Wet Monday Evening

Lightning1 A few lightning strikes across the region today as heavy showers developed over the Cascades and other hilly areas.  Now they've popped up just about everywhere west of the mountains.  At 8pm a batch of very heavy showers are right over the middle of the Metro area.  Please put your rain totals in the comments below this evening if you are getting soaked at home. 

As you can see, as of 8pm there were no cloud-ground strikes in Oregon, only Washington.  Mesoscale models handled the heavy evening showers pretty well too.

Not much change tomorrow as a cold upper-level trough sits right over us.  Several waves of moisture pinwheel around the main system, which means timing of showers tomorrow and Wednesday is going to be very tough.

Medium and long range model solutions are a mess beyond Friday.  The amount of moisture coming in from the west and undercutting an upper level ridge to our north is the debate.  With a bit of ridging (such as the ECMWF), we get a very warm weekend, well into the 70s.  But the GFS has been much wetter.  Since we already had rain in the 7 Day forecast for the weekend, we decided to leave it in until the details become a bit more clear.

Not much else to report…things are still chugging along at the big 'PTV.  We are in the May ratings period right now, which means at any moment Armageddon could hit (breaking news!).  You better be watching!  These periods always raise tensions just a bit because advertising rates a tv station charges are based on the number of viewers watching.  These ratings periods will soon come to an end, or will at least be far less important, as ratings will be collected all year long here in Portland television market beginning late this summer…Mark Nelsen

53 Responses to Wet Monday Evening

  1. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) says:

    Not much clearing today and not much warmth either. If he high of 52 if official for Hillsboro, it ties the old record from 1967. PDX at 54 was five degrees above their record.
    Nice shower here at the moment. Currently 45.9
    GO BLAZERS, YEAH!

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=4
    Is MU CAPE 2000 J/kg? Its hard to see especially since we aren’t zoomed in anymore.

  3. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Salemphill that’s what I thought late last evening but I just wasn’t sure.
    Is there anything that could’ve been done different in terms of forecasting?
    As an amature forecaster these kinds of questions are needed to be asked and hardly anyone does.

  4. SalemPhil 200' says:

    Borring Larry,
    sounds like a very fast growing field to me. Lots of opportunity for sure LOL!!!!
    Tetra force,
    just from my GOLU weather model, I would say that it was the fact we didn’t have any clearing today to fire up the instability.

  5. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Yeah! I am above the quarter inch mark in rainfall. 0.20 hundreths of an inch. I don’t know WHEN the last time I was that high……..I think in late Februaury sometime.
    So where did it all go to pot on the convection forecast anyways? I’m just curious.

  6. …lets see…a weather junkie rehab counselor…..hmmmmm
    Congrats Phil!!!

  7. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Congrats on achievement, Phil.

  8. Mike in Orchards says:

    Congrats SalemPhil!!!…..
    Looks like the shower activity has abated somewhat…..
    Cool 53.7F here currently….light S to SW wind……0.49″ rain total today so far

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