One thing still sticks out on the weather maps tonight…the unusually warm and dry weather is going to continue. It’s not that it’s been VERY warm or hot by any means, but consistently “perfect”. The last 5 days have been: 74, 75, 74, 75, 74 at PDX. That’s very consistent don’t you think? Sure, overnight temps have been a bit chilly, but with clear skies plus relatively low dewpoints you can expect that. It does appear that dewpoints should rise a bit the next few days (at least acccording to models), so I raised the overnight temps a bit.
In the short term there is a weak front moving towards us. It is the leading edge of a large upper-level low pressure area that is sitting over the Gulf of Alaska. The dead/dying front drags by to our north tomorrow, so we should see a minor marine push plus some mid-high level clouds too. I notice freezing levels only rise over the next 72 hours though even as the disturbance moves by, so not much cooling either tomorrow or Wednesday.
By Thursday an upper-level high to our south expands northward as a new upper-level low develops farther to the west and southwest of us. This heats things up a bit, but that’s without the low level flow actually going offshore. So I figure about 10 degrees warmer from what we had today by Thursday and Friday. The upper level flow over us and especially eastern Oregon turns southerly around the upper-level high, which MAY bring monsoonal-type moisture north for thunderstorms. I’ll be over in Maupin this weekend for a bicycle ride…so MAYBE there will be some lightning over there. By the way it’s a fundraiser for the Juniper Flat Rural Fire Department, so if anyone else wants to ride 40 miles through the desert (fresh sagebrush aroma!) feel free to join me.
In general there doesn’t appear to be a significant shift of any sort towards cooler/wetter weather in the long range maps. So for the first time in several years, I’m planting my entire garden within the last week of May. I live in a cooler area and the chilly showers often rot the warm weather veggies. But this appears to be the year to get going early!
On another note, looks like some shifting around in the Portland TV weather scene. I alluded to this a week or so ago. Possibly one morning weather person is moving to an evening slot and booting the evening guy out. This doesn’t affect KPTV/KPDX or anyone here for that matter. You are sure welcome to discuss it, but I won’t add any new thoughts until I confirm details in the next few days.
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
Mark, thanks for the update and info.
My thoughts are I liked Rod Hill quite a bit. I do think when him and Wrongda would team up that he wasn’t at his best. I liked his thorough analysis, attention to detail, and enthusiasm he showed.
Dave Salesky is good as well, but in a different way. He’s much more of an on-air personality and relays to the viewing public a general but bland forecast. You can definitely tell he isn’t a degreed met.
Ryan, good seeing you over there as well. That was a calm night compared to when they see severe outbreaks. I’m pretty much always there when there are t-storms.
So now onto the weather…. Another brilliant day out there. I just read the NWS AFD… I’m only posting the info that really caught my eye. S or SE flow aloft sounds good to me. Sound like anything to you guys? T-storms perhaps? 🙂
.LONG TERM…MID RANGE MODELS GRASPING AT A SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND WHICH SLOWLY SLIDES A PAC UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE N CA COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION IN S OR SE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG IN SOLUTION DETAILS AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
RW
Same here Rob. Been a steady climb all morning and early afternoon. I expect to it 80 today. Perfect for relaxing outside with a beer.
Beautiful day out. Maybe the girls will start to migrate outdoors now.
Wonder if this works?
Well I just hit 72F …. Either the onshore push is delayed or weaker than previously expected.
it works ya im at 80 right now… very surprised
Ok,
I’ve had no problems in the past with this name with #’s. It will be interesting to see if it works today.
Whatever you did on this comment sent it to “spam”. I just approved it.
Nothing new, interesting…
Thanks Timmy for replying.
Does anyone know how bad the spring flooding got in 1963? Was it as bad as the numbers looked?
If JR’s note and this note go through without you having to approve them, Mark, it’s probably the apostrophe that denoted feet that was tossing it to the spam folder. Does this one go through fine?
Nope…this one was waiting for me to approve.
huh?
oh lol nvm. i have never had a problem with my name being considered spam and i got numbers always in my name.
have fun in maupin mark! place is one small town but nice to get away once in awhile. my grandparents have a house right by the school on the hill that over looks the river. plus amazing fishing in the deschutes river!
A weekend like that makes it all worth it… I can’t wait until the next one if that 7-day holds out like it is right now.
Mark,
If this needs approval, let me know, and I will strip the numbers from my name as well…
This one went into the spam folder.
This should fix it… Thanks!
Or this…
Well, let’s test with numbers in the name. I haven’t posted in a few days, but I haven’t had any problems.
Must be the numbers. This comment was in the spam folder this morning. I just manually approved it.
Woo nice.
Finally got those excel sheets to you mark
Mark Mark Mark, what am I going to do with you?
If you are a sun worshipper it’s time to rejoice like the coming of the Messiah as this is what Andy in Woodinville Washington says.
quote:
“A quick look at 18z/00zGFS shows that after a weakening front slides through for tomorrow, that our weather will make a return to warmer and more sunnier conditions as a ridge of high pressure strengthens a bit over the Western US and into the PNW. Should see highs back in the low 70`s to maybe mid 70`s as thicknesses will be around the 560`s to low 560`s with 500mb heights in the low-mid 570`s. A weakening system passing through southern BC for early weekend might clip us by, but most look to only give some clouds at times, but still plenty sunny for Sat/Sun with highs near 70 to low 70`s as our ridge looks to weaken some over the weekend. Dry/ mild weather looks to possibly last into Mon following week with maybe a chance of showers on Tue.” quote:
No chance of showers until next Tuesday bloggers.
I sure hope it’s sunny at Port Townsend also as they tend to be cloudier I think.
Unless a thunderstorm over the Cascades on Thursday decides to drift NW that is. It depends on how close the storms are to the Valley and which direction the monsoon is feeding from. Who knows…
Yeah, the last few runs haven’t been as bullish for Tstorms west of the cascades but with crisp clear skies, you might be able to sit back in a big grassy field and watch some lightning over the cascades later this week if we’re lucky. Still a chance we could get a drifter heh?
TV, yes, i will miss the met as well, my personal preference, I like the met that is taking over but “that person” is much more conservative IMO, and not as fun to watch. I hope the person leaving finds something locally so we can watch.
Oh the weather outside is delightful, the lawn is loving it, let’s keep it going, although I wouldn’t mind some excitment soon! It’s been a good break in the weather department, i’m sure Mark is enjoying the “lag time” for now!
Rob, glad to see you can post.
It’s been a great weekend and start of the week. I think the high clouds will be welcomed. All that sun and I’m starting to forget where I live….Am I in Arizona ? As for the TV changes, as the OR AMS President, I have no official comment except to say, I will miss the one met and I hope he finds something locally soon !
through with* it
I am liking this trend so far. This spring I think beats many others face first to the ground. On going sunshine ontop of a severe thunderstorm we haven’t had in a decade, I’ll take that any time!
I really do hope the monsoonal flow comes through it, I am not done tracking severe weather, I have only begun. 🙂
Rob Wrath
Test…
Seems to be working fine now…
Okay, so let’s give this name a shot. It might work finally.
So is anyone beginning to think this could be a very bad if not devastating Summer forest fire season? If we remain this dry and the monsoon season verifies as forecast I do think it is very possible.
Weird, but my highs the last 5 days have been:
72,72,72,72,72
Lows anywhere from 38-45
Perfect weather!
I would have to say this has been the most enjoyable Spring I can ever remember. I really hope this is the dominant pattern through Rose Festival week into Summer and that we do not regress back to a cooler and wetter pattern. You know eventually if we can keep the onshore flow and troughs far enough back into the Gulf of Alaska that the flow will turn favorably for active t-storms. Matter of time…..
Wrath: I thought I was starting to have the same posting issues as you, that last post took at least 5 minutes to show up and the one before that a day or two ago never did.
Mike, I’ve had to approve both of yours manually tonight and the other day too. That’s why there has been a delay. Both of you are using numbers in your name. Maybe that’s the problem? Try without it.
Test without numbers.
Well that seemed to work. Thanks Mark.
Okay I tried my old name. No luck. Back to this one.
I’m wondering why the onshore breezes compared to the past several evenings has been almost non-existent. I figured with a stronger onshore push overnight/tomorrow AM that the cooling breezes would have been well established by now… Dead calm winds here.
10 PM Observations
Kelso: 55F NW @ 3
Portland: 63F NNW @ 3
Hillsboro: 58F NW @ 5
Astoria: 52F CALM
Definitely no sign of any marine intrusion. Let’s check the onshore surface pressure gradients.
As of 10 PM
AST-DLS: +4.5 mb | 0.6mb Decrease
AST-PDX: +1.2 mb | 0.5mb Decrease
OTH-EUG: +2.0 mb | 0.9mb Decrease
Decreasing…. But with the weak front moving towards show this should change in the coming hours.
Trying my old name…
I’m wondering why the onshore breezes compared to the past several evenings has been almost non-existent. I figured with a stronger onshore push overnight/tomorrow AM that the cooling breezes would have been well established by now… Dead calm winds here.
10 PM Observations
Kelso: 55F NW @ 3
Portland: 63F NNW @ 3
Hillsboro: 58F NW @ 5
Astoria: 52F CALM
Definitely no sign of any marine intrusion. Let’s check the onshore surface pressure gradients.
AST-DLS: +4.5 mb | 0.6mb Decrease
AST-PDX: +1.2 mb | 0.5mb Decrease
OTH-EUG: +2.0 mb | 0.9mb Decrease
Decreasing…. But with the weak front moving towards show this should change in the coming hours.
This is perhaps the first time in several years that western Oregon can get away with thinking of Memorial Weekend, and late May in general, as being the start of summer rather than a continuation of spring.
(This is Rob “Wrath”)
Mark, thanks for the update. Sounds like an enjoyable area to pedal a bike. We need the 4 corners high to sharpen a bit more than models show and position itself a bit more northwest to pull southerly flow along the entire stretch of the Cascades instead of mainly Mt. Jefferson/Three Sisters southeastward.
I realize I have not been on my A-game weather wise for quite awhile now. I am simply spending most of my time with my music and creating/composing.
I’ll be using this name until Mark can figure out why WordPress refuses to allow me to post with my other one. I also tried to create an account and it won’t let me. Odd….
I agree, the 00z GFS is not as nice looking for T’storms west of the Cascades as the 12z was.