Last night (Wednesday) marked the end of our ratings period. Normally we don't take time off during the periods when Nielsen collects demographic info about who is watching our station. Generally those are the months of November, February, May. I don't think I've taken time off in those three months for 10-15 years. However due to the expected change to digital TV in February, that period was moved to March. Of course we all know what happened; Congress extended the deadline to mid June. So now that the "book" has ended, I'm going to take tomorrow off. And, due to the forecast, I'm taking Monday off now as well! Seems appropriate so I can get outside and enjoy the June-like temps on the way.
No changes in thinking tonight. GFS has come even closer to the ECMWF, delaying the arrival of energy from the southwest until at least midweek. This appears to be a classic "warm" spring setup of a split flow being slow to let moisture back in here. The models are playing catch up a bit. This means a heck of a nice period of sunshine and unusually warm temps for early April. Easterly flow kicks in Saturday, but the atmosphere is pretty chilly, so 60 is the best we'll get. Strong easterly flow Sunday may keep some spots in the 60s, but I have a feeling plenty of us will make it to 70.
To me Monday sure appears to have the signature of a "surprise" warm day. Easterly flow dies down during the day while 850mb temps soar up to 10-14 deg. That gives 75-80 degrees at PDX according to my reliable (and freshly updated!) forecast chart. Of course that's REALLY hard to believe after a long period of high temps around 50 degrees. That's why the chart is so helpful in these situations…it's very objective.
Enjoy the warmer weather…Mark Nelsen