Winter Weather Meeting Wrap-Up

junk.jpgThis is one of the slides (are they still called that???) in my wrap up of Winter ’08-’09 at OMSI on Saturday.  There’s definitely a bit to discuss on here.  Then here is another image showing just the past 10 years at PDX.  Not much snow most years is there?  But when we do get a good winter lately, it’s lots of fun!junk2.jpgYou can click on either image to get a much better view.

In case you missed it, I’ll attempt to move some of the comments from the previous post onto this one.  Several of you put your summary in the comments, which is great.

This is what I got out of the meeting, which took place during those thunderstorms which meant I was outside or in the hallway during parts of two presentations:  Two forecasters thought we’d have somewhat typical weak El Nino conditions.  The wet season may start big and then peter out…and snow accumulations could be pretty skimpy to none in the lowlands.  The third went crazy with snow; Kyle Dittmer went for 6 snow events here in Portland.  Hmmm, that would be a winter to remember.  Of course that’s exceedingly rare, but he was also basing it somewhat on the lack of sunspots as well.  Feel free to add your own comments as well.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

58 Responses to Winter Weather Meeting Wrap-Up

  1. Ron in Oregon City says:

    I know the Kyle Dittmer placed some emphasis on sunspot activity(or lack thereof) and colder or snowier winters. How well is this documented. He mentioned, or someone at the AWS meeting mentioned a book. Anyone have that info?
    Thanks,
    Ron

  2. Wet 52.1°…….0.20″ rain so far

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    As I said before, pretty much every cold front passage, there is lightning. Isn’t that wierd? Been like this since September started.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Hi everyone! I somehow got my cord to charge, its not completely broken, but today I’ll try to buy a new one.

    Darn, I should have been here earlier to warn about those lightning strikes, I tend to see this nearly every time it happens, believe me.

    Right now I am getting extremely heavy rain, with a possible rumble of thunder I heard a minute ago. Interesting morning indeed.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Here are those strikes:

      I didn’t expect THIS many though…

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      That is very amazing how much lightning there was. A good storm rolled through in the middle of the night here, with lightning and thunder. There has been a lot of t-storm activity for October.

  5. Tyler says:

    It’s amazing how similar the models are at almost 10 days out. Looks like no matter what, the central/eastern US is in for a huge trough, and we get a temporary, but fairly strong ridge, hopefully it will last through trick-or-treat time!

  6. Austin-Used to live in ridgefield but moved to Vancouver which sucks lower elevation says:

    Tyler i live in felida which is only like 10 miles away from ridgefield but its a big difference in elevation. anyways can’t wait for crazy winter weather to get her.

  7. PrivatePilotWA says:

    Well I’m back online and ready for another wild winter. Just bought a new Vantage Pro 2 – other one died and this year I’m in a new location. Most will probably remember I was in Castle Rock last winter – well I moved to Battle Ground, well still moving, but I have priorities and made sure the new station was up and transmitting. Weather Underground Station ID is KWABATTL16. Here’s hoping for another exciting winter.

  8. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Sitting right at 50F, should we expect rain very late tonight?

  9. muxpux says:

    1 lone lightniong strike off the coast..hmmmm…haha.

    anyways, i suppose its gonna be too cloudy tonight/am to see this meteor shower?

  10. Mark Nelsen says:

    Yes, after all these years I’m still a rabid weather geek. I’m holding in my hands a SHINY new anemometer (including direction) for the Davis VP2 up at Corbett Elementary School. Literally shiny and also I suppose in the Firefly wording as well. It just showed up in the mail here at work. Looks far better than the one up there now!

    • Tyler says:

      Looking forward to accurate readings now!

      Is the school DW3605??? or is that your station?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      No, that DW3605 is a brand new station. A friend of mine that lives about 6 miles up Larch Mtn. Road. He’s at the end of civilization at 1,800′. Very little wind there in the deep woods, but plenty of rain!

      The school is offline since the computer is getting replaced as well. My house is CW2654 and the school is CW2664.

