Vacation Time

I have a few days off (well, actually more than a “few”) starting Friday, so no blog until Thursday the 2nd.

Now often we seem to have exciting weather while I have time off, but I really don’t see anything that could give us any sort of blizzard, ice storm, thunderstorm, or flood.  It IS the slowest time of the year in the weather center and also here on the blog I notice.  Seems like just a few comments trickle in each day, but that’s good because you should all be outside enjoying the beautiful Pacific Northwest.  That reminds me; at this week’s weather conference I kept hearing over and over about how beautiful it was here.  Many participants did the Gorge-Mt. Hood Loop and/or drove to the Coast.  Don’t ever take our wonderful part of the world for granted…but don’t let any of your friends move here;  it’s getting too crowded!

The GFS and ECMWF keep hinting that we may see ridging retrograde slightly closer to us late next week for our first hot spell of the season.  For now I don’t trust them, sensing that the offshore upper-low will be a bit closer to us than models show.  As always…we’ll see.  Obviously if the 00z GFS verified we’d have highs 90 degrees or above.

Mark Nelsen

176 Responses to Vacation Time

  1. Poolsidemike says:

    Can anybody tell me what the big blob that has suddenly sprouted up on radar due west of McMinnville is all about????

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    it was 95 degrees earlier, and not as windy as last few days. Finally! Supposed to be as hot tomorrow, hopefully hotter, because I love it!

  3. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    96.2 outside, 2nd day here this year above 90, and officially HIO’s first 90 degree day of the year.

    Record high-Low is 61 in 1998 in Hillsboro, we may make it.

  4. Tetra says:

    96.6F here. Anyone know when we will break record lows?

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    And wait…

    🙂

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    There aren’t that many storms at all. The state is almost clear. And the instability parameters finally decided to come down a whole lot, what luck! CAPE numbers aren’t looking any better next couple days, for anything interesting in this state to happen, we will have to wait…

  7. muxpux says:

    what is the accuracy of some of the stations on the NWS observations page?

    it has Liberal, OR at 99, and apparently they hit 101 earlier…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Sounds like they are pretty liberal with where they put their thermometers.

      • Mark Nelsen says:

        That Liberal station has been way too hot for at least 3-4 years. On a winter day with sunshine when we are near 50 it’ll be 59 or 60 down there.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That Liberal weather station has always been way too warm. I’ve seen it show 59 or 60 in winter when all the other areas around are 50.

  8. PeteyJ - Uptown Village Vancouver says:

    93.9 and climbing. Time to go melt on the Great Blue.

  9. Currently at this location: 87.3F Td 57.9 RH 37%…Light northerly breeze…Pressure at 29.83″

  10. Tetra says:

    Thanks 4 explaining about the solar watt thing as I thought it had to do with Solar Panels which meant I was wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy off.

    Hey Jesse I just have a quick question. How did you come to find out about this blog anyways as it’s never advertised at Western Weather forum.

  11. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    That is the one thing I didn’t even bother looking at! Well, what good is all of this if there is little or no moisture showing on WV satellite? I hope this changes over the next 6 hours or so…

  12. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    Timmy – I just don’t see enough moisture or any trigger coming over any part of the valley to initiate convection today. Looking at WV satellite, flow is from the SW so anything that forms on the Cascades will get pushed east.

    Would be more than happy to be wrong about this though.

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=wv&size=4

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Instability keeps climbing…

    Central/Southern Valley:

    SFC CAPE: 1250 J/kg
    ML CAPE: 500-750 J/kg
    MU CAPE: 1500 J/kg
    Lifted Index: -2 to -3

  14. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    While LI’s are at zero around Portland, LI’s are around -2 to -3 in the Central/Southern Willamette Valley. I personally think areas like Sweet Home and Eugene should have thunderstorms in the forecast at least.

    http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f018&startdate=2009070209&field=SREF_SFC_LI_

  15. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

    Thanks for the update Rob,

    A pleasant 53.6 when I left home at 6:00am but the sun was already warm.

  16. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Good morning all. Probably one of very few posts today as I am dealing with very bad dizzy/vertigo problems..

    Despite heading for hot temps in the 90-95F range it is chilly out this way. I’m currently 51.0F a full 13F cooler than PDX sitting at 64F. I can’t remember the last time I was either 10F warmer/colder than PDX. Surface gradients early this morning have turned very lightly offshore which will serve to heat us up just a bit faster today.

