Weather Action Picks Up

First Thunderstorm Approaching Estacada Today

First Thunderstorm Approaching Estacada Today

Hoping for some good weather action during the evening shows…we’ll see.  More later.

4:30PM:  Obviously plenty of cloud to cloud lightning in the last hour and a half because there were no strikes on detection any closer than east of Estacada (in the image).  Thanks for the blog comments letting me know when you hear thunder.  I’m also timelapsing the nice group of towers up around Mt. St. Helens.  Should make a nice movie for the later shows!

10:15pm: Things sure died down quickly after 7pm tonight.  In fact all the action from 9pm to now has been 50 miles offshore of Newport and Lincoln City.   Low level atmosphere is moist this evening…whew!  Sweaty out there.  Looks like a good afternoon for scattered storms again tomorrow with easterly flow developing at all levels below 5,000′ helping out our surface heating as well.  Models continue to put most of the main action to our south tomorrow and Wednesday.  Generally this pattern is very good for storms west of the Cascades.  But no model shows a good trigger for a wild afternoon or evening of storms.  We’ll see. 

The bizarre unseasonably warm, but not hot, weather is going to continue for 2 more days.  There are signs of some sort of significant change coming up over the weekend.  No more of the real warm weather with high temps coming back down close to seasonal norms.  This time of year that would be near 70 or so.

405 Responses to Weather Action Picks Up

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Snow-Zone, mine too…. I like it.

  2. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Hmmm, a blip echo now over central Marion County. Something is trying to develop.

  3. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    The A.M. radio is going crazy with all the lightning.

  4. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    That sounds good to me, large hail and very heavy rain is probably the bigger issue.

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Mike (Sweet Home),

    Zoomed radar image

    Look what may be heading your way. Fun!

  6. Post again from previous page:
    Hearing plenty of thunder in the distance and now starting to see distant flashes of lightning to my SSE.

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Looking at Base Velocities and the forward motion I’d say perhaps a burst of 35-45mph maybe 50mph tops.

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    It is possible. I’m at 22% humidity right now.

  9. Tetraforce says:

    I’ll try again tomorrow evening to ask it.

  10. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    How strong could the winds be with this storm Rob?

  11. Tetraforce says:

    Last time I am asking this.

    Is my Oregon Scientific Station humidity reader broken? I am at 21% with a temp of 92.5F (continued hot)

  12. Hearing plenty of thunder in the distance and now starting to see distant flashes of lightning to my SSE.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    IMO that cell only needs a bit more organization and yeah it will be warned.

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Mike (Sweet Home),

    You MIGHT get absolutely hammered!

  15. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    How much more strength does the T-storm off to the east of Eugene need to gain before it becomes sever, it must be close.

  16. pedro771-tigard says:

    Wow, that is one impressive mega storm near Eugene right now!

  17. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Now warmed up to 93! Very impressive looking down to the S.E. It looks like the big cell coming up from Oakridge is merging with storms coming off from the cascades by Sweet Home. To form a massive T-storm complex.

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I just cheated on Fox12, and I truly apologize. I was just watching Matt Z. and he shows an explosion of storms over all of western Oregon (including PDX/VUO metro areas) tomorrow….

  19. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Marginal.

    The only hope I have is on WV loop everything is pushing N-NW so I’m hopeful additional cells will fire over Jefferson, Marion, and eventually Clackamas County this evening.

  20. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Rob, is there enough shear for supercells?

  21. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Nah, I don’t see any bow echos or lines forming. Just a scattering of very strong storms.

  22. Starting to hear thunder to my east, haven’t seen any lightning yet.

  23. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Anyone think these storms could maintain their strength as they travel to the NW. They will run into continued very warm air out ahead of them?

  24. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Is the storm north of Oakridge bowing or is that coincidence?

  25. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Wow, that really is an impressive complex of storms north of Oakridge.

  26. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Yeah, not very… 15-20mph.

  27. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Now there are 3 good hail signatures. KEEP IT GOING

  28. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Rob, can you tell how fast the T-storms are moving?

  29. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Good line forming now.

  30. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Those storms popping up around Sweet Home look like the shape of a backward “S” or bow shape.

  31. Tetraforce says:

    Thanks for the answer about CAP.

    Now about my humidity reading it sitlll shows 21% taht can’t be right……………………..

  32. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    NWS really REALLY needs to consider issuing a warning for Lane County.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Just like the last few times, they never bothered issuing one, so a warning is actually not likely since they simply ignore. lol

      Let’s just call it a severe thunderstorm anyways!
      No warning is needed

  33. Hope that storm keeps coming my way.
    Cloudy
    Temp 81.8°
    DP 59.0°
    RH 46%
    Winds 2-5 from the NW

  34. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oakridge storm attributes:

    Hail Size: 1.50″
    VIL: 59 kg/m-2
    VIL Density: 4.79 (3.50 being favorable for 3/4″ hail)
    dBZ: 61
    Top: 40,400 ft.

    Incredible

  35. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    4:30 PM SPC Thermodynamic Fields

    Willamette Valley (Salem north)
    SB CAPE: 250-1000
    ML CAPE: 0-1000
    MU CAPE: 600-1000
    LIFTED INDEX: -1 to -4
    Mid-Level Lapse Rates: 6.5
    Low-Level Lapse Rates: 8.5 to 9
    Instability increased a bit and surface CAP weakened a bit as well.

    Salem southward to California Border
    SB CAPE: 1000-2000
    ML CAPE: 1000-2000
    MU CAPE: 1000-2000
    LIFTED INDEX: -4 to -8
    Mid-Level Lapse Rates: 6.5 to 7
    Low-Level Lapse Rates: 7 to 9
    Bit of a surface CAP developing from Roseburg to Medford, but no CAP north of there.

  36. Nice cell indeed in Lane County…Concerned that even tho it appears that the activity is moving northward, the upper level low is starting to drift eastward with time.

    86.5F Td 55.6 RH 35%..pressure down to 29.824″

  37. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Definitely two storms in that complex from the looks of it DBZ of 50+ in two distinctly separate locations.

  38. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    I can see the thunder head over by Sweet Home looks good, also feels really hot 92, hopefully there will be some storms that pop up later this evening.

  39. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Oakridge is getting pounded by at least pea/marble sized hail….

  40. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Almost looks like a small complex is forming around the Sweet Home storm.

  41. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Cottage Grove cell is weakening, but the one next to it is strengthening again. I hope everything works out as anticipated.

  42. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Looks like hail’s being reported E. of Sweet Home. I’d name this one a “strong” thunderstorm.

  43. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Sweet Home cell has pulsed upwards slightly.

  44. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Perhaps as this band of CU on Visible Imagery moves northward and the deeper moisture is associated with/behind it that we will see cells fire over Marion and southern/southeastern Clackamas County by 6 PM.

  45. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Now Oakridge is a target for a possible severe thunderstorm. If this continues, we could be looking at a possible outbreak with numerous hail reports.

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