Lots of Juice

junkHoly cow…I wake up to sunshine this morning, which isn’t unexpected, but it looks like the tropics have moved in next door.  Those of you that regularly check out the Portland radar know that it’s rare to see such heavy rainfall in a solid  band so far away from the radar site.  Too bad it’s not about 50 miles east or we’d be getting heavy rain this morning along with some embedded thunderstorms.  Yesterday evening’s models, along with the 12z NAM say it’s going to fall apart by the time the upper level trough swings through this afternoon.  Hard to believe,but we’ll see.

4:30pm Update:  And…now we have seen.  Is this pathetic or what? Looks like a few hundreths at best with the quickly dying band of rain heading through the Metro area.  Models did pretty well apparently.

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

134 Responses to Lots of Juice

  1. Low clouds burned off around noon. Sunny and 69°.

  2. Tetra says:

    *Sighs* Question goes unanswered.

    I actually liked that thread for the entertainment value. Sorta like our Mark Nelson’s *Vacation curse*

    Heck we should have our own Mark Nelson analog! 😮

    Hey Timmy did you read that thread and if so what do you think of having a Nelson Analog?

  3. Tetra says:

    On that thread one guy said he went to Hawaii several times and every time he went there the years before were always our *best* winters and the years afterwards when he came home were always crapped out. 😛

    Hope that isn’t the case this year since we have a solar minimum creeping on us and he just went to Hawaii this year.

  4. Jory says:

    Interesting article about the effect the solar cycle appears to have on Earth…
    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-08/ncfa-sus082509.php

    They primarily discuss the effect of the solar maxima, not minimum, but it’s still interesting.

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I was thinking earlier today about Weather extremes, and I thought it would be enjoyable to discuss which one is the most difficult to achieve.

    1) Damaging south wind storm.
    *Winds sustained 40-60mph and gusts 80mph+. Over 300,000+ power outages.

    2) Strong Arctic blast
    *Arctic Front blasts S-SW from British Columbia. Five or more consecutive days with daytime high temps of 25F or colder and low temps below 5F.

    3) Severe Thunderstorm outbreak
    *At least a dozen hail or wind reports.

    Each one of these needs certain dynamics, upper air patterns, surface conditions, and other factors to all line up properly at the same time which makes them all rather difficult to accomplish in the Pacific Northwest. Which one of the 3 do you feel is the hardest to obtain and why?

    • Farmer Steve says:

      I think in this order of hardest to get 1. Thunder storms 2. Arctic blast 3.South wind, and my only reasoning is in all my years of keeping an eye weather that always seems the way it usually pans out

    • 1. Severe t-storm outbreak is probably the most difficult to achieve……Atmospheric dynamics and our proximity to the Pacific Ocean make this hard to get…

      2. South windstorm…….Getting gusts in the valley of 80+ is very rare….Even in the “big” storms of ’81 and ’95, many valley locations failed to hit 70 or even 60mph…Only the Columbus Day Storm really produced “widespread” gusts of over 80 in the Portland area…(A few select locations-such as the Morrison Street Bridge-have had peak gusts over 80 a few times in the past)…The Columbus Day Storm tracked closest to the coast and that seems to be the biggest reason it had such an impact here..(after adding in all atmospheric processes)…..

      3. Strong artic blast from the north….Between the three, to me this would be the most likely one to happen….(Hey, maybe with “global cooling” this will occur sooner than not…lol)

  6. Tetra says:

    Did anyone read the funny thread of *Hawaii Vacation Analogs*? It was a hoot!

  7. Tyler says:

    We’ve had several of the last October’s end with a rather cool episode…will this be repeated this year? HMMM

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      As well as Columbus Day Storm type low pressure areas just offshore… Wonder if that will continue…

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Three of the last 7 Halloweens have seen really cold nights, just about as cold as it can get that time of year. In 2003 the south Valley got a few spots of sticking snow on Nov. 2!

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Hmmmm I’ll take a stab at this….

    My thoughts are as followed.

    If the sun remains this inactive a bitterly cold winter may hit the northern tier of the U.S. and of course the Canadian prairies. I think the El Nino will be very weak to near neutral ENSO conditions. I think the real eye opener is going to be the strong deep low pressure areas across the North pacific and Gulf of Alaska. I am basing this off of the activity that was seen throughout August with several deep lows 975-985mb and suggesting it as a precursor for things to come. Of course the wild card is how active are the tropics and how much energy/moisture is entrained into the westerlies thus enhancing the chances of Cyclogenesis with any developing low pressure area. The westerlies could be more consolidated as well as less split flow conditions lasting until mid December. December 20th to January 27th multiples chances of Arctic air, then split flow at times early to mid February.

    We say this every year, but we are overdue for a damaging south wind storm in the Willamette Valley. Will this be the year? or will we continue to dodge the bullet…. Stay tuned.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      There’s no guarantee what El Nino will bring. The 97-98 episode was quite dry but there was a huge snow event in January, one of the worst I remember as a kid growing up in The Dalles.

      And the 06-07 episode didn’t last very long and ended with a bunch of cold and almost snowy weather in late February.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      🙂 There are hardly ever any guarantees in Weather, and that’s what makes all of this so interesting. No matter how much technology advances or computer models improve there are just so many variables that come into play that essentially make everything a crap-shoot. For me that’s one thing I enjoy the most about Meteorology as well as discussing it with the likes of yourself and others.

  9. Tetra says:

    I mean its a real professional *not* way to forecast! 😮 They could become famous and get laughed out the door! 😮

  10. Tetra says:

    Well if you folks are really that bored then head over to this thread called *Hawaii Vacation Analogs*

    http://www.westernusawx.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=27012

    It’s quite funny. LOL. Guess that’s what starts happening when the weater is boring far too long.

  11. Cap - Hood River says:

    I saw a funnel cloud today up near Goldendale. I’ll try to link a picture.

  12. Karl Bonner says:

    Posts are slow on this blog lately, so let’s liven it up by talking about the extended forecast, especially as it relates to our position in the seasonal cycle!

    A definite whiff of fall weather this past week, but it’s my impression that late Aug/early Sep. are to autumn what February is to spring: average temps are starting to drop a little bit, and there’s usually a hint of the changing seasons, but it doesn’t last very long before reverting to conventional summer weather. So I’m predicting that the first couple weeks of September will still be more or less summery. Then some real fall rains followed by our Indian summer at the tail end of Sep. going into Oct.

    What are you predicting?

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

      Karl,

      I think we will see some big swings from warm to cooler weather in the month of September. I’d hazard a guess that Sept will have below average rainfall (still) and about average temps when all is said and done. I think the wet season will really set in by the second half of October, but I haven’t finalized my thoughts on this fall and winter’s weather yet, other than as I have mentioned before that I don’t think this will be a typical el-nino year for the NW.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Well, since the models are showing a large, cool trough over us for Labor Day weekend, I’m going to have to disagree with that Summery first two weeks of the month prediction, although the last half of the second week could be brighter.

      After that, I think we will see a brief ridge mid-month, which will retrograde offshore slightly, allowing clear weather to continue for the most part, but with below average temps-highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s (30s outlying areas) The month will be capped off by a large rainstorm, leading into a cold, rainy October.

    • Great points folks…. I’m also wondering how much of an impact the extended lack of solar activity will have this winter…. So many variables….

  13. Tetra says:

    No comments? I must be blind. 😉

    “Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house *Blog*
    Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.
    The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,”

    Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm oops wrong season! 😮
    [url=http://www.smileyhut.com][IMG]http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/axe.gif[/IMG][/url]

    Psssssssssssst Timmy. My high today was 78F don’t tell anyone. 😉 Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. *lets sneak on out of here*

  14. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Uhh, no comments huh?

  15. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Whoa looks like we missed out on something in NE Oregon a little bit ago…

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL WALLOWA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OREGON…

    * UNTIL 645 PM PDT

    * AT 551 PM PDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ENTERPRISE AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

    There was a report of 1.25″ (half dollar) sized hail ENE of Enterprise.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Radar image of storm… Doesn’t look like much… Darn mountains screwing up the reflectivity…

  16. Tetra says:

    Maybe we will get that this winter. :O

    I am mostly expecting an early sharp freeze this year due to so many months above average Timmy. How bout you?

    Maybe we will shatter some old fashioned October Record Lows. 🙂 Heck maybe I will surprise myself and we will have a hard freeze in mid-late September for the mid-valley crushing records like a tooth pick.

  17. Mostly sunny and 79.1°

  18. Tetra says:

    Forgot to mention it’s climbed to 77.4F much higher then yesterdays 72F high. Oh I see the sun trying to come back out now jut as I typed.

  19. Tetra says:

    Cloudy here but no rain. Yesterday I got zero point nothing on my thirsty gauge.

    Who’s ready for a dry and cold or dry and warm winter?

    Which do you prefer?

  20. Tetra says:

    A half hour agon it was blue skies galore and now it’s overcast like it’s going to rain.

    You know liquid falling from the sky?

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      It just rained again over my place. very tiny showers almost not even noticable on radar. They said showers in the morning, but we didn’t get any until now.

    • vernonia1 says:

      Been raining pretty good on & off here all day Tetra…(see previous posts) :0)

  21. Megan (Newberg) says:

    Really heavy shower just hit here. Good thing the husband just finished washing the car…..

  22. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I just had a heavy shower move on through about 15 minutes ago, was anyone on the radar?

  23. Cloudy 69.3F currently…..

    Not the best weather for the airshow but definitely better than it was a few years ago when it was cold and wet for the Blue Angels…Tomorrow might not be too bad…

  24. Now partly sunny and 71.5°

  25. vernonia1 says:

    Wish we had a rain gauge here at work. Bet it would be doing pretty well. Rain on & off all day. brrrrr

    Cherie

  26. Tyler says:

    I like sharing this link while we still have daylight to show things.

    Things to look for:

    1. Forest fires continue in BC…unfortunately the low will not provide much rain for them. Notice both the origin as well as all of the smoke over Alberta.

    2. The low continues to spin over Washington.

    3. The white patch over south central New Mexico…White Sands National Monument…it shows up rather well!

    4. Cool northerly flow moving into the Plains.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

    Tyler
    (Vancouver)

  27. Low clouds starting to burn off, 65°.

  28. Tyler says:

    12z GFS shows rain as early as early Thursday morning, but also shows it dry most of Saturday and Sunday before a little more rain. Either way, it’s not nearly as wet as the last few models.

    The EURO shows zonal flow more than anything.

  29. 63.9F here under mostly cloudy skies although in the past hour they are letting some filtered sun thru….Appears the ULL is exiting the area and we should be warming back up into the upper 70’s/lower 80’s the next few days..Still looking like fall returns late next week…

  30. muxpux says:

    pretty dry here this am. couple drops of water on the car and leaves on the rhodys. nothing too bad.

    keeping an eye on that slug of moisture dropping down I-5 from olympia. could get us wet.

    currently at 63.5 in Longview

  31. Tyler says:

    Here comes the drizzle…nothing is wet…yet.

  32. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Had a comfy low temperature of 59F. currently 61.2F with dew point of 57F and humidity of 87%. Perfect waking up weather.

  33. Patchy low clouds and sun, 52.8° this morning.

  34. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Well there is lots of fog outside, this is the most significant fog I have seen since last winter. We had the perfect setup though for fog to form, after yesterdays heavy rain that I got then clear skies in the evening/overnight there is plenty of moisture in the air then temps cooling off overnight. I like it….. it makes it feel like fall outside. 52.7F

  35. Tetra says:

    It’s 59F outside and clear as a bell.

    Amazing but not surpising we are under a *severe* drought in spots according to that map.

    This is more of a creeping drought then a sudden drought where this drought comes more slowly over time then a few big epic drought months like in 05.

  36. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    So much for the forecast of a stronger monsoon season into Oregon…. Doesn’t look to be panning out.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      My “sixth sense” on crazy thunderstorms for 2009 started really well with the May 2nd and June 4th storms, but right after that, it was a bust all of a sudden.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      In all honesty I’m not 100% shocked given our climate, etc. But we’ve seen t-storms in September before… Given how crazy last Winter was, and this Summer’s heat wave.. I rule nothing out. Well okay toddler sized hail I rule out, but beyond that nope! 🙂

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      You and I seem to have some very rotten luck on hail, I think even in Clackamas County on June 4, there was hail around .50″. And many people over at Linn County said they saw hail ranging from 1.00″ to 1.75″.

      The largest sized hail I have seen from any thunderstorm was probably no bigger than a penny. And I don’t remember when I had that. might have been May 1993 or something, Tualatin had golfball sized hail, there was a report of a shattered car windshield, not something you always hear about.

  37. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    .02″ here today, so not a complete failure.

    I’m going to go out on a fairly short limb and say that PDX goes short of average rainfall for August. Making us short of average for the 17th month out of the last 20. May 09 and Aug 08 being the only above average months since Dec ’07 for PDX or HIO. Rechecking records, I saw that March ’08 was excactly average (PDX).

    No science behind this, but I don’t think this el-nino is not going to behave like a normal one, given the negative PDO and quiet sun. I think we will get above average rains this winter, though not as much snowfall as we have seen the last couple of years.

  38. Tetra says:

    D-r-o-u-g-h-t.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      According to the Palmer Drought Severity map of August 22nd, the Willamette Valley is covered in a severe drought somewhat.

      Kinda interesting… 🙂

  39. Tyler says:

    I was hoping for more of a soaking to help keep fire danger lower…looks like that will happen over the entire holiday weekend 🙂

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