AMS Meeting Thursday

We have an Oregon Chapter AMS meeting this Thursday.  Anyone is welcome for good food and weather chat.  Dinner generally seems to cost $10-$20 if my memory is correct.  Remember that you don’t actually have to eat, you could just come and have a drink, socialize, and steal someone else’s cup of spumoni ice cream…just not mine.  Actually I don’t think I’ll make it to this meeting since it’s so far from work, so grab some from someone else.

 

May AMS Meeting – “Rose Festival Weather”

Date: Thursday, May 14th
Time:  6:00-9:00pm (Dinner at 6:00pm)
Location: Old Spaghetti Factory in Clackamas 12725 SE 93rd Ave Clackamas, OR 97015

George Miller… meteorologist, writer, historian and college instructor… will share his interesting findings upon review of 100+ years of Rose Festival weather records!

For complete meeting details and driving directions, please see —

http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/OR-AMS_meeting_May14-2009.pdf

TONIGHT’S WEATHER:  Easy forecast through about Sunday, but the last two days of the extended forecast are messy.  Warm up still looks great Friday through Sunday, but the last few runs of the GFS have shown a deep and fast moving upper-level trough swinging through the Pacific Northwest Monday.  Meanwhile, the 12z ECMWF went the other direction.  It has the energy digging far offshore pumping up a hot ridge over us.  It doesn’t get much more extreme than this:  00z GFS has 850 mb temp Monday afternoon over PDX of -1!  The 12z ECMWF has about 21!  So…it’s either going to be 93 or 60 for a high in Portland on Monday!  Now that’s some fun forecasting.  We decided to leave the two 85 degree temps in the forecast until things flesh out tomorrow.  I have a gut feeling that tonight’s 00z ECMWF will make a dramatic change towards the GFS solution.  I do notice that both models keep us relatively dry next week.

I’ve turned off the “Gravatars” (the pictures) in the comments for now, let me know (in the comments) what you think.  Seems like only some of us were using them and maybe a few were annoyed by them.

44 Responses to AMS Meeting Thursday

  1. hiophil says:

    Oh, I had to build a fire to warm up the place this evening. Very unusual for May evening.

  2. hiophil says:

    50.5 so far for a high here, 51 for Hillsboro airport so far today, well below the record-low high of 55 for the day. I doubt it gets much warmer before midnight.

  3. Runrain says:

    OK. I’m changing my vote to “I want to move to Palm Springs”! This is ridiculous. It was winter today. I usually spend time in AZ in December. I think I’ll change that to May in the future!!!

  4. Tri,

    Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner I’ve been having a rough time lately. During the squall I didn’t have any power issues. My peak gust was 38.4mph.
    ——————————————-
    Mike(Orchards),

    Earlier I was viewing some chaser cams and Bart Comstock was chasing in Missouri near the Kirksville area…. He was on a tornado warned storm that had a history of producing damaging tornadoes. Suddenly the winds ahead of him became extremely bad…. He then shifted into reverses immediately driving backwards as fast as possible. At times he wasn’t even remaining on the road because he was desperately trying to get away from the tornado. It was very captivating to watch.
    ——————————————-
    Fairly strong winds on the coast tonight…
    Newport (Yaquina Bay Bridge) G 57mph

    • Sounds very scary. You take a lot of risk storm chasing and some of those tornadoes today probably reached at least EF3 on the Fujita scale……Right now, there are a half-dozen tornado warnings (make that 8 now) with countless severe t-storm/flash flood warnings…

      0.60″ rain total so far here…51.8F

  5. I don’t mind the pictures, sure we don’t always use them, but at least the option is there. I will take some nice sunny days, even if it’s only in the 70’s like it would be in mid/late June.

  6. Rob, interesting weather pattern. It looks to be somewhat tropical in nature, but it is cold here with these strong South winds

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?fronts_ir+1

  7. Only at high of 49F with 0.28 inches of rain so far. A low of 35 this morning “in the Grove”.

    Can you say Juneuary or Rose Festival Weather. It is just around the corner!!

  8. TriforceofEternity says:

    😦

  9. TriforceofEternity says:

    Looks like my high is 52F and I had a low of 41F. I sure wish I live in Orchard Jesss’s ice-box since he/she had a low of 34F.

    That’s only a little warmer then our freezer at home.

  10. Kay Bradley says:

    Whiner girl here… how come there is an RSS feed for individual blog entries – but not one for the blog homepage? I see where KPTV offers RSS feeds on all main sections – except weather. Am I just blind and/or stupid and missing the link to set up RSS for new posts (not necessarily all the replies)?

  11. Mike in Orchards says:

    Large outbreak of tornadoes in the plains states currently…

    Large outbreak of “rain” here….

    Maybe not so hot this weekend?? Upper 70’s would still suit me just fine…

    Chilly 47.8F here

  12. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I meant February. Average temp of 42 is seasonal then.

