Whew…got really busy tonight answering emails, setting up school visits etc… Before I knew it showtime was here. So, luckily not much to talk about.
Hot weather is most definitely on the way. Nothing significant has changed in the last 24 hours. I’ve really tried to avoid “model-riding” the last 2-3 days. That messed me up a bit just before the big heat wave. Strong offshore flow begins Sunday night and continues through at least Tuesday, longer on some model runs. 00z GFS is “crazy hot”; similar to yesterday’s ECMWF. It shows 850mb temps of 22-25 Monday through Thursday afternoons along with a 584dm 500-1000mb thickness at the peak. It doesn’t get much hotter than that even in the summer months. The 12z ECMWF seemed more reasonable today with a hot atmosphere Monday and Tuesday, then the ridge pushes east. Both models still point to Tuesday as the hottest day. I still think 95 is possible. Also, the easterly flow goes well past the coastline, so the beaches may hit 90 in this pattern too.
Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen