Record Low Temperatures across the US

    Credit goes to Iceagenow.com

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    Coldest day of the season so far here in Salem. Lots of clouds,and temps in the low 50,s. None of the forecast models point to anything interesting over the next 360 hours. Just the typical mid fall crummy weather Oregon is famous for. Looks like Salem will go another October without a frost. I would like to see some good old fashioned storminess for a change. How about it Mark?

  10. Runrain says:

    Don’t mind dry at all for the football game this Saturday!

  11. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    MasterNate, I don’t think this is something we can say yet. Solar Cycle 24 has been delayed longer than usual, I think what will really matter is what the max of SC24 is…if it remains 60-90 sunspot number, we could be in for some good cooling. There is no solid proof of anything yet.
    That being said. I think we could be in for something very cold withing the next two decades becauseof the sun but that’s just my own OPINION.

  12. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Anyone have a up to date monthly temp departure for PDX?

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

      PDX +0.0. HIO -3.2 – maybe 1.5 too low, my station -.9, all as of yesterday.

  13. “previous discussion follows” – this constant NWS statement drives me mad! Very funny, Mark!

  14. El Nino is a nasty word Mark/Drew…You might get banned from this blog!!..

    43.4°

  15. SE Bob says:

    Any thoughts as to what Halloween evening might have in store? The fprcasts seem to agree with rain early and dry for the evening. Just wanting to know what to tell the kids as they nervously watch the forcast.

  16. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    It’s a month of two early for the el-nino to really be affecting us. This is just more of the ridging we have been having for the last…oh year and a half now, imo. Really, when was the last time we have seen any sustained period (weeks) of zonal flow.

    Like I said, above average precip is not permitted here!! It looks like that rule will be broken this month since we are so close, but not by that much.

  17. MasterNate says:

    Or try this,
    aftermathnews.wordpress.com/…/nasa-solar-cycle-may-cause-dangerous-global-cooling-in-a-few-years-time/

  18. MasterNate says:

    I’m sure this is old news to everyone out here but I have yet to hear about this until now. Is this a validatided publication or just another wacky prediction? solar cycle 24 global cooling

    Just google the above phrase. Not sure if it came up as a link.

  19. AdamInAumsville says:

    Chilly 31.8F this morning.

  20. Sandman Aloha says:

    Ohhhh nooooo!!!! What is next split flow?

    Ok calm down. Much to early for that. 😀

  21. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Mark, thanks for the update. I concur with you and Drew about the “El Nino” muttering. I’ve noticed this week the models start out wet then dry things out over time.

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
    Getting back to a previous post…

    AdamInAumsville Says:
    October 27, 2009 at 10:43 pm
    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/movies/gmsirbbm/gmsirbbmjava.html
    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
    Adam, nice link…
    I just created a zoomed WV map of the low at its peak probably near 950mb.

    Sure was a beauty.

  22. Ben Randall says:

    Thanks For the update … FIRST FINALLY!

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