End of Ratings

Snapshot  Last night (Wednesday) marked the end of our ratings period.  Normally we don't take time off during the periods when Nielsen collects demographic info about who is watching our station.  Generally those are the months of November, February, May.  I don't think I've taken time off in those three months for 10-15 years.  However due to the expected change to digital TV in February, that period was moved to March.  Of course we all know what happened; Congress extended the deadline to mid June.  So now that the "book" has ended, I'm going to take tomorrow off.  And, due to the forecast, I'm taking Monday off now as well!  Seems appropriate so I can get outside and enjoy the June-like temps on the way.

No changes in thinking tonight.  GFS has come even closer to the ECMWF, delaying the arrival of energy from the southwest until at least midweek.  This appears to be a classic "warm" spring setup of a split flow being slow to let moisture back in here.  The models are playing catch up a bit.  This means a heck of a nice period of sunshine and unusually warm temps for early April.  Easterly flow kicks in Saturday, but the atmosphere is pretty chilly, so 60 is the best we'll get.  Strong easterly flow Sunday may keep some spots in the 60s, but I have a feeling plenty of us will make it to 70.

To me Monday sure appears to have the signature of a "surprise" warm day.  Easterly flow dies down during the day while 850mb temps soar up to 10-14 deg.  That gives 75-80 degrees at PDX according to my reliable (and freshly updated!) forecast chart.  Of course that's REALLY hard to believe after a long period of high temps around 50 degrees.  That's why the chart is so helpful in these situations…it's very objective.

Enjoy the warmer weather…Mark Nelsen

88 Responses to End of Ratings

  1. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    GPS = No more crummy maps!

  2. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I don’t know Rob, I would say navigator is spot on.
    I’ve always been the navigator on road trips.

  3. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    58.8F now… The cooler weather regime has begun…. Blah.

  4. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I’ve seen your pic before, Jesse. You didn’t strike me as a navigator per say, maybe more of the technician type. Well that could just be me.
    Back to WX….
    It is still 60.4F here with a brisk S-SW breeze making it feel chilly. For the first time in a long time I am able to say that.

  5. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Tetraforce, nice of you to include me in one of your scenarios. As a navigator of all things! πŸ˜€
    I would hope I’d be able to tell the Earth and Venus apart though. :p

  6. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Tetra, in simple terms it is a measure of instability in the atmosphere. The higher the # value the stronger the instability. Lifted index works the same way but with negative values.
    As of the 8:25 PM SPC Thermodynamic Fields the instability has decreased over the past hour, but is still fairly decent. Looking at MU CAPE/LPL Heights I see some indications that some very weak elevated convection is trying to develop over the northern Oregon Coast Range. I really expect nothing to come from this. The bulk of the instability is shifted eastward as the upper low and its dynamics move inland into California.

  7. Hmmm….looks like a nice band of precip moving north out of Medford…. Will be very interesting to see if it holds together and/or gives us anything fun to listen to tonight….. (I guess if I can’t have any more snow, I’ll have to “wish” for T-storms!)

  8. Mike from Orchards says:

    Hope the Mariner’s learn you don’t walk the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th inning with a 2-run lead….
    Cooling off 64.8F…..light south wind….pressure rising at 29.70″

  9. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    What does 500jk mean in layman’s terms Rob and what does a lift index of -1 mean?

  10. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    6:27 PM SPC Thermodynamic fields are even more impressive.
    [ML CAPE]:
    500J/kg Northern Willamette Valley/KVUO metro area
    250J/kg Central Willamette Valley
    [MU CAPE]:
    2000J/kg PDX/KVUO metro areas/eastward into the western Gorge and northern Oregon Cascades
    1000J/kg Willamette Valley/Cascades
    [Lifted Index]:
    -1 PDX/KVUO metro areas
    Too bad we can’t get some lift up this way.
    Blazers look atrocious at best against Memphis tonight. There is still time to pull this game out, but we do not look like a playoff team. It is as if we knew we had clinched the playoff spot then went out and laid an egg versus Houston and now it seems Memphis as well. Unacceptable…..
    Back to weather… A nice comfortable evening out there.

  11. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    Saint Peter at the gates of Heaven:
    “I’m sorry Jesse but you’ll have to start all over and do the mission right this time so go collect those fossils on Planet Zebes!”

  12. TetraforceofTime also The destroyer of bad-boys says:

    I’m only going to post when something is intresting cause people love to chew on me thinking I am a chew-toy if I question anybody.
    For some reason it’s clouding up like a system is coming in. I had a high in the mid-60s which is 63F now.
    My higest high was 74F or so with my lowest low of 30F before this April “heat storm”.
    *Fox 12 Spaceship after re-entry in our Solar System slowing down from warp speed*
    Me: ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Navigator. Are you sure we are heading towards Earth? It’s getting a bit warm in here.
    Navigator Jesse at the ‘wheel’:
    Of course I am sure! Why wouldn’t I be? Your just feeling the Global Warming that’s all πŸ˜›
    *looks out window* “WAIT! THAT’S NOT EARTH IT’S VENUS!” *Speaks into radio* Come in NASA, MAY DAY! SOS! HELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLP!
    *Ship catches fire and exlodes into a huge ball of flames*
    Spirit form:
    “Well Jesse you were kinda close Venus is Earth’s sister you know. At least you had the right idea.”
    Jesus: (sighs)

  13. Mike from Orchards says:

    This pattern has repeated itself several times so far this early season…….Could make for an interesting mid-late spring (especially this summer) if it keeps up…
    Warm, somewhat muggy 72.8F here currently….

  14. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    I know, Jesse! Had to get back by Sunday though, so was stressing on that. I’ll have to do it again when I have two weeks off together, that way I can do it more leisurely. It was nice to see the country, though, for sure!

  15. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    For our region it is a t-storm pattern.
    4:27 PM SPC Thermodynamic fields
    ML CAPES a few spots of 100-250J/kg in the Willamette Valley
    MU CAPES: 500-1000J/kg Willamette Valley/Central and northern Oregon Cascades.
    LI: 0 to -1 Willamette Valley

  16. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Sounds like a cool trip tornado Aly.
    You should have stopped for a day and let at least one of those storms catch up with you! :p

  17. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I’m not sure if this would even be a good t-storm setup in the summer.
    Best dynamics are too far south, upper flow isn’t favorable(not S-SErly)and a marine push will cool temps at the surface later this evening.
    Anyway, a nice sunny first half of the day. Clouding up and 74 now, after a high of 75. Humidity has climbed as well. Looks like we can say goodbye to the 70s for awhile. Hope to see them again in May!

  18. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Thanks, Rob! It was a good trip. Santa does like snow.

  19. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Aly, welcome home! And you too Sean!
    I think Santa likes snow.

  20. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Hey, everyone! Just got back from a road trip, went to Nashville Tennessee and back. Unfortunately, we missed all storms by a day, including the tornado that touched down in Nashville (yep, left the day before). On the way there we were following a storm, with another storm following us, leaving us dry and sunshine the whole way. The only thing I got to see was the edge of the snowstorm in Wyoming Saturday night into Sunday. We only got 5 inches of snow where I was in Western Wyoming, whereas Cheyenne Wyoming (which we went through just before the storm hit) got like 16 inches. It was unbelievable to me to come back here in Vancouver to the warmest temps I have seen the whole week!
    Anyway, not sure of the thunderstorm chances here tonight, but the baro is dropping. It would be nice to see some action!

  21. Santa says:

    So no snow wishcasting…..

  22. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Okay this grabbed my attention.
    SPC has our region under a Mesoscale Analysis box area. Accordingly due to good surface heating and 500mb temps -20c MU CAPES have developed.
    100-500J/kg Willamette Valley.
    500-1000J/kg North/Central Oregon Cascades
    LI is becoming favorable
    Lapse rates are marginally favorable
    IR Loop seems to show some diffluent flow aloft, but as time wears on the flow will progressively shift to the SSW pushing any convective activity over and east of the Cascades. At this time it looks like the bulk of the energy/lift will be well south of our area, but it is worth keeping an eye on. It is exciting to see a Summer time t-storm pattern in April.

  23. Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

    Well, I’m making my first return trip to Oregon this evening (flying into PDX and then driving down to Grants Pass). Hopefully it will be warmer than it has been here! Woke up to snow falling and temps around 32F yesterday, and then we had a morning low of 28 this morning. So, hopefully the weather will stay at least mild during my few days that I’m back in the Pac NW.. πŸ™‚

  24. vernonia1 says:

    In Long Beach,WA for a few days. No temp info….but the pool is great πŸ™‚ Sunny, warm, light wind & hoping for more tomorrow

  25. Mike from Orchards says:

    Nice, warm 74.3Β°…….light, variable wind

  26. Ben Randall (tillamook city) says:

    75 degrees in tillamook

  27. Ian *Longview* says:

    man its nice out, but i have to ask…
    did EVERYONE BBQ yesterday? our block alone had 4 different BBQ’s going yesterday at once. very fun, tons of kids running around, footballs being thrown around, and good music.
    today we have that thin sharp line of high clouds filtering out the sun a bit…look on vis. sat. its kinda cool looking. but i want that unfiltered sunshine back. feels a lot warmer.

  28. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Leaves? What are leaves?…oh yeah…those green things that hang on trees, now I remember them…it’s been awhile.
    75 in Hillsboro right now. It was very nice when I went outside for some fresh air.

  29. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    75.7F !

  30. Antipex (Cupertino, CA) says:

    81 degrees here with high clouds streaming in… the NWS is calling for 56 tomorrow. That’d be quite a temperature swing! At least it will look like summer outside since all the trees have leaves now.

  31. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    73.0 πŸ™‚

  32. stevied (North Portland) says:

    lovin’ this weather!

  33. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Very nice day coming up, currently a chilly 34.9 out side.

  34. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Seventy Degrees
    The banana tree asks, Please
    may I go outside?
    73.0 for a high, first of the year. 33.7 for a low, certainly not a first or the last in the 30’s this year I suspect.

  35. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    Ahhhh, looks like it hit 71 here at my house … first 70+ day of the year here! Was out in wine country doing some tastings … what a day for it!

  36. hi chuckyd. thankfully, my relatives in windsor were not affected. my cousin took this video while the tornado passed through but it isn’t much too look at 😦


  37. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    67.8F here. East wind is slowly backing off now which is allowing temps to max out more efficiently as the mixing effect is lessening.

  38. I have oregon scientific wmr200. It is an awesome product and have never had any problems with it. My dad also bought the same one seeing that I never had a problem with mine. I also spent 70 more dollars and got the online version which is uploaded to wunderground every 2 seconds, same with my parents. Only bad thing is the program VWS is not stable, but 95% of the time works the way it should! But i love my weather station.
    http://www.weatherconnection.com/product.asp?itmky=489559&s=froogle

  39. Mike-Mult Villige now in Ft. Collins, CO says:

    Jason,
    I have been using Oregon Scientific products. I find they work well when the batteries are kept fresh and there is a proper line of sight between the transmitter and receiver. I have not jumped into a full weather station ala what you see on wunderground. My big concern has always been for proper measurement, ie locating the station, shelter issues etc. I am satisfied to measure temps only and really only trust the “min” temps. I do believe there is a lot of value in measuring precip though as the local topography creates quite a bit of variation. I did need to purchase a set of screwdrivers from radio shack as the Oregon Scientific products have very small size phillips screws.

  40. Dr. J in The Couv says:

    Hey weather ballers – in this more “down time” with weather, I am looking for some advice … My Weather Channel wireless weather sensor has finally died after 5 years (at least the sensor transmitter part), and I want to get a new one. Any leads on what might be a better one to get, with the goals of: (1) Having a nice strong transmitter; (2) Looking good and sleek in the house; and (3) Easily readable (it also serves as a nice clock in the room we put it); and (4) Perhaps having a cool extra feature or two (without being too expensive).
    Thanks for any leads…
    Jason

  41. Jesse-Camas says:

    Got down to 38 this morning once the wind died off.
    Sitting at 53 right now, with gusty east winds picking back up.

  42. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    [Surface gradients]
    As of 10 PM——| +/- Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -5.0mb | 0.8mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -4.7mb | 0.5mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -7.3mb | 0.2mb Decrease
    PDX-GEG: -7.8mb | 0.3mb Increase

  43. Mike from Orchards says:

    Nice, warm 54.8F currently…..East wind gusts to 26mph….Tonights low will probably be higher than most “highs” the past several weeks….

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