Hot Weather Ahead

July 21, 2009

Noctilucent Clouds overhead on the 15th - Ben Monjay

Noctilucent Clouds overhead on the 15th - Ben Monjay

I’m a bit behind the times apparently due to my week of vacation.  Our own Ben Monjay sent this picture which ended up at www.spaceweather.com  Sorry, that’s the largest size I could get the picture to load in.  Update 3:45pm WednesdayWow, I really screwed that one up.  The original picture that I put on there wasn’t Ben’s!  The correct one is now in.  Okay, on to the upcoming weather.  First, a nice push of marine air this evening.  I see Kelso already has low clouds at 10pm!  WRF-GFS implies that we’ll have significant low cloud cover the next 3 mornings.  Our temps through Friday only reflect a weak push, so I’m worried that 85-85-90 is too hot for the next three days.  Gut feeling is 83-83-87.  We’ll see.

So what has changed over the last 24 hours with respect to a possible heat wave?  Looks like it’s back on, then slightly off, now just delayed a bit.  The good times tracking an annoying upper-level low for the weekend continue.  I’m glad we didn’t go crazy on forecast high temps based on the 12z GFS today.  Just between you bloggers and I, my forecast actually started with a 103 on Sunday around 1pm today.  Then I lowered it to 101 around 2:45 after some deep thinking while doing makeup (required for TV).  Then the 18z GFS came out, plus the 12z ECMWF didn’t get me too excited about 100 degree heat.   The final version (what you see on the web and TV) was set around 3:15pm.  That’s how Drew and I ended up with highs below 100 degrees on the 7 Day forecast.
I’m impressed with the length of the upcoming heat regardless of whether we get to 100 degrees or not.  Looks like Saturday through at least next Wednesday we’ll see 90 plus degree weather.  The 00z GFS looks excellent for maximizing offshore flow, more like September than July due to a rare cool surface high over Montana.  If this model were to hold we’d get to 100-105. 
Chief Meteorologist – Mark Nelsen