A Brief Post

A long bike ride between shows plus some serious surgery on a bunch of graphics for tomorrow’s cooler temps means not much time tonight.  Marine air really pouring in tonight, so we lowered tomorrow’s high to 80 here in PDX-Land.  I also notice a cooler trend for Friday and Saturday, and a little Sunday.

Heat Wave Update:  Not much change.  The hottest period is when a thermal trough gets established west of the Cascades Monday-Wednesday.  850mb temps of 20-27 all next week plus the offshore flow mean 100+ temps are more likely now.  I do notice the ECMWF has slightly lower 850mb temps and the thermal trough is not as pronounced.  Sure looks like 95+ temps Sunday through Thursday at least of next week…most likely this is going to be the warmest period this summer.

Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen

83 Responses to A Brief Post

  1. AdamInAumsville says:

    Well, anyone going to have their camera ready just in case the noctilucent clouds show up tonight?

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    KPTV forecast calls for “Major Heat Wave” on the graphic:

  3. Matthew says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_heat_wave_2009

    I started a Wiki for this heat wave. Hopefully it remains up.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Mesoscale analysis box covering NW:

    http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=1

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Severe thunderstorms in Washington, suppose thats the reason.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah….. Some fun for them. I don’t have any good streaming weather cams from that area, but I’ll keep looking.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I really hope for thunderstorms, but it better not be just nocturnally, because I want some more severe weather events!

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    *Special Weather Statement*

    …VERY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OVER
    SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON…

    AFTER TWO DAYS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES…THINGS WILL BEGIN HEATING UP OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK…WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS LIKELY TO BE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THESE THREE DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST OF THE SUMMER SO FAR.

    THE CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FRIDAY…WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY…AND CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

    AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK…THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FASTIF ANY COOLING MIGHT TAKE PLACE. REGARDLESS…IT WILL LIKELY STILLBE VERY WARM AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY AUGUST.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      LOL I got my Weatherscan on 24/7 so I always spot these on the minute.

  6. Jesse-Orchards says:

    18Z continues the cooling trend.

    At face value it only shows one day above 100 at PDX.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      If verified, sure…. I am personally discounting the few cooler operational runs. I also as of this moment am not sure we see much marine push tonight. I’ll have to take a closer look here in another hour or 2.

    • Matthew says:

      Ull moving into the Casecade mountains. Appears to be moving very slowly to the east. Hopefully it starts moving faster.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah it’s crawling along. I think by Saturday afternoon/night it won’t be an issue… I just have a feeling it’s going to move out sooner than Sunday night/Monday.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Discount a trend of more reasonable looking operational runs as we get closer to a potentially extreme event.

      Yeah, probably a good idea.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Jesse, 2 GFS model runs is a trend to you? Did you see the 06z? it was BLISTERING hot! So because the 12 and oh so reliable 18z showed a cooling trend you want to call for one day over 100? If you run the euro every run got hotter over the last two days up until the 12z today which remains pretty much the same as the 00z. I’m trying to figure out your trend here.

      If the 00z showed something similar to the 18z then that would be 3 runs in a row then I might start saying “trend”…none the less even if it does look the same, the 18z was still hot as heck but maybe not the 5 day 100 degree heat.

      I don’t understand your animosity towards Rob, is there something personal that happened? You do seem to nit pick him quite a bit.

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Here is Mark’s latest forecast info on the KPTV page.

    KPTV Forecast
    Heat Wave On The Way

    A push of cooler ocean air overnight brought widespread cloud cover this morning. Skies are finally clearing now and we should see comfortable high temps around 75-80 by dinnertime. The low clouds don’t stick around as long tomorrow, so afternoon temps jump into the 80s.

    A major warming trend begins Saturday with sunny skies and a high near 90 degrees. After that we will be roasting like chestnuts at Christmas. A hot ridge of high pressure sits directly over the Pacific Northwest from Sunday through late next week. We expect a prolonged period (5-7 days) with high temps in the upper 90s to low-mid 100s! Portland’s all-time high is 107 degrees, last set in 1981. We’ll be close to that Monday and Tuesday. The coastline and mountains will be the only places to see highs below 95 degrees.

    • K5mitch NE PDX says:

      I remember the 107 and the KPTV Forecast forcast really sucks. I am praying for the marine push gods, the onshore flow gods, any COOL gods…

    • Matthew says:

      The only thing standing between a normal heat wave and a historic heat wave is that freaking ULL. I hate that thing.

  8. Matthew says:

    Matthew weather thinking as of 4pm

    Friday 84/56 Partly sunny turning sunny
    Saturday 90/58 Mostly Sunny
    Sunday 97/63 Mostly sunny
    Monday 101/68 Hot
    Tuesday 102/70 hot
    Wednesday 100/71 hot

    The ULL appears to stick around in Idaho for the next 24-48 hours into Sunday, this doesn’t allow for the ridge to build over the Northwest until later Sunday and Monday. Monday-Wednesday should be in the upper 90s and lower 100’s throughout Oregon and southwestern Washington.

  9. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Earlier in the week it was looking like 90 tomorrow, 95 Saturday, 100 Sunday. Now it has all been pushed back a day.

    I was quite surprised with the drizzle on the way to work this morning. Still just breaking up here.

  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Okay so 18z GFS kicks the ULL through northern Washington quicker now by Friday/Friday night, but keep it over northern/central Idaho through Monday… I’m not sure the ULL is going to just sit there and stall…. I am hoping not….. So far 18z looks toasty through FCST HR 78….

%d bloggers like this: