Finally! Some Spring on the Way

April 1, 2009

I got pretty busy tonight staring at tons of numbers.  My April 850mb "magic chart" that I like to use in the warm season is the last that hasn't been updated since 2000.  So that involves looking up lots of numbers and putting them into a spreadsheet.    Anyway, that didn't leave time for anything else.  So here's a brief synopsis:

1.  A real juicy cold front comes through the next few hours.  Radar is all lit up with heavy precip. to the west…should be a soaker tonight.

2.  GFS has definitely moved into agreement with the ECMWF on the weekend/early next week pattern.  A deep upper-level low moves towards the California coastline, pushing a warm airmass up over us.  Now the GFS has 850mb temps peaking out around +10 C Sunday afternoon.  The ECMWF was exactly the same, and continued the warmth through Monday.  Those temps plus easterly wind in April could push us to 75-78 degrees according to the numbers I was working on tonight for the chart.  Hard to believe since we've been so cold.  Drew and I went somewhat conservative with temps, holding Sunday's high to 70 degrees.  Most likely we'll go warmer in tomorrow's 7 Day…probably for Monday too.  Get ready for some REAL spring weather Saturday through Monday, maybe a bit beyond!

Mark Nelsen