A Chilly Night

April 14, 2009

Snapshot Looks like a chilly night on the way tonight.  A very cold airmass is overhead, dewpoints have fallen into the 30s, and skies are partly cloudy to mostly clear.  I drove down to Lamb Elementary in N. Salem for a school visit today and noticed a few peach tree orchards in bloom.  I have a feeling anything lower than 30 would be very bad, so hopefully most spots will just touch the freezing point.  For those of you concerned about freezing, it's good news that we'll only see one night of the really cold temps.  A slightly warmer airmass is over us tomorrow night and then it's on to a cloudy and warmer one Thursday night.

Showers were a bit more intense than I had expected today, but at least we did see plenty of sun inbetween the showers.  Looks like snow briefly stuck down to around 1,000' overnight, but then showers tapered off later in the the night, minimizing any accumulations.

No change to the forecast thinking the next few days.  All models give us some rain as a warm front brushes us Thursday night and Friday.  Then much stronger ridging takes hold for the weekend and early next week.  There is a subtle trend in the 12z ECMWF and now the 00z GFS for a slightly weaker ridge Sunday-Tuesday.  I'll ignore the 18z GFS…it looked almost "hot".  850mb temps on Sunday and Monday on the 00z GFS are still up around +13 to +14, which prompted us to put an 80 degree high in the 7 Day Forecast.

Mark Nelsen