Chilly Air Moving In

snapshotWhew, I see the entire metro area is in the low 50s at this hour.  Time to turn on the heat, or at least it will be by morning.  Hard to believe that just yesterday I was standing on my deck watching the sunset in a lot less clothing (but I did have some on!) with a warm easterly wind blowing.  That’s all history now.  As expected the total precipitation has been pathetic so far.  In this setup the main action should be in the convective showers behind the cold front tomorrow.  Even then we won’t get huge amounts of rainfall.

I’m still a bit under the weather tonight;  funny how I felt better over the weekend then feel worse after coming back to work.  What’s up with that???

Moving on…after the cool air departs Wednesday, we get into a slightly warmer westerly flow Thursday and Friday.  Then another cold trough digs down directly over us Saturday.  This is a pattern that would give us waves of cold air and chances for snow if it was in mid-winter.  But it’s not, so  just another cooldown for Saturday.  After that ridging builds in for warmer weather Sunday and beyond.

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

72 Responses to Chilly Air Moving In

  1. RobD says:

    Your blog is so informative … ..I just bookmarked you….keep up the good work!!!! 🙂

  2. JimmyBean says:

    I don’t know If I said it already but …I’m so glad I found this site…Keep up the good work I read a lot of blogs on a daily basis and for the most part, people lack substance but, I just wanted to make a quick comment to say GREAT blog. Thanks, 🙂

    A definite great read..Jim Bean

  3. Tnelson says:

    Hey, great blog…but I don’t understand how to add your site in my rss reader. Can you Help me, please 🙂

  4. …hey, um…this seems kinda important….

    TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 6
    NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
    724 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009

    …A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
    COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM THE
    CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER…

    …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
    WASHINGTON – BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE
    OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA…

    RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
    A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD IMPACT THE
    ADVISORY REGION LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PERSONS
    IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM
    THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY
    EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
    – PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
    WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

    THIS MESSAGE IS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE DATA… OBSERVED TSUNAMI
    AMPLITUDES… HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND FORECAST MODELS.

    A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES

    LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
    ———————— —– —— ——- ———–
    APIA WEST SAMOA 13.8S 171.8W 1829UTC 0.70M/2.3FT
    PAGO PAGO AMER. SAMOA 14.3S 170.7W 1825UTC 1.57M/5.1FT
    RAROTONGA COOK IS. (NZ 21.2S 159.8E 1950UTC 0.54M/1.8FT
    PAPEETE FR. POLYNESIA 17.5S 149.6W 2137UTC 0.14M/0.5FT
    PORT VILA VANUATU 17.8S 168.3E 2239UTC 0.18M/0.6FT
    NAWILIWILI KAUAI HI 22.0N 159.4W 0015UTC 0.20M/0.7FT
    KAWAIHAE HI 20.0N 155.8W 0009UTC 0.14M/0.7FT
    HONOLULU OAHU HI 21.3N 157.9W 0031UTC 0.16M/0.5FT
    KAHULUI MAUI HI 20.9N 156.5W 0113UTC 0.36M/1.2FT
    THE PEAK TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES HAVE PASSED IN HAWAII. THE MAXIMUM
    AMPLITUDE WAS RECORDED AT THE TIDE GAGE IN KAHULUI. OBSERVATIONS
    IN HAWAII SUPPORT FORECASTS OF 10 TO 60CM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
    AND OREGON COASTS. TSUNAMIS OF 50CM AMPLITUDE CAN GENERATE STRONG
    CURRENTS DANGEROUS TO THOSE VERY NEAR OR IN THE OCEAN. THE
    TSUNAMI IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND REACH ITS MAXIMUM APPROXIMATELY
    ONE AND A HALF HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL ARRIVAL. TSUNAMI
    ARRIVAL TIMES AND OTHER AMPLITUDE FORECASTS ARE LISTED IN
    THE WEB SITE BELOW.

    TIME – TIME OF MEASUREMENT
    AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
    IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
    VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).

    PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
    MAGNITUDE – 8.0
    TIME – 0948 AKDT SEP 29 2009
    1048 PDT SEP 29 2009
    1748 UTC SEP 29 2009
    LOCATION – 15.6 SOUTH 172.0 WEST
    – SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
    DEPTH – 21 MILES/33 KM

    THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII WILL
    ISSUE MESSAGES FOR HAWAII AND OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
    OUTSIDE THE STATES AND PROVINCES LISTED ABOVE.

    TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
    STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE
    WATER IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
    IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE
    HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS… BOATS… AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY
    CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

    THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 120 MINUTES OR SOONER IF
    THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
    UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
    WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

    PZZ750-655-650-673-670-565-535-530-545-560-455-540-450-356-
    775-353-350-255-250-CAZ039>046-087-034-035-515-006-506-508-
    509-514-505-002-001-ORZ022-002-021-001-300454-
    .CON.PAAQ.TS.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
    COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO
    BORDER TO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER
    724 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009

    …A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
    COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM THE
    CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON BORDER…

    PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
    WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

    TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
    STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
    WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
    IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
    WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
    TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
    SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

    SANTA BARBARA-CA 2111 PDT SEP 29 SAN FRANCISCO-CA 2131 PDT SEP 29
    LA JOLLA-CA 2116 PDT SEP 29 CHARLESTON-OR 2132 PDT SEP 29
    CRESCENT CITY-CA 2120 PDT SEP 29 SEASIDE-OR 2205 PDT SEP 29
    FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
    WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

  5. muxpux says:

    also, snow on the ground at Gov’t camp!

  6. muxpux says:

    that cell over longview is INTENSE! it is LOUD out there. and cold, got 45 at the house.

    i was watching it half expecting it to start mixing with snow! haha

  7. Because of that hail storm just before 5 my rainfall total for the day is now up to 0.75″. Still have hail on the deck and lawn…90 minutes later.

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Nice strong cell south of Gresham moving towards Boring. Wouldn’t be surprised if there were some additional lightning strikes with this.

  9. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I heard that big tsunami killed nearly 40 people.

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Alright, what ever just hit me is some sort of thunderstorm. No thunder, but this shower started with winds that seemed like 40+ mph and now I am having VERY heavy rain/hail.

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Shoot, my GRLevel 2 radar is not updating…

  12. Just had an intense, short lived, hail storm. Saw a couple flashes of lightning. Temp cooled down to 51°.

  13. Tetra says:

    No rain since that noon downburst and the classic brief gusty winds……………who needs the rain anyways.

    It just turned 60F as soon as I was about to say it wasn’t going to happen. *axe falls on Tetra*

  14. Yevgeniy says:

    well i had a phone with me if only i could take pictures while driving haha

  15. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Well im taking a nap now, see ya in a little bit.

  16. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Radar now shows this squall weakening in terms of reflectivity. But it might still pack a punch, who knows.

  17. Yevgeniy says:

    GUYS! Timmy I saw a cold funnel cloud form (Tornado like) and it did not touch the ground, but it was at 2:50pm right on I-205 in Vancouver, Washington

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Not surprised Yevgeniy, glad you got to see one, I was hoping today I would actually take a snap shot of one but my chances are almost gone if these storms remain east.

  18. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Well, we are getting closer to that if this continues… Remember September 6th folks, anything can happen at this point.

  19. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Long line of possible t-storms from SW Clackamas County to central Multnomah County. Look impressive…

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      (Hoping this line would both intensify and grow in size…)

      15 minutes later…

      BEEP BEEP BEEP “SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING”

      …”70 MPH WINDS”…

      Boy do I dream alot!

  20. …just had a nice flash of lighting here….

  21. Tetra says:

    No T-storms in this area to be found but we had steady rain around noon that brought me .16 of an inch.

    Temp has finally climbed to 59F.2F I still have 1 hour to go before I call it a highs-in-the-50s day.

  22. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Recent lightning strikes near Salem and Astoria.

    Several others around as well.

    SPC Thermodynamics
    As of 2:30 PM
    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
    SB CAPE: 250J/kg (No CAP)
    ML CAPE: 250J/kg
    MU CAPE: 500J/kg
    LI: -1
    Mid-Level Lapse Rates: 7.5C/km
    Low-Level Lapse Rates: 7.5C/km

    Upper Air Analysis
    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
    850mb: +2c
    500mb: -26c to -28c

  23. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Well, it appears some CG’s struck Marion County earlier, and Icekeeg is now mentioning hail…

    Looks like we got thunderstorms. Not bad.

  24. …annnnd that was over in less than two minutes.

  25. I’ve got some small hail coming in with this cell

  26. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I was busy today, did I miss anything at all since my last comment? did any showers look impressive on radar?

  27. muxpux says:

    gotta love this time of year…downpour moved through while i was getting my haircut, come out and its bright blue sky overhead, dark ominous clouds to the east, building puffy clouds to the west, and 2 miles away at my house, dry pavement.

    a lot like spring…now if we could just get some T&L it would be fun.

  28. Tetra says:

    It is 53F on me weather station after 20 minutes of a heavy downpour that brought 0.16 total. :O

    It is now partly cloudy with CumulusNimbus building to my NW over the neighbors house.

    I am now leaving the blog room to head towards happy valley on my KPTV Special Emergency Storm Chasing bicycle. [url=http://www.smileyhut.com][IMG]http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/bicycle.gif[/IMG][/url]

    I need the exercise.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      KPTV Special Emergency Storm Chasing bicycle.

      Lol That’s great. 🙂 I’d like to see a pic of such a device.

  29. Cherie in Vernonia says:

    Heard there is a tsunami watch for Hawaii after the earthquake in American Samoa. Anyone hear if anything happened?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      8.3 quake. I heard there are reported fatalities now coming in from American Samoa.

    • Tetra says:

      😮 *Almost crashes the KPTV Bicycle* No I haven’t.

    • Latest bulletin I’ve seen…

      TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
      PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
      ISSUED AT 1856Z 29 SEP 2009

      THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
      OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS…EXCEPT ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…
      WASHINGTON…OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

      … A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT …

      A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

      AMERICAN SAMOA / SAMOA / NIUE / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU /
      COOK ISLANDS / TONGA / TUVALU / KIRIBATI / KERMADEC IS / FIJI /
      HOWLAND-BAKER / JARVIS IS. / NEW ZEALAND / FR. POLYNESIA /
      PALMYRA IS. / VANUATU / NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / SOLOMON IS.

      A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

      JOHNSTON IS. / NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
      HAWAII / POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / PITCAIRN / MIDWAY IS. / CHUUK /
      AUSTRALIA

  30. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Recent intensification now over Troutdale and just east of Happy Valley,

  31. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I just checked SPC Thermodynamics.

    SB CAPE: 250J/kg (Little if any CAP)
    MU CAPE: 100J/kg but increasing
    LI: 0 with -1 approaching
    Mid-Level Lapse Rates: 7.5C/km
    Low-Level Lapse Rates: 7C/km

    Upper Air Analysis
    —————————-
    850mb: +2c
    500mb: -26c
    Also some favorable 400-250 mb Potential Vorticity Advection.

    All in all I’d say chances for more vigorous showers and possible isolated t-storms increase after 1:30 PM.

  32. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Oregon AMS “What Will The Winter Be Like” Annual Weather Meeting!

    Will we see another mega-snow winter for Portland this year or will El Nino spoil the fun? The 17th annual event is locked in and ready to go. There were 200 people there last year and we will likely see as many (or more) again this year! Don’t miss it! For complete details, including a driving directions, see link below, or text version here!

    Hope to see you all there!

    Steve Pierce
    Oregon AMS

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    17th Annual Oregon AMS “What Will The Winter Be Like” Weather Meeting

    When: Saturday, October 17th, 2009, 10 am – 12 noon (up to 12:30 pm)
    Where: OMSI Auditorium, 1945 SE Water Ave., Portland, Oregon
    Cost: Free and open to the public

    There will be a self-ordered lunch / social event immediately after the meeting in the OMSI Cafe for those who want to talk with the presenters.

    FEATURED SPEAKERS:

    Opening Remarks: Jim Todd, Oregon Museum of Science and Industry
    Review of Winter 2008-09: Mark Nelsen, KPTV Meteorologist
    Historical Data and Snowfall Potential: Steve Pierce, AMS Councilor

    WINTER 2009/2010 FORECASTS:

    Tyree Wilde, NOAA-National Weather Service WC Meteorologist, Portland
    George Taylor, Applied Climate Services Climatologist, LLC, Corvallis, Oregon
    Pete Parsons, Oregon Department of Agriculture Meteorologist, Salem, Oregon
    Kyle Dittmer, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Hydrologist-Meteorologist

    AMS Website: http://www.ametsoc.o…egon/index.html

  33. Tyler says:

    Raining at a pretty good clip up here. Looks like this is the last major band of rain before things clear out some. Maybe enough sun for some thunder later today.

  34. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    This gives you an idea of where the snow level is up here. Looks like the sticking snow didn’t quite make it down to Stevens Pass, but you can see it 100′ or so up the hill :).

    http://www.stevenspass.com/Stevens/info/mountain-cams.aspx

  35. Tyler says:

    Some snow on the mountain cams this morning. Looks like TImberline got a dusting, as did Mount Rainier and other areas mostly above 5,000.

    Government Camp is in the mid 30s so it was close there.

  36. Tetra says:

    What is SCR anyone?

  37. 52.5F currently….0.03″ rain so far…light SW wind

  38. Hmmmm. . . . got down to 44.3°F around 3:40 this morning (nice!). . . . Currently 50.2°F and cloudy with a light, steady breeze. . . .

    Radar’s showing a nice heavy batch of rain coming over the SCR, heading west. . . Let’s see if the SCR hogs it all. . . .

  39. k5mitch says:

    I refuse to turn on the furnace, well I will try to hold out untill Oct. 1st.

  40. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Good looking cell NE of Yacolt, WA. Peak 56.5 dbz.

    IT HAS BEGUN

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I’d say the first lightning strike (Somewhere in either SW Washington or east of the Coast Range in western Oregon) will be 10 AM-Noon.

  41. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Good morning

    Mark, thanks for the update and get to feeling better.
    ——————————————-
    So time to look at the prospects for t-storms

    Mhm… Yes. Very interesting…. Ah hah!

    Yep. My conclusions are that a rumble of thunderage is possible.

  42. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Even more lightning…

    Mostly cloudy here right now, 43 degrees. Haven’t had a shower yet, but radar shows in the last 3 hours we came close a couple moderate ones.

  43. 29° at the top of Hoodoo this morning.

    45.2° here this morning, just had a short lived heavy shower pass by, 0.10″ of rain so far today. No wind!

  44. muxpux says:

    down to 33 at governement camp! brrrrr

  45. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    FIRST!!!

%d bloggers like this: