It's been quite a wild weather ride the last 5 days. I took Friday off to do a one-night camping trip near Estacada. That was really cold. I couldn't believe folks were camping in tents when the morning low was 31 degrees out there early Saturday morning. But the temperature jumped almost 30 degrees in 3 days (by Monday), as if we went from February to June over the weekend. A high of 51 sounds brutally cold now. I was pleased with our forecasts for the last few days. When I left Thursday we forecast 60, 70, 75, 68 for Saturday through Monday. Looks like all except today were within 3 degrees. I think this points out how well we've been forecasting "heat waves" the last 5 years. I don't think we've missed a single significant warm up (or summer heat wave) in a long time. Models seem to do quite well with the 850mb temp forecasting, which leaves the meteorologists to deal with local terrain effects and other factors that affect the final high temp down here at the surface. Some day we'll get just as good with the ending of ice and snow storms, but I'll be an old man (maybe 50-60) by then.
Short term, a nice surge of marine air is taking over tonight. I see low clouds have arrived at Eugene already. Our model and the WRF-GFS show a thick push that seems to get broken up by the much cooler air arriving in the upper atmosphere tomorrow. That's why they show skies turning partly cloudy. Our 60 degree forecast accounts for this. Otherwise a strong push in early April would make me think more like 55 degrees for a high.
I don't have any other deep thoughts for the next 7 days or so. Looks pretty typical, actually a bit on the cool side, through the period. I did get a chance to plant carrots, spinach and lettuce. The garden is now going…slowly…Mark Nelsen