The Weekend Is Here!

snapshotAh, for some reason it seemed like a long week and as soon as I finish THIS I get to go home.  But I can’t leave the weather faithful hanging without a few tidbits to chew on for the weekend can I?

Weak front moves through tonight and tomorrow morning; nothing too exciting here.  Then assuming we get some clearing tomorrow and Sunday night we should get pretty chilly.  It’s a cooler airmass both nights, so 38-44 in the coldest spots and 45-48 in the city seems about right.

Then the big offshore flow event kicks in Sunday night.  Several things stick out now:

1.  The usual waffling of models on the details continues, but the 00z GFS is just as hot as 24 hours ago.  As I mentioned last night, it’s probably a bit too warm.  But how about that closed 594dm upper level high over us Monday and Tuesday?  Whew!  That’s almost exactly the same orientation and heights we had in the August 1981 heat wave.  Obviously at the end of September we won’t hit 107.

2.  It’s going to be stronger offshore flow Monday and Tuesday than what we’ve seen so far this season.  The WRF-GFS has about 7 millibars easterly flow from near The Dalles to PDX during the day Monday.  That supports gusts to 50 mph at the west end of the Gorge…lots of blowing/scouring sand so not a good nudie day at Rooster Rock State Park!  Just kidding (partly), but we do have a wide variety of folks who read this blog.

3.  All models have the thermal trough at or well off the Coast.  This says temps will be just about the same at the beaches as inland.  I really like the the 100 degree forecast on the WRF-GFS meteogram for North Bend.  Even Newport shows 85.  Both days temps of 85-90 should be easy to achieve.  Too bad I can’t call in sick Monday…that would be a bit obvious.

4.  I upped Tuesday’s high to 95 based on the extremely high 850mb temps and perfect offshore flow.  I think 97 is possible at PDX if the wind isn’t averaging 20 mph.  I kept Monday at 90 because the heat wave is just getting going.  However Drew and I have discussed how we tend to under-forecast the first day of east-wind type heatwaves.  Wednesday is a total guess.  00z GFS says it stays really hot, but the ECMWF had a total loss of easterly flow, which brings us back into the 80s.

5.  In general, I think this is going to be a historic late-season hot spell…what a way to end the summer!  At least it’ll be in the 40’s and lower 50s at night though.

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

108 Responses to The Weekend Is Here!

  1. Cherie in Vernonia says:

    Facebook friend in Laramie,WY said they got enough snow for her to make a snowman this AM

    Hey, anyone think we need a KPTV Blog “group” on Facebook??

  2. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    74.8F here.
    East winds 15-30mph.
    Peak gust: 37.4mph @ 11:35 AM.

    Surface gradients
    As of 1 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -5.7mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    TTD-DLS: -5.5mb | 0.5mb Decrease
    OTH-GEG: -12.0mb| 1.0mb Decrease

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Lots of mixing occurring here leading to the “cooler” temps. I’m sure by tonight it will have a reverse effect keeping me very warm where as locations west of I-205 will drop off nicely.

  3. 80.1F…RH 24%….East wind gusts to 20mph

  4. Ben Randall (tillamook city) says:

    82 in tillamook

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 12 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -5.8mb | 0.3mb Decrease
    TTD-DLS: -6.0mb | 0.4mb Decrease
    OTH-GEG: -13.0mb| 1.0mb Increase

    Gorge gradient is slowly decrease, but the cross-cascade gradient continues to build leading to increasing downsloping conditions now pushing through the metro area.

  6. Tyler says:

    East winds just kicked in here. Humidity dropped 22% in 5 minutes. Temp 76 and rising rapidly.

  7. Temperature has jumped 10° in the last hour….

    66.3F…east winds to 13mph…

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    So any thoughts on how comfy of an October we may have? Many 70’s with some temps possibly near 80? I don’t know, just a thought.

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 10 AM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -6.3mb | 0.2mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -6.7mb | No Change
    OTH-GEG: -12.0mb| 1.0mb Increase

  10. Already 68.1°F here….with gusty winds (~3 MPH–gusts of 8 MPH, so far….).

  11. Tyler says:

    After their longest consecutive time above freezing, Barrow, AK is not expected to get above freezing for the next week.

  12. Low of 38.4° this morning. Currently 39.6°….Chilly!

  13. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    It is looking like a safe bet that we are going to have an Indian Summer this year.

  14. Tyler says:

    Chilly out there this morning, around 42, coolest of the summer.

    I see Deer Lake in NE Washington got into the 20s, that’s the first 20s I’ve seen at a populated recording station so far.

  15. Tetra says:

    I am actually switching over to the blog room crappy wall board heat for a few hours.

    *Turns the old fashoioned dial on the heater on*

  16. Tetra says:

    Yes I gave it a test run but it makes a slight groan when I turn it on but nothing so far is affected. 😉

    I don’t know why you want the *Blog AC* on when it is 48.6F and clear here. 😮

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 2 AM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -3.5mb | 0.4mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -4.3mb | 0.7mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -8.5mb | 1.3mb Increase

    East wind has now developed in Troutdale and Gresham.

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 1 AM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -3.1mb | 0.2mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -3.6mb | 0.1mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -7.2mb | 0.2mb Increase

    The light north wind here has turned to the NNE now with even a few NE readings.

    Tetra, is the Blog Air Conditioner ready to go? 🙂

  19. Tetra says:

    Headin into the forties by daybreak. 54.0F here.

  20. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 12 AM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -2.9mb | 0.4mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -3.5mb | 0.6mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -7.0mb | 0.9mb Increase

    I’ll be here working on music for a few hours, so expect more exciting gradient updates. 😀

  21. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 11 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -2.5mb | 0.5mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -2.9mb | 0.5mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -6.1mb | 0.4mb Increase

    East wind should develop at Troutdale/Gresham between 12 AM – 2 AM.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I see it’s steadily picking up at the freshly working Corbett School sensor. By the way, I notice it isn’t reporting gusts since it was rebooted late last week. Well after many minutes of searching for an answer, I see the WeatherLink program will only export gusts IF the weather bulletin or other graph has actually been opened! I’ll go in there tomorrow morning to do that, but that’s pretty pathetic software don’t you think?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah Mark I noticed that also as it is showing sustained at 12mph from our favored northerly direction. I would say WeatherLink needs an upgrade definitely. We’ll need those gust readings in just a few short months.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      That’s my new favorite observation. I’d like to go hiking there sometime….

    • Yah, it’s a great site for seeing east wind developement…

      I’ve heard that it is a great area for hiking…

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I wonder if its very exposed as Hamilton Mtn is. There’s a section of that trail where you’re walking on the side and it’s rather stunning you feel like you’re well on the side of a mountain lol. The wind blasts you there.

  22. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 10 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -2.0mb | 1.0mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -2.4mb | 0.9mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -5.7mb | 0.7mb Increase

  23. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 9 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -1.0mb | 0.5mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -1.5mb | 0.4mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -5.0mb | 0.5mb Increase

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