The Big Winter Meeting

October 15, 2009

snapshotObviously it’s going to be really wet Saturday, so here’s something to do.  It’s time for the 17th annual What Will the Winter Be Like meeting at OMSI.  Hard to believe we’ve been doing this since the early 1990s!  It used to be held in a small conference room and maybe 15-20 people would show up.  Now we regularly see more than 100.  You are invited…the event is open to the public.  The meeting basically consists of 4­-5 forecasters getting up and giving their thoughts about what might happen during the upcoming winter.  A lot of times they are wrong, sometimes they are right, but there is always lots of good discussion.  Also lots of El Nino, MJO, QBO, and other big phrases.  The event is held in the auditorium and lasts about 2 hours.  I will be there, but I just give a review of the previous year’s weather.

Okay, let’s talk weather.  Rain is the big story.  00z models all give us quite a bit of rainfall, at least 1-2″ in the Valleys between midday tomorrow and Saturday evening.  Now our RPM shows 3.68″ rainfall, the GFS looks like 4″ or so as well.  The WRF-GFS doesn’t look quite as wet, and the NAM goes nuts with maybe 4″.  We’ll see, it’s quite a narrow line of rainfall along the cold front tomorrow evening.  We’ll see…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen