Fading Daylight & El Nino Update

snapshot[5]I took a nice bike ride between the 5pm and 10pm shows tonight.  Up into the West Hills via Germantown Rd. and Cornell.  Real nice & smooth road;  quit a change after bumping along on dusty trails while on vacation.  I sure noticed the change in evening light within the last two weeks.  By 7:45pm it was starting to get a bit dim already.  I see we’re moving back into the 7 o’clock hour sunsets again too.  Seems like the seasons moves faster and faster as we get older.  Remember when you were a kid and couldn’t conceive of the time required to pass from one Christmas to the next? junk Speaking of Christmas…I see El Nino conditions are still looking likely for this upcoming winter.  You can click on the image for a much better view.  The Climate Prediction Center models all seem to peak out the intensity in the November-January timeframe.  Quite a range on intensity though.  Just a few go for weak to neutral conditions;  at the other extreme some have a very strong event developing.  None flip it to a La Nina.  The consensus is for at least a moderate El Nino for this upcoming winter.  The models (and CPC) did pretty well with La Nina, so we’ll see what happens this time.

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to Fading Daylight & El Nino Update

  1. No lightning here……so this’ll have to do for now……

    Courtesy of Raging Planet: http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/raging-planet-upward-lighting.html

  2. High 89.5°
    Low 46.8°

    Currently 73.5°

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Daylight is burning… Do miss those late sunsets already…

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’m doing my fall/winter dance. Can’t wait for October to roll in and we start getting those crisp mornings.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Sorry to say this, but I’m root’n for a good ‘ol El Nino this Winter. The warmer water temperatures should fuel up some very good rainstorms and potentially good windstorms, since afterall many of our months has seen below normal precip totals this year. And on the brighter side, with warmer waters under any cold front, it should increase our chances of cold cored convection. We haven’t seen nearly enough t-storm activity this year either, we had one giant t-storm day on June 4th, which probably sucked this atmosphere dry. Thats when Winter jumps in.

  5. Our weather is pretty boring here…. But OK City is getting pounded and Tulsa appears to be next….

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=oklahoma+city%2C+ok&searchType=WEATHER

  6. Tetra says:

    It is 79.9F after a high of around 90F. Roths temperature showed it 90F and it was hot when we went to Salem which is all I know. I got my mouth all dried out. 😦 😛

    Looks like it’s the Tetra blog again? 😦

  7. Tetra says:

    Forgot to mention it was early December when we left.

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    ?

  9. Tetra says:

    Maybe it was in Jan-Feb 97.

    I started school in mid-January cause for a month right after we left Quincy had MAJOR flooding that cut the town off and the schools here couldn’t contact the schools there to transfer my records.

    I couldn’t enroll until mid to late January sometime so it might have been February 97.

    BTW: That flooding The Weather Channel got it right and we knew before most of Quincy did that some SERIOUS storms were a comin.

    The local *radio* guy just had a therometer out his window and would stick his head out saying………”well it’s 28F outside with thick clouds so it might snow today and will someone please close that door!”

    Quincy was that backwards though it has a very nice downtown with all the stores you need.

  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Test? …. Or is it now for some reason saying that I still need moderator approval.

  11. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    ***Watch Storms LIVE!***

    Atlanta, Georgia
    http://webcam.gsu.edu/view/index.shtml
    Fantastic lightning!

    Enjoy 🙂

  12. Tetra says:

    I think it might have been that winter that Robert Frost School had a snow day.

    I remember waking up and mom surprising me that the school was closed and I got to stay home and I was like “What the hell?”

  13. Tetra says:

    Does anyone know how much snow Salem got during the year 1997-98 which is my first winter?

    I remember one year Robert Frost had a *snow day* which was new to me as being in the mountains schools are open until they are buried and you can’t get in the door.

    • chris s says:

      I dont recall getting really any snow in the 97-98 winter in Salem, and I have lived in Salem my whole life, since 1974. I recall that we did get snow in december of 98 however, with a little artic outbreak, but again at least to my rememberance, no snow in 97-98 winter.

