Sunny, Then Wet Ahead

Mt Hood From Upper Bowl 1  Since we have some sunshine and I couldn't find a decent picture, I pulled this one out of the "archives".  That means I have a directory with a bunch of viewer pictures in between on the junk on my PC desktop.  Technically that's a Meredith Corporation PC, not mine, but you get the idea.

Hans Wipper, operations manager up at Mt. Hood Skibowl took this picture in late September 2007 from the top of Upper Bowl.   Notice how little snow is on the mountain that time of year.  Maybe I'm just wishing for some sunny and warm weather…I am.

Up until 9pm I was getting worried about the chance for clearing tonight.  Low level drier air is arriving through the Gorge right now, evidenced by Stephanie Kralevich's wind blown hair (still looked good though!) in the 10pm FedEx story.  She was standing out there in Troutdale.  So no chance for fog or low clouds developing overnight.  The cloud deck over us now is up around 6,000' or so and now it appears to be thinning from the south on the IR satellite loop.  So I DO feel we'll be clear by daybreak.

Easy forecast tomorrow through Friday…sunshine!  It'll be slow to warm up with a very chilly modified arctic airmass east of the Cascades, but even so I think we'll make it to at least 60 degrees Friday.

The weekend?  Very Wet!  The 12z/18z/00z GFS have consistently shown a trough coming through Saturday, quickly followed by the next large trough sitting offshore.  That sets up a mild southwesterly wet flow.  The 12 and 18z were wet, but the 00z goes nuts with a flood-producing pineapple-express bullseye of 11" rainfall in the next 7 days!  We'll see about that, but either way I have a feeling Saturday through Tuesday is going to be a mild soaker.  In fact I'm so confident that I bought some paint this evening to paint the ceiling in the living room this weekend…it'll be an indoor (and wild!) weekend at the Nelsen home…Mark Nelsen

44 Responses to Sunny, Then Wet Ahead

  1. boring larry (not at home) says:

    ~~~~~~~~FLAB 5 ALERT~~~~~~~
    …ok folks, we’ve tested, and tested, rode it hard put it away wet, and tested again, we are proud to announce the flab5 chat room is open, and will stay open!!!!!
    there’s two options, the main room, where folks play nice, and the sandbox, where you can argue till the cows come home…!

  2. Here are my 32° or below temps since October:
    October….4
    November…4
    December…20
    January….21
    February…17
    March……6 so far as of 3.11.09
    TOTAL days of 32° or below so far is 72

  3. Mike from Orchards says:

    Some weather stats from here; days of freezing or below: (APRS station ID DW0677 and WU KWAVAN058)
    October….0
    November…1
    December…13
    January….20
    February…15
    March……2 so far…
    TOTAL days of 32.5F or below so far is 51…….This is usually a warmer spot than most areas of the county….
    Currently 45.9F….TD 26.3…light ESE wind

  4. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    I was wrong it was the day after. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/2008/11/11/MonthlyHistory.html
    Look on the 6-7th but I’ll probably be ignored anyways for being curious.

  5. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    It was actually early to mid November and Seattle had a 24hr total of 2.16″ at SEA and the day before had .99″
    Is this a similar setup up in anyway?

  6. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    This whole March is unusual. I don’t think we have a “usual” anymore.
    I have an idea. I wonder if this storm coming up has the same setup as mid-november 2008?
    During that the storm track went up to Western Washington giving Seattle small urban stream flooding but I can’t remember actual amounts.
    If it does then we may end up getting it this time.

  7. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    The PDX area missed the brunt of the arctic air for sure.
    Currently it is 49 here with a DP of 28. Some drier air in here though, and I bet tonight we head for the low-mid 20s. In the last 14 years I have not recorded a temperature lower than 24.8 in all of March.

  8. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Looks like Hillsboro tied its record low of 25 today from 1969. My weather station had 25.6 when I left home, but that was well before sun-up so the low was most likely colder. As I was riding through Beaverton this morning, the water in the ditches was frozen over. Unusual for March imho.

  9. TV Weather Producer says:

    If you can make it tomorrow, I highly suggest you come to the AMS meeting. Its going to be very informative !

  10. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    The second “E” that is.
    Low of 28.0F here this morning and 45F now.

  11. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    We are on the letter “e” on overdue for a good soaker storm.

  12. Ian *Longview* says:

    this was oficially longviews 56th freeze this AM.
    though looking back, there were 15 33’s. ha.
    wierd..after looking at a personal weather station closer to home…we had 66 freezes. and only 12 33’s.

  13. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    * WEATHER ALERT *
    Calling all weather nerds, calling all weather nerds! Hope to see you all at the AMS meeting at the Ch 12 studios tomorrow night at 7pm, for an entertaining look back at Winter 2008/2009 and all that it had to offer.
    For complete details see — http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/OR-AMS_meeting_March12-2009.pdf
    Steve Pierce
    AMS Executive Councilor

  14. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    I checked some other places in NE Oregon
    Seneca -4.4
    Ukiah 2.5
    Wallowa 6
    Joseph 7.5
    Enterprise 8.6

