Warmest So Far…

By Sunday we will have seen 11 consecutive days above 70!
By Sunday we will have seen 11 consecutive days above 70!

I checked out the last 20 Mays during some spare time this evening.  Looks like this is the first time we have had a long stretch of nice weather in May since 1997.  In 1997 and 1995 we saw a thirteen day stretch of warm temps, but at least in 1995 there was some rain and a brief downturn during that period.  I remember the 1997 warm spell;  two weeks of summer and then cool and wet spring weather resumed.  That doesn’t appear to be the case this year since I still don’t see a huge change in the weather for next week.

The thunderstorm activity seems to be dying down now after a nice surge around South Sister during showtime tonight.  A nice repeat on the way tomorrow too.
We are going to transition from: 1. A hot upper level ridge just to our southeast to 2. A new upper level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska while an upper level low sits offshore of California (a Rex Block).  The net effect means very little to the forecast.  Surface high pressure coming down from the northeast Sunday through Tuesday keeps a strong onshore flow from cooling us off dramatically through the period.  Basically a very stable weather pattern will continue.  Still lots of uncertainty towards the middle of next week, but no model solution turns us back towards cool and showery weather.   I feel I made a good choice putting up the kid’s pool early this year.  The water temp is up to 70 degrees or so after starting around 55.  Maybe 75-80 by Sunday?
I’ll be off Friday and then back on Monday.  I’m taking some random days off next week too so I can attend to some family (kid) functions.  Mark Nelsen

177 Responses to Warmest So Far…

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    New Post!

  2. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Maybe we see the cap breaking soon…looks like a few echoes starting to come into play JUST to the SE of portland, have to wait and see.

  3. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    SPC thermodynamic show plenty of instability both surface based and elevated, but there appears to be some surface CAP. Lifted Index is negative everywhere, so that’s favorable as well. Elevated storms are firing from Estacada southeastward to eastern Linn County. Unfortunately if you’re in PDX/VUO metro it appears that activity is swinging around the northern periphery of the circulation pulling them from east to west which may not allow them to reach much further north than we are seeing now. WV loop shows this and the cut-off low is slowly moving ESE offshore which is going to pull things even further south over time. So let’s enjoy what we have now or tonight if we see flashes….

  4. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Rob, any updates on the SPC parameters around Oregon? I think Cape is suppose to be pretty good this evening…not amazing but at least something.

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    AM radio is quite active with lightning. It is very muggy outside.

    • Sarah (E Gresham) says:

      Your right, it is. I’ve been sitting outside on my patio doing homework for the last 2.5 hours, I’ve definitely felt an increase in mugginess…that’s actually what prompted me to check in on the doppler a little while ago.

  6. Sarah (E Gresham) says:

    Starting to get cloud cover here…and no more sun. I have my fingers crossed that I’ll see a little action. I’m getting impatient.

  7. APT says:

    Starting to rain pretty heavy in Tualatin, winds picking up too.

  8. N3EG says:

    If anyone’s interested in a boring view of the skies north of Longview, I have a webcam up on my home page.

    Can’t point it southeast because of trees, etc. and lack of a USB extender.

  9. kyle--- east vancouver says:

    Seems to be moving in our direction and it seems early in the day for it

  10. Mark Nelsen says:

    About 12 strikes in the last 15 minutes only about 10 miles ESE of Colton/Estacada

  11. kyle--- east vancouver says:

    it looks real good on all radars and lightning detection is good except for the bend one is picking up a lot of false traces

  12. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    where is everyone? lol

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