Looking Colder…

snapshotLots of sunshine again today with temps finally reaching 70 degrees.  So I suppose if we actually would have seen offshore flow this week (remember that was the initial plan about 6 days ago), temps in the mid 70s should have been doable.  But the warm 70 temps will soon be a memory won’t they?

Not much has changed in the somewhat historic cold snap coming this weekend.  Arctic air is pouring west of the Continental Divide this evening…one would think it’s winter with temps in the Flathead Valley heading down into the teens overnight with snow.  This is the first surge of chilly air;  the leading edges of it come through the Columbia River Gorge tomorrow afternoon/evening.  Then a strong upper-level shortwave rotates south from west of Hudson’s Bay Saturday night and Sunday.  That one reinforces the chilly airmass.  So both Saturday and Sunday we’ll see gusty east wind in the Metro Area.  Nothing too crazy there, maybe gusts 50-55 mph.  Temp forecasts for Saturday and Sunday are tough.  If it was Halloween I’d say highs around 48-50 degrees, especially Sunday.  So I went with 55-60, coolest on Sunday with the 2nd push of colder air.

The airmass coming in is going to be very dry…dewpoints at least down into the 20s.  Couple that with clear skies and the calm wind locations should have a hard freeze Saturday and Sunday nights.  I think the only spots that will avoid this will be east Portland out through the west end of the Gorge.  Will the wind drop off Saturday or Sunday night at PDX?  Seems unlikely with 6-7 mb of gradient through the Gorge and a cool airmass, but it could happen.  Cooler east wind hangs on at the Airport overnight much better than the warmer wind we get in early Fall.

Okay, out of time for now.  Still looks wet beginning Tuesday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

61 Responses to Looking Colder…

  1. Andrew Johnson says:

    Down to 17 in Joseph, OR already.

  2. Current dew points are 23@Troutdale, 27@PDX, and 41@Hillsboro. Dry air hasn’t quite made it westside just yet.

  3. Yevgeniy says:

    yea it was down i am guessing, man lets bring in the cold air!

  4. Cross-cascade and gorge gradients increasing with time…

    Currently 59.4F Td 50.0 RH 71%

  5. Tyler says:

    I see that JR’s station is just starting to pick up a NE wind. Humidity is 65% right now. His station is at 68th and Flavel.

    http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=english&station=KORPORTL110

  6. …the tops of the trees here are just starting to stir….

  7. Jory says:

    I have a DP of 35%, and the temp has dropped 7 degrees in the last half hour! (from 68 to 61)

  8. Tyler says:

    Yahoo…east wind at Troutdale…dewpoint down 11 degrees in the last hour.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KTTD&table=1&banner=off

  9. Beautiful October day!!….

    61.7F….waiting for….east winds…..

  10. Tetra says:

    62F outside and sunny. Low in the low 40s.

  11. Tyler says:

    Bellingham feeling the outflow now, warm temps, low dewpoints.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72

  12. PaulB/Eugene says:

    This looks like a good weekend for the pumpkin patch…plants are probably already on their way to becoming compost….this weekend will certainly do them in….

    Predicted lows:

    PDX 37
    SLE 29
    CVO 25
    EUG 26
    HIO 28
    OLM 21
    SEA 35
    GEG 18
    SENECA -2
    PDT 25
    BLI 29

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Looking at 12z WF-GFS PDX/Gorge doesn’t lose the east wind until Tuesday night. The strongest downslope may be on Monday Night/Tuesday as a deep 970mb low is shown at 130 W, 44 N.

  14. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Really cool looking cloud structure from NY after the link. It is a new cloud type called asperatus:

    http://www.wired.com/science/planetearth/magazine/17-10/st_clouds

    • Jory says:

      You sure they didn’t lift that image from the movie ‘The day after tommorow’? 🙂

      I don’t know, if I would see that cloud overhead, I’d seriously consider heading for cover!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Do you think there is even a slight possibility of us seeing a cloud formation like that? Not likely! That is one beautiful cloud shot, thanks for sharing!

  15. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Missoula MT is 28F right now, brrrr…. Their high temps are going to be our low temps for the weekend.

  16. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Right on queue!

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1244 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2009

    …COLDER NIGHTS WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEKEND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON…
    …TURNING WETTER NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON…

    AN EARLY AUTUMN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IS DESCENDING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY…AND HAS ALREADY REACHED THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAIN FORCE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS IS DIRECTED EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS…ENOUGH IS AIMED OUR WAY SO THAT THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPILL THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

    WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TYPICAL ARCTIC AIR MASSES IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER…ITS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL SPREAD VERY DRY AIR INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
    THIS DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COOLEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

    NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S THE NEXT 3 OR 4 NIGHTS. AT THIS POINT…THE COLDEST NIGHTS LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IN SOME AREAS WILL BE THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EAST WINDS. AREAS WHERE THE WINDS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL TEND TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO MECHANICAL MIXING OF THE AIR. THUS SOME NIGHTS COULD SEE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGES BETWEEN THE COLDEST AND WARMEST AREAS…AND WILL MAKE PINPOINTING LOW TEMPERATURES DIFFICULT.

    NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE ACTIVE AS THE FIRST STRONGER STORM OF AUTUMN SETS UP OFF THE COAST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK…WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND RISING SEAS EARLY IN THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF THIS CHANGE LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. CURRENTLY…THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS ARE INITIALLY HEADED TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA…BUT THOSE OF US IN NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SHOULD SEE OUR SHARE OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

    IF YOU HAVE ANY TENDER PLANTS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD…BE SURE TO TAKE ANY NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT THEM. YOU WILL LIKELY WANT TO DISCONNECT OUTDOOR HOSES FROM FAUCETS AS WELL.
    FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION…VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 1 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -0.5mb | 0.1mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -1.4mb | 0.2mb Increase
    OTH-PDX: -1.8mb | 0.2mb Increase

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Colder air approaching….

    Easterly flow has overtaken the entire Columbia Basin, eastern Gorge, and now developing at Corbett.
    Dewpoints are plummeting now with Moses Lake showing a DP of 4F.

    Surface gradient
    As of 12:00 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -0.5mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    TTD-DLS: -1.2mb | No Change
    OTH-PDX: -1.6mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    These will only strengthen as we head into the afternoon hours and increase all night.

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      How low can DP go into the negative numbers?

    • Aleta-West Gresham says:

      Wind is picking up here in the last couple of minutes. Rob did you get my message on the e-mail list?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yes I did. If you received an e-mail saying “weather to weather” then you should be receiving e-mails from us all.

      A drift of east wind has developed here also.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oops Lol “welcome to weather”*

    • Aleta-West Gresham says:

      That’s the problem i’m not receiveing anything!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      No worries. I won’t be using the e-mail list for awhile. Have a nice day.

  19. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    So what sort of winds can one expect down in the gorge on Saturday morning/afternoon? I changed my hike since my friend could make it out to Lava and will be hiking Wahkeena/Multnomah loop.

  20. Tetra says:

    What do you call it when October and November become combined weather wise?

  21. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    34 degrees in Spokane with NE winds currently. Actually colder than overnight.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

      oops,

      I see Jesse already mentioned Spokane.

  22. boydo3, N. Albany 500' says:

    Set my alarm for 4:15 this morn. Woke up and saw a beautiful bright moon. Uncovered my homemade 10″ reflector telescope and aimed it at the impact site. Had a couple issues with a foggy eyepiece. By 4:45 it was quite evident that the visible plume wasn’t visible. Dud. Went back to bed.
    But hey! The weather forecast is still interesting!

  23. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Arctic front appears to be cruising across the state with relative ease this morning. Bellingham’s wind has switched to northerly within the last two hours, and the DP is down to 30. Spokane is down to 34, Dp 21, with NE winds.

    Missoula, in the heart of the airmass spilling over our side of the Continental Divide, is down to 22, DP 13.

    Judging by visible satellite, the front is draped roughly from just south of Bellingham to just north of Pullman currently. Should clear Portland by later tonight.

    Looking at the models, there has been no sign of backing off yet. In fact the 12Z NAM kicks it up a notch again with the cold, as opposed to the 06Z.

    45 and cloudy here, with onshore flow ahead of the front.

    • Just visited with a friend that was here from Missoula (headed back home this morning) and he said they were expecting low temps to be near zero in that location….

  24. 35.3° this morning, looks like another sunny day.

  25. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    06z GFS

    Still gets the metro area down into the single digit dp’s by Sunday evening. Only shows a high of 51 for Hillsboro on Sunday, same PDX. And it’s definitely holding the onset of precip off until later Tuesday, same as the 00z but looks more unsettled in the long term than the runs yesterday did.

  26. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    East winds!!!!!!!!! 🙂

  27. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    I think during the year 2003 at halloween temps that night dropped into the upper 20s, I thought that was fairly impressive. Then later on in the fall/winter season (late December early January) we got blasted by arctic air, lots of snow and freezing rain.

    Now we have this unusually cold air coming in before mid October. Hmmmmm… something epic is coming our way for this winter.

  28. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    If I am extremely lucky I could see lower 20s overnight this weekend. :0

  29. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Quick question: what are the chances that we get a hard freeze in Forest Grove either Friday or Saturday?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I’d say very good chance, but I’m thinking more Saturday and Sunday night.

  30. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Mark, thanks for the update.

    I do think Corbett will see their first 60+mph gust of the season, and Three Corner Rock should be insane. I also doubt the wind dies off overnight yeah perhaps PDX westward, but it’s iffy from PDX to I-205….

  31. Yevgeniy says:

    i want snow already! god this taking forever! haha

  32. Kirk says:

    . . . . or not

  33. Yevgeniy says:

    1st?!! woo i want it to be colder!

  34. Kirk says:

    1st . . .

  35. Tetra says:

    50.7F The artic air is on it’s way! 😉 I wonder what the temp on the dark-side of the moon where the alies are is?

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