A Temporary Dry Spell

A brief post tonight, because once again I got busy with a few other projects.  Plus, there isn't too much to talk about.

1.  2 nice days on the way with much warmer temps.  Decent offshore flow kicks in tomorrow, which should give us a nice 10 degree temperature jump.  Then  the offshore flow looks very strong on Friday.  I see the WRF-GFS has 45 kt easterly wind late Friday evening.  That's unusually strong for May, due to the combo of high pressure to the east and the approaching low to the southwest. 

2.  Saturday's forecast is the only real messy part.  Still some disagreement on how much rain falls and when it starts.  Our 00z RPM only has .02" by 5pm on Saturday.  So it may just be a mostly cloudy day with a few sprinkles.

3.  Early May Soaking:  It sure looks wet early next week.  The GFS keeps showing a very wet west/southwest flow from Sunday through the middle of the week.

Mark Nelsen

32 Responses to A Temporary Dry Spell

  1. “Which confirms, at least for me, that this is simply a distraction from other, more problematic topics…… (wag the dog????)”
    Good one!

  2. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Does May or June have clearer for Portland?
    They are having a arg……..discusssion on it and I can’t get a decent answer as there is too much chaos. 😦
    Can somebody clear it up? (pun not intended)

  3. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Still 58.5F out here due to NE-E winds. IF the easterlies continue to persist overnight I assume temps won’t get below the mid 50’s.
    Ummm onto the Blazers, or should I bother? Well we played good for 12 minutes and then when Houston grabbed the lead you could see our YOUNG Blazers becoming nervous, tentative, and scare. We unraveled quickly losing all of our composure and confidence. Yeah the refs were bad, but it wasn’t the reason why we lost. Oh well….
    Good night.

  4. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Snow rollers? What the heck? (looks confused)

  5. Off topic for PDX…this is Idaho-weather related, Fascinating…snow rollers.

  6. TV Weather Producer says:

    Greetings from the Oregon AMS meeting happening in Tualatin. We’re learning about MJO. The stuff is incredible. Its basically a wave of convection that comes out of the Indian Ocean, moves over India and then into the Pacific. Scientists are still not sure how it affects the weather around these parts, but its clear that it does contribute to the weather. Enjoy the sun everyone !

  7. OOooooops…forgot my temp: got up to a “sweltering” 68.5Β°F (much to my chagrin…as I doubted the forecast (gasp)). πŸ˜‰

  8. You are correct Runrain…… I saw stats on our “normal” flu mortality per year (it’s ~36,000 confirmed deaths). Which confirms, at least for me, that this is simply a distraction from other, more problematic topics…… (wag the dog????)
    Sun broke out late this morning and it warmed up nicely! Absolutely GORGEOUS day today!

  9. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    *Gives himself a tranquilizer shot* I’m okay…
    Posted by: Rob “Wrath” – Elevation 300′ -Far S.E. Portland- | Thursday, April 30, 2009 at 03:12 PM
    (Gets Triforce device ready in case Rob knocks himself out)

  10. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Good then I don’t have to heal you Rob using Triforce power.
    I hate to relate but it’s sixty eight. 68F.
    I hope Friday can pump us past the 70F mark.

  11. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Sorry to hear that about Proffesor Decker. Did he write a book on cloud physics, or was that someone else from Oregon State?

  12. Runrain says:

    Sad about Prof. Decker. Many non-atmospheric science major (such as myself) took his Met 101 class. He had some great time lapse film of building cumulonimbus clouds that he was very proud of back in the 70’s. He will be missed.

  13. …east wind is starting to make it’s appearance here…..

  14. DEL X V says:

    A Sad note. I just learned the Dr. Fred W Decker passed away a couple of weeks ago. Fred was a Professor of Meteorology at Oregon Sate University and taught the science of meterology to many young students over the years. He also was the founder of the Oregon Branch of the American Meteorology Society and an important contributor to other met activities for more than the last 60 years. He will be missed by all his old students and weather associates.

  15. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Maximum surface winds along the Coast look to be in the 2-5 PM time frame for Monday, May 4th as seen here.
    40kts southerly
    Willamette Valley 20kts or so 8 PM May 4th as seen here.

  16. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Ryan (Aloha for those that do not know.)
    I agree with your comments, but I doubt this will be my last Blazer one! It’s just too huge of a game, the situation, the drama… OH YEAH!
    *Gives himself a tranquilizer shot* I’m okay…

  17. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    How much surface wind with that there system?

  18. Runrain says:

    Not “flew” but “flu”.
    Interesting to see that band of high level clouds moving rapidly west to east while the lower cumulus buildups are moving east to west.

  19. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Rob, my feeling, get the Rockets down early and they are cooked. On the other hand, if we get down early, don’t get worried, rockets WILL come out with a LOT of energy, let’s just not get down by 15 in the first and we’ll be in good shape!
    That is my last Blazer comment until they win πŸ™‚ Sorry to go off topic but this really is a HUGE game for the city of Portland.

  20. Runrain says:

    Yes, I heard on the news today that 30,000-35,000 people die every year from the NORMAL flew. Hate to say it but the news media seems to care more about ratings than preventing a panic!

  21. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    A perfect day out there! Currently 62.8F here with a light breeze.
    As our esteemed SP mentioned earlier quite a deep low sweeps up from the southwest.
    [Monday, May 4th – 8:00 PM]
    Looking at the east wind situation. Latest cross section guidance looks a bit weaker, but hey 35kts heading into May is still very impressive.
    I have a few thoughts here.
    The Swine flu albeit serious is no reason to panic and in my opinion minimal concern. The amount of seasonal flu in comparison is overwhelming compared to the few cases of Swine. Also the immediate concern and deaths in Mexico were attributed to a number of things such as poor health systems, poor hygiene, and the poverty level. I firmly believe we will not see anything like what they have. I believe only the very young, elderly, and those with weakened immune systems are at risk. I do think though that we should be more vigilant in washing our hands, watching out for sick people, and DO NOT go to work if you’re sick. Use hand sanitizers, and avoid people whom are coughing and sneezing.
    Onto the Blazers! I am so amped up! So pumped! So stoked! This is it people! I really believe our Blazers are going to come out with tons of energy and effort to put themselves in the best opportunity to win tonight! I can’t wait! Can you? This is it baby!

  22. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Nice afternoon for driving around with the sunroof open today.
    My peas have been doing poorly this spring as well, and it’s not because it’s been too wet. The lettuce and spinach is very happy if being a bit slow on the growth side. My IT guys reccomend using Google Chrome for some of the things we do here.
    12z is very consistant with the 06z GFS in quantity of precip over the next 10 days.

  23. google chrome for the win!!

  24. Runrain says:

    At least this upcoming rain will be a bit “warmer”. This 45 degree rain stuff is getting old. Gardenwise-I notice the voluntary tomatos are starting to pop up in spite of the cool and cloudy weather. Early spring peas have not be too robust. Cukes haven’t even come up yet.

  25. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Couple non weather comments…
    First probably swine flu case reported in Oregon. Just use common sense please all, I hope the best health on all of you if we see anymore cases exposed around here.
    Second, GO BLAZERS! Butterflies in the stomach.
    Back to weather.
    EXCITED for the two days of nice weather, my lawn patching needs some UV Rays!!! The leaves have slowed thier blossoming in the past 4 days, hopefully these couple days will speed up the process, don’t want to see my neighbors behind me anymore, lol.
    Definitely looks wet early next week, we’ll see if the models hold to this idea.

  26. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    WOW! A whopping 6 posts on the blog in the past 12 hours. Must be spring. πŸ™‚
    P.S. On a lighter note — GFS shows a deep low approaching the coast early next week with 850mb winds at almost hurricane force. That is more like late November than early May.

  27. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Yeah, another typical December morning out in Hillsboro. Low 30’s and foggy. Frost on the roofs and ice on the car.
    Ok, a little more daylight than in December…
    10 day forecast has over 3.5″ of rain for Hillsboro starting sometime on Saturday. The raw model output is probably about tripple what will really fall, but that’s a fair amount of rain for May. It will be interesting to see if May will end up an above average rainfall month.

  28. Very frosty morning and 31.4Β°

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I use Internet Explorer for everything and mine works just fine. I never used FireFox. I wonder why people have issues with IE?
    And I hope it doesn’t get too wet next week. Not a good start to May.

  30. thanks for the update mark

  31. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark.
    45kts? heading into May… That’s very unusual. May need to keep an eye on that in terms of a Wind Advisory or so…. I’ll look forward to it.

  32. Scott "Troutdale Oregon" says:


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