    Looking at the 00z WRF-GFS Mesoscale model I see on the night of the 4th/overnight looks like some weak elevated instability around 200-400J/kg moves up the Cascades, then for Sunday some type of disturbance approaches resulting in decent instability on the order of 500-1000J/kg moves over the Willamette Valley. This looks to occur from 1 PM – 9 PM time frame. 500mb winds also show this brief window of convective opportunity as the winds shift due southerly in response to the advancing trough out in the Pacific. I think right now this would mainly be a Foothills/Cascades possibility, but it does bare watching.

  17. Tetra says:

    Look I learn alot here okay?

    There will be newcomers coming in here that doesn’t know the difference betweeen a High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning.

    What does the Solar Watt stuff mean?

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) says:

      Tetra – It’s basically a measure of the amount of solar energy reaching the ground at the measuring site, JR’s station in this case expressed as Watts per square meter. Probably an average for the day.

      Basically what it tells you is how sunny or cloudy the day was. If you are a farmer it can be very usefull information to have.

  18. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I wonder why NWS doesn’t have any of the Valley forecast for storms? Is it the marine flow thats an issue perhaps? Hope not 😦

  19. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Still not so sure about this, it just doesn’t “feel right” at the moment…

  20. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Good deal of instability showing from Northern California all the way up to Western Washington on the 0300 UTC scan. Something is going to happen for sure.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f030&startdate=2009070121&field=SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__

    This instability has verified with thunderstorm development in Southern Oregon earlier this afternoon. So with good Lifted Index readings there could be storms throughout the Willamette Valley, possibly including even Portland.

    • Rob Martin says:

      I dont see enough to add in in the forecast for the imediate future. The LI is still above zero for the next 18hrs or so. I would not expect much of a chance to see any here in the valley.

      I do see there is some elevated cape numbers showing 24-30 hrs out and some decent vertical motion but its still not a “sure thing” by any means with the westerly flow up above. Best chances would be well south of us.

  21. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I am Rob. The page keeps saying “internet explorer cannot display webpage”

  22. Rob Martin says:

    Is anyone else having issues with Marks Weather Links?

  23. Definitely warmer tonight than the past several days. Winds should be more offshore tomorrow letting us warm up quicker than we did today. The temp should make it into the low 90’s tomorrow….

    High here today was 85.1F

    Currently 69.2F

  24. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Heat Advisory up for the Willamette Valley.

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    206 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009

    ORZ003>010-012-WAZ020-022-023-039-040-021515-
    /O.NEW.KPQR.HT.Y.0001.090702T1900Z-090704T0300Z/
    COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
    CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
    GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
    SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
    NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
    CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-WILLAPA HILLS-I-
    5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…VERNONIA…JEWELL…TRASK…
    GRANDE RONDE…TIDEWATER…SWISSHOME…ST. HELENS…CLATSKANIE…
    HILLSBORO…PORTLAND…OREGON CITY…GRESHAM…SALEM…
    MCMINNVILLE…DALLAS…EUGENE…CORVALLIS…ALBANY…HOOD RIVER…
    CASCADE LOCKS…MULTNOMAH FALLS…SANDY…
    SILVER FALLS STATE PARK…SWEET HOME…VIDA…LOWELL…
    COTTAGE GROVE…FRANCES…RYDERWOOD…LONGVIEW…KELSO…
    CASTLE ROCK…STEVENSON…SKAMANIA…VANCOUVER…BATTLE GROUND…
    WASHOUGAL…TOUTLE…ARIEL…COUGAR
    206 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009

    …HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT
    FRIDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HEAT
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 PM PDT
    FRIDAY.

    THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR THUS FAR IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
    AND FRIDAY AS WE ENTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY…VALLEY
    TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
    TEMPERATURES IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO
    BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

    A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY…BUT
    TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
    CLOSE TO 90 EVEN ON SATURDAY.

    AT RISK POPULATIONS CAN BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES
    DURING EPISODES OF HOT WEATHER. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TRY TO
    STAY OF THE SUN DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
    EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
    WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
    POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS…STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
    ROOM…STAY OUT OF THE SUN…AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
    NEIGHBORS.

  25. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Airmass is rapidly warming overhead. The breeze coming in tonight is warm, not chilly like the last few nights.

    Looks like I will set some personal records the next few days. My record high for tomorrow is just 86 back in 1996. Weird to think it has never been warmer than that in the last 12 years.