  13. Jesse-Orchards says:

    High of 50 so far today with a morning low of 34. That is impressively cold for the middle of May. Average temp of 42 is more what one would expect in January.

    Currently 47 with light to moderate rain. The new 7-day looks pretty optimistic for next week. I think Mark is ready for some consistently warmer weather. 😆

    18Z doesn’t show us getting any higher than upper 70s over the weekend.

  14. Definitely windy up north from Kalama thru the Longview/Kelso areas…lighter winds here.

    0.32″ rain total here since noon…

    47.9F

  15. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    I just talked with our “special guest” for tomorrow night’s AMS meeting and I think we are all going to be in for a treat!

    See you all there at the meeting and social hour!

    SP

  16. Have a poll for it mark! I say have the Gravatars on here!

  17. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    I think it’s going to rain

  18. Ben Monjay says:

    Count me in for Gravitars.

  19. vernonia1 says:

    Sure is windy here right now….much more than normal(as per GOLU) LOL

  20. muxpux says:

    hmmm, well after i typed that, went outside and noticed the winds have picked upsome. but definitely not 20-30mph. and btw…its still cold as heck out there. 46 on my thermometer. 48 at kelso NWS…with wind chill in the 30’s…brrr

    cant wait for the heat this weekend

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      A lot of the reporting stations around Kelso are also reporting some gusty winds. I think the winds may be stronger because I-5 is built at the lowest point in the valley (basically the Willamette Valley) which extends north to Olympia. The south winds don’t get stopped here. The winds are somewhat blocked in Longview and further west of I-5 because of the coast range. Hope that makes sense.

      Wind is basically calm here, maybe 5mph.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Now that I look, very strange Kelso has winds to near 30 mph, while Astoria is CALM.

  21. muxpux says:

    odd. NWS kelso station reporting sustained winds around 20 and gusting to 30mph.

    all the wunderground sensors in my area are showing calm winds. GOLU method confirms calm winds too.

    the kelso station is maybe 5 miles due east of me…along I-5…whats going on here?

  22. CBC-Tech @ 100' in Washougal (OHGC) says:

    I like the avatars. It makes quick work of scanning over the blog for your favorite poster’s comments. And as a visual reference to where you left off reading the last time. It adds a bit of personality me thinks. 😉

    Anyway, personal opinion… No weather to report.

  23. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    12z GFS pushes off the cooling until overnight Monday into Tuesday, then followed by warmer weather until maybe the 24th (a long ways out I know) when it shows another trough moving in, but also some moisture moving in from the south.

  24. Gidrons says:

    Darn, wish I could make the meeting but I’ll be up in the mountains. I liked the gravatars

  25. A few record lows fell in Eastern Oregon this morning. Just glancing, but it looks like Baker City and Burns both broke record lows. Radar starting to fill up along the coastline.

  26. All I hope is that it’s warm the next few days while I’m in town. While I’m gone it’s supposed to be mid 90s to 100 down here! Good time for a trip! 🙂

  27. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280') says:

    37 at my place, and 35 at the airport this morning. Pretty cold for mid May. I don’t think the S winds ahead of the front are going to get us up to 60 today like I heard on the radio this morning.

    Rain is already pushing into the Coast Range this morning.

    Gravitars/Avatars are ok with me.

  28. Sorry…meant George Miller…

  29. Cool 39° this am…Clouds should be thickening up this afternoon as the next system rolls on in. Looking forward to the warm weather this weekend!

    I like the “Gravatars” Mark.

    I can’t make tomorrows meeting either unfornunately (Would like to hear George Taylor speak).

    Currently 44.1F here with overcast skies

  30. Low of 36° this morning, chilly!

  31. Ben (Tillamook) says:

    Thanks for the update mark

  32. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    I can’t make it to the meeting either, my youngest son has a baseball game. 😦

    So….. when should I put my air conditioner in? Last year I put it in around this time, because wasn’t last year on May 17th a 95 degree day or something like that?

  33. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Can’t make it thursday, first softball game of the season, I hate that they coincide but I did promise to be there at our first game and without me they can’t play, Also going to miss 3 other games this year and the playoffs!!! sux cause I really wanted to hit up the spaghetti factory this year for the meeting, I missed last years as well. ARRGGGHHHHHH.

  34. TVWeatherProducer says:

    I like the pictures….also thanks for the plug Mark !

  35. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    0z GFS does keep the idea of quick cool down (from 80s Sunday to 60s Monday). However, it also warms us back up again by Wednesday.

  36. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Very interesting forecast for sure. It’s early in the season and it seems the GFS will win out in terms of forecast accuracy this time. Though if the ECMWF were to come true, it would seem a much better set up for thunderstorms.

  37. hiophil says:

    1st,

    I’ll be there! Though that probably doesn’t help sell it.

    George Miller knows his stuff so it should be informative.

  38. Masternate says:

    First! HA HA;)

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