Vacation Time

The weather is still pretty slow this evening…just an approaching cold front that's weakening.  We get a shot of rain in the morning, then some drier afternoon weather.

No changes in the 7 Day forecast over the last 24 hours.  It warms up over the weekend with a strong upper level ridge, then cools down Tuesday.  By the 2nd half of the week a chilly trough is back over us.  Wow, it doesn't get more spring-like on the maps than the next 7 days does it?  Up and down, up and down…

For kicks I looked up the 1956 warm spell maps.  We had two days at/above 80 degrees at PDX, peaking out at 84.  Hillsboro and Forest Grove hit 88 that day.  There was a closed upper level height contour of 576 right over us, with a deep upper low offshore.  A slightly warmer pattern, but not much.  If we were to get decent easterly flow Monday with the forecast +13 to +14 degC 850mb temps, our chart says 85 IS possible but that would be the upper limit.  80 degrees is still a very good forecast high!

I will be off on vacation until Saturday the 25th.  So most likely no new postings until that time.  Everyone behave for the next 9 days!  Mark Nelsen

 

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Monday – LIVE interview with astronauts on the Int'l Space Station! Tune into Fox 12 at 5:45am this Monday to see it live!!! -Rob Martin

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56 Responses to Vacation Time

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    They do seem to be forecasting thunderstorms for Central Oregon. MU CAPE as of now is still 2000 J/kg, and will likely remain high for a while. The latest scan shows MLCAPE at 750 J/kg with SFC CAPE at 750 J/kg as well.
    MU CAPE in Northern California shows 4000 J/kg, isn’t 6000 J/kg the highest? Why all the high numbers here?

  2. Karl Bonner says:

    I hiked Smith Rock early this afternoon in broiling sunshine and 83 degree temperatures. Definitely needed the water and the sunscreen.
    Despite all the heat east of the Cascades, the deciduous trees around Sisters and Redmond were mostly still bare except for blooming plums and a touch of green on the weeping willows.

  3. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Any activity in Bend and/or Sisters Oregon tomorrow?
    I made it to 81.9F today and it’s 62F and clear right now. Looks like another no heater night.
    Can someone let me know when September 21st gets here?

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I just saw that Rob. Interestingly the last time I noticed MUCAPE that high was on June 29 last year. Sucks no storms west of hills will develop.
    I do expect SFC CAPE and MLCAPE values to increase throughout the next several hours, as they had been doing so far…

  5. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Strong MU CAPE upwards of 3000J/kg along the Cascades.
    http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/mucp.gif
    It sure would be neat to see some flashes off to the east/southeast…. Bummer.

  6. Jesse-Orchards says:

    All of this warm weather is nice, but watch out! If models are correct, there could be a damaging late season freeze throughout much of the Northwest by later this week.
    Unfortunately the breaking down of this heat ridge will be from the NW, Timmy. Not a good pattern for thunderstorms.

  7. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    No problem at all. If you have any other questions or need links I am sure myself or numerous others would be happy to help out.

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Thanks for the links! All of this imagery I know have with me will make storm forecasting a lot easier.

  9. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Timmy, welcome to the Blog.
    To monitor instability, CAP, wind shear, ect. try this site.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=3
    It’s a Mesoscale Analysis area for Oregon/California/Nevada.
    As far as monitoring shortwaves and/or vorticity maxima you can do that with any standard IR or WV loop.
    Try these links for that.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
    Looking at WV loop and overall flow I am now thinking there’s a chance we see t-storms near the Cascades tomorrow. This activity will probably be Mt. Jefferson to the Three Sisters area and southward. I’m not sure anything will make it north of Mt. Jefferson up towards Mt. Hood….

  10. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    First 80 degree day of the year here with a high of 83.3, about a week early and about 10 degrees too warm for my taste. A beutiful day just the same and still much better than the 106 I remember in April in Pasadena in the late 80’s YUCK!!

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