  14. seven fifty nine
    sad end of summer numbers
    ripe beefsteaks console

  15. Well, it’s warming up nicely (currently 51°F) after a chilly low of 44.8°F….. Definitely a taste of Fall in the air…. Can’t wait ’til the leaves start turning colors………

  16. Jesse-Orchards says:

    45 out there this morning, currently.

    Just broke down and briefly turned the heat on in my room, for the first time since May or so.

  17. Tetra says:

    Can California PLEASSSSSSSSSE have a decent rainy winter? Anybody?

    I am so sick of seeing my native home state stuck in a drought. 😛 It was in a drought throught the early to mid 90s while we were living there and most of my childhood.

    59F here after a high of 75F which is -6 from KSLE. *Salem Airport*

    • lurkyloo says:

      I was raised in CA in the 70’s. The drought was so bad that we couldn’t wash our cars (not a big deal) or water our lawns. My grandparents dug a well in their backyard and while we were getting rid of the sandy water on our lawn (in order to use to well water for flushing) we’d get people driving down our street calling us all sorts of names because they thought we were wasting water! My grandma might let us have a “GI” shower, which meant two minutes or less. Our “bath” was 2 inches at most and my 2 sisters and I had to share it. Bottom line to this novel is that I love the rain, and I will never take water for granted. My favorite time of the year is when it is the coldest and the icy “winter water” from Bull Run flows out of my faucet. My kids love it!

  18. Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

    Most strong El Ninos are actually very wet and warm. Although the 1972-73 strong El Nino gave us one of our greatest coldwaves on record, and the 1997-98 mega Nino gave us a terrific snowstorm.

    • Tetra says:

      Terrific where you lived that is.

      Here in Silverton that was my first *real* winter here and I think we had a slight dusting and it wasn’t enough to pull out my old sled from Quincy to go down Church street. 😦

      I remember one time which I think was that year Robert Frost canceled school and that was new to me cause in Quincy California school is NEVER closed no matter how much snow………………..though most of the snow when we were there happened at night and them plows were ‘up n at em’

      I guess it’s cause your farther north then I am. Isn’t Brush Prairie heading up towards Mt St Helens and Cougar Lake?

    • Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

      It’s just about 5 miles northeast of Vancouver, about 50 miles to your north.

  19. Hopefully, any El-Nino that developes is weak. Strong El-Nino events tend to give us warmer and drier winters. I also think most of our windstorms here tend to occur in “neutral” years…So for me, a neutral ENSO would be my choice….

    60° currently…..Definitely feels like fall is soon going to be upon us…

  20. Karl Bonner says:

    Why is it that El Nino seems to always peak during inversion season while La Nina peaks during the spring? Dry spells in Nov-Jan are counterproductive for valley warmth while the northern storm track in spring is very effective at chilling our bones. For once I’d like to see an unseasonably warm Feb-Apr period actually predicted beforehand.

  21. Mback says:

    Hopefully we trend towards a weak El-Nino or a neutral phase as we all know that El-Nino can make for an awful winter if you like cold and snow. It will be interesting to see how a dead sun and a negative PDO will come into play this winter.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Rian, GREAT points, if the solar cycle stays as is, our winters could be a whole new experience for us all, especially when you start looking at analogs, I don’t believe there are any analog models that take into account a dead sun. If I’m wrong, does anyone know where to find them? Also, the continuously negative PDO (the negative PDO phase) should throw in a wild card for El Ninos. Last, I still have a feeling this El Nino will not be that strong and at most be moderate, but more likely weak, and hopefully just at the neutral limits, haha.

      This is new territory for all forecasters in my opinion for the simple little fact that the sun is inactive right now. I look forward to how this fall and winter turn out, I’m chomping at the bit!!!

  22. marybeth7362 says:

    Gotta love that slow refresh! Oh well. I too, am sorry to see the daylight hours getting shorter. I was thinking today I was starting to feel a little hint of of autumn in the air.

  23. Marybeth7362 says:

    First?

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