    • Jory (Sandy) says:

      So Mark, does that mean you are going up a rickety old ladder to replace the anemometer? Or will it be the school custodian? Or maybe the custodian holding the ladder for you? 🙂

      Is this a gift from you to the school, or mayhaps a ‘KPTV Community Outreach’ activity?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Yes, normal people donate to the Booster Club or PTA. I’ll donate an anemometer…seemed appropriate. I’ve already been on the roof, it’s actually a pretty straightforward walk up and the sensor is only at chest-height.

    • Tetra says:

      I wish you LOTS of luck setting that up. 🙂

      I bet the science *geeks* will be happy. 😉

      52.7F

  11. Sunny all day here so far, currently 62.1°

  12. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    The low level overcast is lifting and starting to break up, but there are only two-three hours left for sun induced temps to rise. HIO currently 54, up 2 degrees from 10am.

    I’m thinking now that HIO doesn’t make it above 60 today, short of the forecast high of 63. Unless south winds kick in later this evening ahead of the next front.

  13. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    52 and overcast at 10:35 in Hillsboro. I’m beggining to wonder if this overcast is going to burn off today and if so, maybe keep the highs in the upper 50’s rather than low 60’s.

    High clouds passing overhead may be keeping the low level overcast from burning off.

  14. Tyler says:

    If the Euro is to be believe, it could be a dry night for trick-or-treating for the kids. If the 12z GFS plays out, start cutting holes in the garbage bags now!

  15. Overcast, socked-in 51.1F this am…

  16. 38.2° and clear skies this morning.

  17. Austin-Used to live in ridgefield but moved to Vancouver which sucks lower elevation says:

    ya he does tyler its just im going to miss it a little got some good snow there when vancouver wasnt so its going to be tough if i hear they r getting like 2 more inches of snow then vancouver i might cry lol

    • Tyler says:

      What part of Vancouver? Maybe you’ll get some more east winds here. Sometimes the warmer air invading will pass right over this area because of the east wind.

  18. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    So here’s the 00z version of this low…again, something to keep an eye on is all, but there are definite possibilities here.


  19. Austin-Used to live in ridgefield but moved to Vancouver which sucks lower elevation says:

    The third guy based on sun spots lol thats funny well wont be going with him anyways the El Nino is way to weak to make forcast on a El Nino winter and i like how some forcasters put El Nino=No snow for low lands which is not true if i do remember right some good winter weather has came with El Ninos but we will see anyways I havnt been on for awhile college is burning me but happy i remembered about the blog when i got online:)

    • Tyler says:

      Love your name Austin…lol. Too bad we won’t have any more reports from there. I think Jacob lives out there though????

  20. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    So, 00z shows something interesting…a low pressure coming into about Forks as this low is deepening, doesn’t show anything REALLY deep at this point but you’ll have to take a look for yourself:

    I wouldn’t normally pay attention to a low that looks like this but I do know the jet stream is suppose to ramp up around this time:


    There will be a very strong exit Jet based on the models.
    The 500mb flow isn’t optimal but there is plenty of time to watch this.

  21. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Guys, I might not be able to comment on here for at least a week… I think the power cord to my lap top is broken!

    I have to buy a new one, see ya when I get it 🙂

  22. Tetra says:

    And guess where all that moisture will wind up at when it does hit.

  23. goducks09 says:

    Whew, looks like the jet really fires up by the end of next week…

    http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_300_10d.html

  24. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Hmmm… Looks like a regime shift is underway in the models. 🙂

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I agree. Warm weak rainy systems this week turn colder and stronger next week???

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Possibly, although the 12z was the only gfs run showing a regime change to pretty wet. I haven’t seen the 18z yet though, continuing trend? Euro is definitely showing a cooler and more active solution, it’s been showing that for awhile now. I really hope so!

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Hope to see the first cold storms that dump lots of snow down to the coast range, say down to 3,000ft or so?

