Busy Night

Not much time tonight, I spent some time setting up school visits for the year and then updating our PC to a newer Internet Explorer 8…much better for tweeting now.

Whew, looks pretty hot Friday and Saturday now.  WRF-GFS and NAM show 850mb temps of 22-24 degrees (C) both afternoons.  That’s about the warmest you can get in September.  Assuming the east wind surfaces nicely in the metro area, we should have no problem hitting 90.  My September “magic” chart says as high as 96-97 degrees!  So the 92 I have in the forecast for now sure seems safe.  Friday is the day to head to the beaches too.  90 is possible from Tillamook to Astoria assuming the offshore flow actually makes it to the beaches.  One more thing…whoever has the breeze all night Friday night should see temps stay near or above 70 degrees.  Troutdale, Corbett, maybe Mt. Scott???

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

56 Responses to Busy Night

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 10 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -2.3mb | 0.6mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -2.7mb | 0.5mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -5.2mb | 0.1mb Decrease

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Well I’m heading to bed ya all. Have fun tracking those storms in ND/SD…

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Severe thunderstorms moving through Bismark, ND!!!

    Hope Rob Martin is having fun

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 9 PM-Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -1.7mb | 0.3mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -2.2mb | 0.3mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -5.3mb | 0.2mb Increase

  5. Tetra says:

    Does anyone know what orgin this airmass is coming from? Is it a Desert Soutwest High or a Four Corners high?

    In respons to Rob about east winds:

    Tis weird how Easterly winds don’t cause as much power outages and transformer explosions.

    It must be the way power lines face and the angle of the trees. That’s the best assumption I can make anywho.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      As you head into extreme east/southeast Portland, into Gresham, and especially throughout east Gresham and Troutdale you’ll see that most trees have little if any eastward facing branches and I think that causes the brunt of the gusts to kind of hit the center of the tree rather than trash around a bunch of limbs thus breaking and causing outages. Also as you’re aware of any previous substantial rainfall before a 40-50mph wind event can help uproot trees causing outages.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Thrash around*

  6. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Slight breeze out there and it’s an extremely warm one.

    8 PM Observations show offshore downslope flow developing along the Foothills of the south Washington Cascades and northern Oregon Cascades, also along the Foothills of the Gorge.

    Surface gradients
    As of 8 PM|Current | Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -1.4mb | 0.9mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -1.9mb | 0.8mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -5.1mb | No Change

  7. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Visibility was great today! Got up to 81 at my house today. Went for a bike ride right before sundown and it was so gorgeous. I’m moving in a week, I will definitely miss it around her.

  8. Tyler says:

    Yay…just switched to offshore flow. I could swear we did earlier based on the fact that it was clear looking up at the hills. Visibility is awesome.

  9. Maybe this is the year where a 960mb low follows one of these paths…..

    Hopefully, not the October 12th one though…

    74.5F

  10. Tetra says:

    I forgot your freeze records start later up in Portland. 😦

    Our lowest records start around the 20th and onwards where its shy of the 32F mark and on the 25th shows a butt cold 26F in 1934.

    Must’ve been ONE helluva artic blast to get those readings.

  11. Tetra says:

    Hey Rob when your’e windstorms start happening can you chime in when you see transformers blow and/or when your power goes out so I’ll be able to know?

    That will be fun to read during East winds or South winds episodes.

    80.2F degrees outside and sunny.

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      ‘cept if his power is out…no computer. I only remember seeing transformers blow one time. I lived in Portland in Dec of ’79 during a horrible ice storm. Lived on about 52nd & Glisan in an older rental. Blue flashes & sirens all night long.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Sure I can try Tetra as it is much harder to lose power with an east wind event/storm than it is with a more powerful southerly wind event/storm.

  12. Tetra says:

    We are SO overdue for a major late summer/early fall artic blast shattering all time records.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I don’t know Tetra, a big east wind event or a low pressure area with tropical storm force winds seems a lot more likely than a late Summer freeze…

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      That’s when December or January comes in. I have seen a couple in early to middle November, but only occasionally.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    East winds will be very nice…. I’m looking forward to the 1 1/2 – 2 day offshore flow regime about to set in. It just gets me ready for the big wind season where gusts 50mph repeatedly slam the front of the house…. And if I’m lucky and a bigger event unfolds I can hear it roaring about 1/4 – 1/8 mile away. Really enjoyable.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      IF the offshore flow persists Friday night I may not get below 70F or perhaps right near 70F.

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Surface gradients
    As of 5 PM
    PDX-DLS: +0.4mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    TTD-DLS: -0.2mb | No Change
    OTH-GEG: -3.9mb | 0.9mb Increase

  15. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    18Z is a mild improvement… Still toasty overall.

    Why do I have a nagging feeling that we are headed towards an Indian Summer?

  16. Tetra says:

    What’s bad about the 12Z GFS chart?

    Nobody seems to be saying anything on it. 😦

  17. 73.1F under blue skies…..

    Light “NNE” wind….

  18. Mike (Sweet Hom) says:

    In Depoe Bay the last couple days. Perfect weather with litte or no wind. Sunny skies this morning by 9:00 am. Amazing how fast fog bank moved off shore. Lots of whales. Heading home today and sounds like back to the heat.

  19. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Good morning, well for another 10 minutes.

    I see the pressure pattern is slowly turning offshore, but not quite yet in the Gorge itself. The overall pattern and cross-cascade gradient reflects the coming change.

    Surface gradients
    As of 11 AM
    PDX-DLS: +0.2mb | No Change
    TTD-DLS: -0.1mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    OTH-GEG: -2.5mb | 0.8mb Increase

  20. Tetra says:

    66.0F outside.

  21. Tetra says:

    How about 90F and snow?

  22. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Ewww…. I hope the 12Z GFS run is an anomaly!

  23. Still socked in this am…Sat shows it just about ready to break up……

    Offshore breeze only a few hours away??

    59.6F

  24. I seem to remember a September night several years ago that was extremely warm. It was 86 during the day and very muggy, then thick cloud cover rolled in around sunset. The next morning I remember having recorded about 76 for a low temperature.

    Does anyone else remember that?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Nothing like that has ever happened here in September, in recorded history.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Are you talking about Portland?
      No way, as Jesse said, never happened, I could see portion of east counties staying near 70-72 with a good east wind but that’s about it…not 76.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      He lived out in S.E. Gresham I believe. It’s possible out that way for sure. I may be near or above 70F as well.

  25. Tetra says:

    It is 60F for the low and am not looking forwards to 90+ weather. 😦 😛

    Whenever I hover my mouse over a picture link it tries to show a preview but the preview takes longer then the actual picture to run.

  26. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Well that forecast is depressing to wake up to… Also depressing to see the GFS spitting out 20+ 250mb temps around the 20th for a couple days.

    I’m soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ready for fall! Gimme highs in the 50’s and lows in the 30’s.

  27. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    It looks like we may be close to breaking records on Friday and Saturday, not to mention the all time record for # of 90 degree temps at PDX.

  28. Karl Bonner says:

    Lows in the 70s in September? I’m sorry but that just doesn’t seem very realistic. I can understand breezy spots staying above 60, but 70?!?

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

      It’s happened before. I know it’s happened in the last 10 years on the Eastside but I can’t remember the date. Rob (Wrath) might remember the exact date.

      I know there was a day where the east winds were blowing out in Camas and my parents barely got under 70 and in Hillsboro it was dead still and we were near 50 degrees, and there have been other instances.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It has happened before…in fact I think it’s probably once per Fall. But only in the few spots that stay breezy at night (not PDX). Plus, if it doesn’t continue for two nights, the calming the 2nd evening allows the temp to drop well into the 60s by midnight, so it doesn’t show up on the final climate report for the day as a 70 degree night.

  29. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Yep…. East winds! 🙂

    Thanks, Mark.

  30. muxpux says:

    this was taken from just east of Kelso…

    and heres the story…

    http://tdn.com/articles/2009/09/10/top_story/doc4aa6f40bbbb80893400412.txt

    saw some sprinkles today. just enough to feel, but could hardly see them, and didnt make any wet spots on anything. late summer “flurry”.

  31. Provided it is short lived and breaks records…I suppose I can tolerate it. Beyond that, give me crisp fall afternoons and tule fog in the morning! My forecast “request”.

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