A Quiet Wednesday

May 27, 2009

Not a whole lot to talk about tonight.  I’m loving our current weather pattern.  Not as a meteorologist of course, but it’s wonderful to wake up to warm sunshine almost every day.  I’ve been messing around in the yard and garden each morning (way ahead of last year!), then riding bicycle for a couple hours in the evenings between shows.  Feels like midsummer, except temps have been a bit cooler than we would generally see in July and August. 

The weather pattern changes the next 4-5 days are pretty straightforward, then it gets messy after that.  The strong upper-level ridge over the Desert S.W. bulges north the next 48 hours with rising heights over us.  That also shoves the moisture and instability for thunderstorms farther north and west.  No model shows any storms developing either tomorrow or Friday west of the Cascades and I agree.  The flow is too southwesterly and there is no triggering shortwave.  Then the upper high gets “dented” by a trough passing by to the north Saturday and Sunday, turning the upper flow westerly.  That pushes the storms way over to east and southeastern Oregon.  Low level flow here west of the Cascades never goes offshore or easterly during this period;  we just get weaker onshore flow.  I have a gut feeling the 88 forecast high we have for Friday may be too high.  We’ll see.

Beyond Sunday, models are in disagreement.  The GFS and ECMWF both have a strong upper-level trough moving into California (rare for June), mainly bypassing us.  At the same time a weak trough drops in from the north out of Canada.  Neither one bodes much or any rainfall for us.  I see the new 00z GFS just bounces upper-level heights back up over us next week, prolonging the warm spell.  ECMWF isn’t quite as warm.

All in all, it looks like the warmer than average weather is going to continue over the next 7-10 days.  I just finished planting all my warm weather stuff yesterday in the garden;  corn, beans, pumpkins are all in.  Things are definitely running ahead of the past few years on the Nelsen “farm”…okay, back-yard raised beds, but you get the idea.

Mark Nelsen