Big Trouble in Little Cabo

August 30, 2009
I wouldn't want to be on a Baja California vacation Wednesday!

I wouldn't want to be on a Baja California vacation Wednesday!

You definitely want to click on the image to get a better view here;  it’s the 48 hour forecast from the HWRF (Hurricane weather research forecast) model.  Note the 915 mb sea level pressure in the eye of Hurricane Jimena, plus the 145+kts of wind wrapping around the storm as it runs directly into the southern tip of Baja California.  I have never been down there, but I always hear about the resort-studded area on the southern tip of the peninsula.  Apparently it’s quite nice…maybe not after Wednesday.  Just remember that like all other big weather events we discuss on these pages, this is just one model.  But I notice the GFDL is similar.  Other models swing it farther offshore.  Right now it is a Category 4 storm.

I found this almost as interesting: global_running_ace it’s a global & northern hemisphere plot of the last 30 years “tropical cyclone energy”.  It shows that we are at a 30 year low in that energy…basically it’s been unusually quiet the last few years in the tropics.  That would be when averaged over the entire globe.  Last year it was above normal in the Atlantic but quieter elsewhere.  There is some fascinating reading at the link I’ve highlighted, and of course the chart is easier to read when you click on it.

Back here in the Pacific Northwest;  it’s a working weekend for me since Stephanie Kralevich did the Hood to Coast Race.  We have a week of changes here in the weather center.  Today was Stephanie Ortmann’s last day, we wish her good luck in the future of course.  Brian MacMillan begins tomorrow afternoon, and Rob Martin’s last day is on Thursday.  Hopefully it hasn’t been my boring-weather-fueled fits of incessant rage and anger that drive people out of here???  Unlikely.

Very nice weather the next few days before a big change to cool and showery right around Thursday.

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen