The GFS giving it up a bit…

A very short post because I took a nice long bike ride, then ended up on the phone discussing some possible big changes in the Portland TV weather people “scene”.  How’s that for a tease?  Basically I was doing some weather gossip.  Don’t worry, it doesn’t affect anyone here at FOX-12.

Well, the 00z GFS has suddenly veered towards the ECMWF solution for Monday-Tuesday, keeping upper-level heights much higher, 850mb temps warmer, and digging an approaching trough much farther offshore.  It’s really obvious when you look at the 12z, 18z, 00z 500mb height comparison for Monday afternoon.  This link is a good place to view it.  I notice the 850 mb temp over PDX is 15-16 now compared to 5 Monday afternoon on the new GFS.  So I bumped Monday back up to 80, which could be low.  We’ll see.  Okay, time to slather the makeup on again…Mark Nelsen

34 Responses to The GFS giving it up a bit…

  1. Karl says:

    Mark my email is andreskarl4697@gmail.com. I really want to know what huge changes are coming to Portland tv weather. Please email me asap

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Email is the easiest way. My email is

    timmy_morar@yahoo.com

    whats yours?

  3. Tetraforce says:

    Also I wouldn’t mind some radar imagery. how do you wish to send it?

    I can give yot my email which I’ve done before on this blog.

  4. Tetraforce says:

    I actyally remember summer 1999 now.

    We were at Rite Aid and Safeway shopping complex on WestField street and there was lightning all around us while mom was buying out the stores.

    The skies looked very scary to me just before the storms erupted though we were lucky and had no power outages.

    We lieved at 326 north Church Street for several years. (rental)

    I’m almost too excited to type this so please cuse any errors.

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I have Level 2 radar data off of August 1999 if you want me to show you some imagery.

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I live in the very eastern side of Hillsboro (just a couple blocks away from Beaverton)

    There was so much thunder and lightning with those eerie looking orange/red looking skies we had. Some hail about penny sized in my area. A relative said he had hail about 2 inches in diameter at the Sandy area, next to Boring. Numerous power outages all over the Metro, similar to what we had earlier this month. No strong winds reported however. When one storm reached my area on the 6th, the rain was phenomenal, thunder was ominous sounding. Warnings were pretty much issued for every storm that erupted. It was an active week for sure. The storms started on the 3rd, and ended on the 7th I believe.

  7. Tetraforce says:

    What happened at your place Timmy during 1999 and what city/town do you live in?

  8. Tetraforce says:

    For you but here in Silverton I remember thunderstorms off to the east at our house on Church Street.

    The records at Salem Airport don’t hold much luck for strong storms but at least the summers were cool (not hot)

  9. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    What do you mean Triforce? Those storms were really strong!

  10. Tetraforce says:

    If we have thunderstorms like August 1999 I’ll be in for a huge dissapointment.

  11. Mback says:

    Yes Ryan, but was he driving a Ford???

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      LOL, YES! HE WAS!!! 2010 Ford F150, you can verify that when the movie comes out!

  12. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Well that was unexpected! I’m here at work in hillsboro and out of the Blue Harrison Ford drives by behind a filming truck!! He actually stopped right at the intersection (that had traffic stopped) and waived at us!! Proceeded to get out of the truck, walk up to the film crew, then back to the truck he was driving, drove by about 7 times over the course of an hour! That was AWESOME!!! INDIE RULES!!!

  13. 12Z GFS now has us dry all next week along with very warm temps….I think we can live with that

    57.5F

  14. Tetraforce says:

    It’s 59f NOW and I had a high of 70F yesterday.

    Andy in Woodinville WA says this.

    Andy in Woodinville Posted Today, 12:41 AM
    from what the 00zGFS, looks like our ridge could possibly last into Monday, with trough still coming through around Tue morning sometime.

    Who’s excited? Uusally he does much longer posts about the models but I guess there is just too much agruing about “nice weather” going on.

    He is one cool guy in Western Weather.

  15. Tetraforce says:

    Anybody up for some snow and/or ice in 7 months? If were lucky it might be 6 months.

  16. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    We will see snow in the next 12 months to the valley floor, that’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it.

    • Timmy (Scappoose ~60') says:

      you are full of it!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I’d say snow on the Valley floor as well, but nothing like last December. Maybe an inch or two? This isn’t even my opinion. The weather has been wacky lately you have to admit, and I have no choice but to follow what the weather has been doing the last 6 months. Go snow!

      Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think summer I am predicting summer ’09 to be one of the biggest thunderstorm outbreaks to date. (Sorta like August ’99)

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Sorry about the sloppy writing. lol here is a correction:

      I am predicting Summer ’09 to the one of the biggest thunderstorm outbreaks. (similar to August 1999)

  17. EA_TTD says:

    FWIW, 6z has eliminated precip. for mid next week all together and has gone almost completely dry.

  18. Runrain says:

    Maybe Sussman will be changing places with his San Fran forecaster brother!

  19. hiophil says:

    Time seems to fly. Today is an auspicious day as it is the start of the East Pacific hurricane season.

    TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
    SEASON…WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM ANNUAL
    AVERAGES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 15 AND
    9 RESPECTIVELY.

    THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

    NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
    ————————————————————-
    ANDRES AHN DRASE- MARTY
    BLANCA BLAHN- KAH NORA
    CARLOS OLAF OH- LAHF
    DOLORES PATRICIA
    ENRIQUE ANH REE- KAY RICK
    FELICIA FA LEE- SHA SANDRA
    GUILLERMO GEE YER- MO TERRY
    HILDA VIVIAN
    IGNACIO EEG NAH- CIO WALDO
    JIMENA HE MAY- NA XINA ZEE- NAH
    KEVIN YORK
    LINDA ZELDA ZEL- DAH

    Meanwhile at home, there is what appears to be frost on my neighbor’s roof.

  20. Clear skies and 38.7°, here comes the sun!

  21. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Belated YAY for the WET May!

  22. Steve Pierce (Vancouver) says:

    … and the breaking local tv weasther news is —- Steve Pierce will be making his weather debut soon on PDX TV and will demand $450k a year,,, and gets it! 🙂

    SP

  23. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    So we could possibly see three 80+ degree days? I really hope so! This is in the dead middle of May now, and highs are still cold like it isn’t even Spring yet. Today was warmer, but before that it was breezy. I think after another week or so, we wont see any more 50 degree highs. Its official.

  24. EA_TTD says:

    Great link and thanks for reminding us of its existence Mark.

  25. …just my little bit o’ gossip..i’ve moved, i now live close to Barton Park…on a hill for a change, and not down in a hole!!!!!…my new elevation is 325 feet, so, probably no more Larry’s getting the snow!!!!

  26. EA_TTD says:

    First…and good news about Monday. Any gossip sharing here??

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