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

      18z missing in action as far as I can tell. Oh well the 00z should be out any minute.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      There was 2 runs yesterday that had flipped cold. I think it was the 12Z or 18Z yesterday got close to modified arctic air around Halloween but quickly flipped back.

      00Z today sticks with lots of moisture and cool.

  25. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    He said he was basing 85% of his forecast on that? Really? That’s going a bit to far, especially without knowing what exactly thier role is in our atmosphere. Let’s just say he put “them” out there 🙂

    Mark’s right, Rian, quit horsin around.

    OH, FYI, forgot to tell everyone this, I spoke with Pete for a bit on Saturday, asked him about what he was thinking about 1968 as an analog, he said it was actually his #6. He was optimistic that could actually move up as we go forward, he said it was something he was keeping his peripherel on, now that would be AWESOME, wouldn’t it?

    If anyone saw the 12z analogs today there was a 1955 at the top, and 2 1995’s in there, anyone remember what 1995 brought us? hehe, my mouth is watering!
    First, here’s the D+8 Ensemble Analogs:

    Here’s what I was referring to, the D+11 12z analogs.

    And here’s your D+11 Ensemble Analogs:
    See the 1968’s in there? They’ve been there quite a few times lately!

    • The winter of ’68-’69 was great. I was a young lad living in Eugene and missed a week of school because of all that snow.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I was conceived in the winter of 1968-1969…eewww.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      WOW, you meant born, not conceived right? HAHA Maybe your parents were locked up in the house during the snow? ok, PG time…

    • ….ah yes… the 68-69 winter…my mind drifts back…………..
      how i fondly remember walking my 15 year old girlfriend home thru the ice covered trees bending over the road, with the pleasant crack and boom of branches and trunks breaking under the weight constantly going on…..
      …catching my first “air” sledding over the retaining walls in the bowl at old Clackamas high school…..

    • The winter of 1968-69…Maybe the best cold, snow winter of my life…..Stormy in November…Then cold/snow December thru January with a great ice storm thrown in…….Maybe what Kyle is ordering????

    • Runrain says:

      ’68-’69 was the best. When the high is 10, the low 8, and its snowing and the east wind is howling, it doesn’t get any better.

      I enjoyed the AMS meeting Saturday and was impressed with the speakers knowledge and quality delivery (especially the “voice in the sky” guy on the phone from Corvallis). That was kind of eerie but well done. Some of the discussion went a bit over my head (always thought PDO was some kind of hand held electronic device, and ENSO something you pour into a drain to unclog it). Nonetheless, I got the gist of the remarks, as Mark summarized above. Sounds like we still don’t know what El Ninos will or won’t do, but that the next 10 years or so could bring some valuable enlightenment as to the ultimate effects of the phenomenon.

      Thank you to all the AMS guys for their insight and time. My first meeting and I was impressed!

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Runrain, its interesting that there was a high of 10F and a low of 8F. I guess there atmosphere must of been maxed out with how cold it was going to get. Or there was cloud cover/windy conditions at night, because you would think there would of been below 0F readings that night….

      Temp at 47.7F, can’t wait for the fog.

  26. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oh yes it looks like we are due for a big one. Thanks for the post!

  27. Tetra says:

    If we keep having ridgey winters with skimpy rainfall how long will it take for the landscape to look like Pendelton?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Yeah I thought of that, this is supposed to be the driest year in the last 20 years I believe? Not good at all.

  28. Mback says:

    Work ended early for me today. School called because my son had a headache and a cough. I picked him up and 10 minutes later he was fine. Funny, how did he know to use my old trick!!!

  29. Mark Nelsen says:

    Rian,

    Get back to work! If your boss knows you are hanging out on the Fox12 Weather Blog you’ll get fired…

  30. Mback says:

    Kyle told me he was basing 85% of his forecast on sunspot activity. He does this with his forecast every year. The current El Nino is rather weak and the atmosphere is not responding to it very much, if it all. It will be interesting to watch the Nino regional readings to see just how this El Nino plays out. My bet is it will diminish and we will go back to neutral conditions.

    Rian

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