  26. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    My Stats:

    Avg High: 72.5
    Avg Low: 53.3
    Avg Peak Wind: WSW 16.7
    Rainfall: 0.67″ (-1.00″ or 40%)

    High: 86.3, 3rd
    Low: 45.9, 27th
    Wind: SE 41, 4th

    Cloudy: 15 Days
    Rainfall: 10 Days
    T-Storms: 2 Days

  27. my weather station – http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of June 2009

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 65.2°F
    Average humidity = 65%
    Average dewpoint = 52.0°F
    Average barometer = 29.909 in.
    Average windspeed = 2.4 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.6 mph
    Average direction = 318° ( NW)
    Rainfall for month = 0.913 in.
    Rainfall for year = 16.539 in.
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.130 in on day 19 at time 17:07
    Maximum temperature = 90.6°F on day 03 at time 14:40
    Minimum temperature = 47.5°F on day 30 at time 05:57
    Maximum humidity = 96% on day 06 at time 07:14
    Minimum humidity = 22% on day 23 at time 16:33
    Maximum pressure = 30.24 in. on day 27 at time 08:36
    Minimum pressure = 29.59 in. on day 04 at time 16:22
    Maximum windspeed = 15.0 mph from 180°( S ) on day 04 at time 17:14
    Maximum gust speed = 34.5 mph from 180°( S ) on day 04 at time 16:53
    Maximum heat index = 87.7°F on day 03 at time 14:30
    Record high dew point = 73.8 on june 15th at 16:47
    Record low dew point = 35.6 on june 27th at 20:52
    Record high UV = 7.0 on june 18th at 12:20

    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 78.6 on june 3rd
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 54.9 on june 21st
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 61.9 on june 5th
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 71.8 on june 4th

    Avg daily max temp :76.1°F
    Avg daily min temp :55.9°F
    Total windrun = 1720.9miles

    ——————————————
    Day, Sunshine hours, ET, max solar, max uv
    ——————————————
    01 01.3hrs ,ET :0.106 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    02 01.6hrs ,ET :0.091 in. ,200.0 W/M² ,2.0 uv
    03 02.3hrs ,ET :0.161 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    04 02.4hrs ,ET :0.102 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    05 00.5hrs ,ET :0.024 in. ,200.0 W/M² ,2.0 uv
    06 01.0hrs ,ET :0.055 in. ,300.0 W/M² ,3.0 uv
    07 01.1hrs ,ET :0.075 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    08 01.9hrs ,ET :0.087 in. ,500.0 W/M² ,5.0 uv
    09 02.3hrs ,ET :0.094 in. ,500.0 W/M² ,5.0 uv
    10 03.5hrs ,ET :0.079 in. ,0.0 W/M² ,0.0 uv
    11 02.2hrs ,ET :0.083 in. ,500.0 W/M² ,5.0 uv
    12 02.0hrs ,ET :0.071 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    13 01.0hrs ,ET :0.071 in. ,400.0 W/M² ,4.0 uv
    14 02.5hrs ,ET :0.130 in. ,300.0 W/M² ,3.0 uv
    15 01.7hrs ,ET :0.102 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    16 01.6hrs ,ET :0.091 in. ,400.0 W/M² ,4.0 uv
    17 02.2hrs ,ET :0.118 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    18 01.0hrs ,ET :0.075 in. ,700.0 W/M² ,7.0 uv
    19 01.3hrs ,ET :0.055 in. ,700.0 W/M² ,7.0 uv
    20 02.2hrs ,ET :0.098 in. ,700.0 W/M² ,7.0 uv
    21 01.8hrs ,ET :0.110 in. ,700.0 W/M² ,7.0 uv
    22 02.5hrs ,ET :0.130 in. ,700.0 W/M² ,7.0 uv
    23 02.0hrs ,ET :0.157 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    24 01.8hrs ,ET :0.110 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    25 02.5hrs ,ET :0.114 in. ,400.0 W/M² ,4.0 uv
    26 02.9hrs ,ET :0.146 in. ,700.0 W/M² ,7.0 uv
    27 02.6hrs ,ET :0.146 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    28 02.6hrs ,ET :0.142 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    29 02.6hrs ,ET :0.146 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv
    30 00.0hrs ,ET :0.000 in. ,600.0 W/M² ,6.0 uv

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    00.20 in. on day 4
    00.13 in. on day 5
    00.04 in. on day 12
    00.83 in. on day 19
    00.04 in. on day 20

  28. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    KUAO (Aurora Airport) now reporting 88°F. Decided to move inside to a/c until it cools off this evening. 🙂

  29. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Question: Hubby are flying back East on Saturday. I was wondering what the chance of thunderstorms around Portland International Airport that night?

  30. muxpux says:

    holy cow!

    check out the Brookings 3 day temp. chart. i know they have a very strange climate, but dang, thats a true “rollercoaster” climate…

    they are 43 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago…!

    they went from 70 to 59 in 15 min. at 7am.

    just nuts! amazing what a shift in the winds can do!

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