Fall REALLY Arrives Next Week


I’ve shown this image in previous posts;  it’s the 6-10 day forecast 500mb heights and deviation from average.  You can see the negative anomaly centered over the northern Rockies.  This is quite a change from what we’ve seen the past few weeks.  Basically the Western USA is going to get a sudden cool down next week.  We can turn off the sprinklers and garden soaker hoses.  That’s a combination of much cooler temps plus off/on rain beginning Monday or Monday night.  You definitely need to enjoy the sunshine this weekend.  Sunday looks perfect with strong offshore flow (gorge east wind).  WRF-GFS cross section shows 35-40 kt. wind well above the surface Sunday PM.

I’ve been a bit lazy blogging the last few nights…under the weather, especially tonight.  Feels like some laryngitis approaching…

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

112 Responses to Fall REALLY Arrives Next Week

  1. Ryann says:

    Finally, good percip in East Vancouver. My skylights are making lots of noise. Night all!

  2. Let’s hope with cold air aloft combining with good CAPE values tomorrow, maybe a few t-storms will flare up…Just give us a few sunbreaks in-between showers…



  3. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Good night everyone, and best wishes for thunderstorms tomorrow! Looks good to me so far.

  4. Tetra says:

    What’s that? It’s 55.0F out. The temp drop doesn’t want to stop. No rhyme intended.

  5. boydo3, N. Albany 500' says:

    Had a nice dinner of fresh caught salmon and chantrelles tonite. Salad of home grown greens and tomatoes. Eola Hills Chardonay to complement it all. I love fall!!!!!
    There was some big time dust blowing off the valley this evening as the winds picked up from the west. My first thought was smoke, but after watching things progress for a while it turned out to bet DIRT! Choke, choke!! Need a bit of precip to settle it. Feels like the real end of summer.

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Fresh lightning strike off the coast…

  7. Tetra says:

    57.5F and cloudy. Don’t think it;’s raining.

  8. A few sprinkles on the way back from Camas a short time ago….


  9. Wow. . . . the wind has really picked up over here now. . . I’m glad I secured the wood pile tarps!

    Looks like we’re gonna have a fun week!!

  10. Tetra says:

    Temp dropping steady. Was 65F right before 4pm and now it’s 61F degrees and getting dark and the wind just picked up. Small branches swaying.

  11. Tetra says:

    Looks like my posts killed the conversation. 😮

  12. Cherie in Vernonia says:

    The rain is here for sure ……

  13. Tetra says:

    So we got the exciting weather so like where are the bloggers? Did they all move from dreary ol Oregon?

  14. Tetra says:

    Cloudy as in it wants to rain kind.

    The fall chill is apperant. 😀

  15. Cool, mostly cloudy (a few short sunbreaks) 62.3F..

    Don’t think I here will even reach 65°………

  16. Ryann says:

    Extremely bad sinus pressure. A tale tale sign the seasons are changing.

  17. PaulB/Eugene says:

    not all that much precip in next 10 days…probably .5 to 1 inch in the valley..

  18. PaulB/Eugene says:

    ECMWF model runs…if they looked like they do now in Dec or Jan = arctic cold/snow. At this time of the year…just crisp….some spots to have first frost I think within next 10 days.

  19. Tetra says:

    I don’t want to sound like a know-it-all 😉 but I told you there would be convection if we were going to get a system from Canada. 😮

    61F on my Oregon Craptific weather station

  20. Tyler says:

    A few sunbreaks now, but the breeze has picked up. I noticed Seattle is gusting to 31 mph…not bad for late September.

  21. Fireplace is cleaned and ready and a new shipment of pellets is here…let Fall begin in earnest!

    61.2 cloudy degrees…….

  22. Just got back in from coverin’ up the wood pile and it’s cloudin’ up fast here. . . . Went from mostly clear to mostly cloudy in about 20 minutes. . . . Currently 58.9°F and slightly breezy. . . .

  23. Cool southerly breeze blowing this am….a few broken clouds but you have to look fast to see ’em….


    Fall is here!

  24. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Very impressive IR loop.
    Unseasonably strong system for late September with large cold pool aloft… My only concern is that the cold pool moves overhead too soon and not during “peak heating” hours Tuesday.

  25. Tyler says:

    The clouds are increasing rapidly. I bet most places are cloudy by 11 AM or noon.


    Small clouds developing to the east against the Cascades and will likely back fill as well as increase from the west.

  26. …interesting morning;, at 190th and farmington at 6 am it was 40 and calm, drove back to barton where the wind is still blowing and 52…..

  27. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    My ride in has gotten much chillier the last week or so. It’s been getting down into the 30’s at KHIO the last couple of nights. Even with the warm day’s it’s been cooling off quickly once the sun starts to go down.

    Sunset is before 7:00pm now and sunrise is after 7:00am.

    Long term (hours 228-240) the 06z GFS has over two inches of rain in a 24 hour period. We could use that.


  28. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    It sure does look like Fall has arrived after yesterday’s winds brought down some of the leaves from the trees. Time to break out the rakes!

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Very crisp cool morning outside… Turning into yet another mostly sunny day, leading to some thunderstorms tomorrow, POSSIBLY.

  30. Finally got a chance to sleep in and woke up around 3:00..sheesh. Chilliest morning do far this fall out there.

  31. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Currently 69.4° with breezy to gusty east winds. The wind itself certainly is not warm by any means. You sure get a real sense of the seasons changing.

    Surface gradients
    As of 11 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -4.5mb |0.2mb Decrease
    TTD-DLS: -5.0mb |0.4mb Decrease

  32. Currently 52.4° and no wind.

  33. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 10 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -4.7mb |0.1mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -5.4mb |0.2mb Increase
    ***Watch Storms LIVE***
    Lansing, Michigan

    North Manchester, Indiana

    They aren’t the most active we’ve ever seen, but have seen a few flashes and bolts.

  34. Warm, dry 70.0° currently…light east wind…very warm for 9pm on a late September evening….

  35. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    It is still a very mild 71.1° here thanks to a persistent gusty east wind.

    Surface gradients
    As of 9 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -4.6mb |0.1mb Decrease
    TTD-DLS: -5.2mb |0.2mb Increase

    Latest cross section model shows east winds peaking now until about 4 AM.

    00z WRF-GFS CAPE model does show some developing inland Tuesday afternoon.

    A very cold pool aloft also moves overhead during Tuesday afternoon with 500mb temps down to -28c

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Looks like a good enviornment for storms, conditions for cold convection actually looks better than it did on the first week of September. I’d say there is a 70% chance they will occur.

  36. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    What if this happened…….

    Nah, not in 1000 years.

  37. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Oregon AMS “What Will The Winter Be Like” Annual Weather Meeting!

    Will we see another mega-snow winter for Portland this year or will El Nino spoil the fun? The 17th annual event is locked in and ready to go. There were 200 people there last year and we will likely see as many (or more) again this year! Don’t miss it! For complete details, including a driving directions, see link below, or text version here!

    Hope to see you all there!

    Steve Pierce
    Oregon AMS

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    17th Annual Oregon AMS “What Will The Winter Be Like” Weather Meeting

    When: Saturday, October 17th, 2009, 10 am – 12 noon (up to 12:30 pm)
    Where: OMSI Auditorium, 1945 SE Water Ave., Portland, Oregon
    Cost: Free and open to the public

    Download this same information in the form of a PDF: http://www.filesavr.com/or-amswinter-wx-meeting2009

    There will be a self-ordered lunch / social event immediately after the meeting in the OMSI Cafe.


    Opening Remarks: Jim Todd, Oregon Museum of Science and Industry
    Review of Winter 2008-09: Mark Nelsen, KPTV Meteorologist
    Historical Data and Snowfall Potential: Steve Pierce, AMS Councilor

    WINTER 2009/2010 FORECASTS:

    Tyree Wilde, NOAA-National Weather Service WC Meteorologist, Portland
    George Taylor, Applied Climate Services Climatologist, LLC, Corvallis, Oregon
    Pete Parsons, Oregon Department of Agriculture Meteorologist, Salem, Oregon
    Kyle Dittmer, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Hydrologist-Meteorologist

    AMS Website: http://www.ametsoc.o…egon/index.html

  38. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    18z GFS shows a 54F and 0.07″ of convective precip for PDX at 5 pm Tuesday.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I notcied GFS has been following this convective precip lately… Hope it follows through

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