  15. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Some unbelievable record lows for this time of year east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington
    Statement as of 11:11 am PDT on March 11, 2009
    … New daily record low temperatures for March 11th…
    Note: stations marked with * indicate that the station reports once
    per day. For consistency… these values are considered to have
    occurred on the day the observation was taken but may have actually
    occurred (especially for Max temperature) on the previous day.
    Station previous new records
    record/year record began
    *la grande(city), or 12 / 1956 11 1948
    *long creek, or 11 / 1969 6 1957
    Meacham, or 7 / 2006 -11 1948 :since mid
    *moro, or 18 / 1950 18 (tied) 1928
    *pendleton(city), or 20 / 1985 19 1890
    *pendleton(es), or 20 / 1958 19 1956
    Redmond, or 11 / 1956 10 1949 :since mid
    *satus pass, WA 19 / 1967 15 1956
    *whitman mission, WA 22 / 2006 19 1962
    Statement as of 11:07 am PDT on March 11, 2009
    … Record low minimum temperatures reported for March 11th…
    records
    station new record old record year kept since
    Plummer 1 25 1991 1948
    Chelan 15 18 1969 1890
    Pomeroy 12 tied 12 1956 1891
    Ritzville 12 16 1950 1899
    *spokane int 2 7 1950 1881
    Lewiston 15 18 1956 1881
    Wenatchee 16 19 1969 1959
    … Record low maximum temperatures reported for March 10th…
    records
    station new record old record year kept since
    Coeur D Alene 23 28 1950 1895
    Plummer 29 34 2000 1948
    Chelan 36 tied 36 1962 1890
    Porthill 22 tied 22 1921 1892
    Pomeroy 27 33 1950 1891
    Ritzville 27 32 1962 1899
    Spokane int 21 26 1950 1881
    * – lowest minimum temperature ever this late

  16. Bob says:

    Soooo… No snow on the valley floor this weekend ???

  17. JohnD says:

    Thanks Guys for the freeze information!

  18. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Anybody see the -11 at Meacham this morning? Deer Park, Wa hit -9 and Spokane hit 1

  19. Low of 26.1°, currently fog & low clouds and 29.6°

  20. Mike from Orchards says:

    Low of 28.1F here……Looking like its going to be a nice day….

  21. Jesse-Orchards says:

    My bad, it was freeze #48.
    By the way, thanks for the shout out last night about the record cold in Edmonton, Mark!

  22. Jesse-Orchards says:

    JohnD, this morning was freeze #47 of the season for PDX.
    Got down to 25.4 this morning at my house. Nice to see that even PDX made 20s.
    Spokane made it down to an impressive 1 this morning. That is the lowest temperature they have ever seen this late in the season.
    A couple other really impressive numbers that stand out to me this morning are a low of -9 in Deer Park, WA and a low of -11 in Meacham, OR. Both records, and both also latest known occurences of such low temps.

  23. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    John D,
    I have Hillsboro data through today. I’m sure it’s above average by a bunch. If I have time I’ll try to see how this compares to my 2002-2008 station data.
    HIO
    Nov, 6
    Dec, 19
    Jan, 21
    Feb, 23
    March, 6
    Total, 75
    My station, 72
    From the look of the current models, it looks like we are going to have to wait a bit longer for our first 70 degree day. Typically that occurs around the mid point of March in Hillsboro.

  24. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Personally I want some sunny and 60 degree days so I can start getting out to hike. I’m not against hiking in the rain but a lot of trails get dangerous enough when wet that I prefer it dry.
    Unfortunately, it appears the Shamrock Run is going to be a moist one this year.

  25. JohnD says:

    Anybody know what the average number of days for Portland with 32′ or below minimums?
    And how many have we had so far this year?
    Thanks!

  26. SnowFlake (Tigard/Bull Mtn) says:

    Wow!! What a gorgeous day at the Mountain….
    http://www.fsvisimages.com/moho2/moho2.html

  27. Kirk says:

    I wish we could just fast forward to July 5th.

  28. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …clear, 30.0 degres, with s little east wind…
    …small world dept.: Hans is my next door neighbor!

  29. Ben Randall (tillamook city) says:

    flooding noooooooo In 1996 we got 15inches of water inside our house

  30. Annie in Vancouver says:

    It’s very foggy here, can’t see more than 100 yards. I’m in a little low land pocket here, and am right next to a marshy area and a small forest so I get fog when almost everyone else is clear sometimes. But I thought we were going to remain clear, no fog. Do others have any fog?
    It’s a chilly 25.5* here and it’s quite beautiful with everything being coated in white 🙂 I am looking so forward to the sun for a few days!

  31. Captain Convergence Zone ie: Josh the Snowman, From, Everett, WA says:

    Hmm, based on what I’m seeing I don’t think we will quite get on the warm “enough” side of the jet to really get some serious melting, but I could be wrong.
    Looks like snow levels maxing out around 6000′ or so, but fluctuating. Could be some localized flooding but I just don’t see this being a classic setup. Little too westerly by the looks of things.

  32. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Late Sunday into Monday look very wet on the GFS. I thought we might make a run at 70 next week based on Monday’s model runs. So much for that thought!
    If the models continue to show this much moisture with all of the warm air, some flooding is likely to result.

  33. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    I’m down to 31 a beautiful clear night.

  34. Ben in Forest Grove says:

    Clear here in the Grove. 28.5 already.

  35. Annie in Vancouver says:

    I am also excited for a good soaker! We are way past due!

  36. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    Know you are not alone Joe. I am looking forward to it too. I love just aboe all sorts of weather.

  37. g says:

    your weird

  38. Joe Francona says:

    Ok, I said “rear rainmakers.” I just wanted to be the first person to point that out.

  39. Joe Francona says:

    Forget snow, the real rarity this winter, excluding early January, has been rainfall. Who is real excited about the potential for some rear rainmakers? I am, though I may be alone.

  40. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Ya it is clearing out nicely here in the mid-valley. 34 degrees.

  41. Heisson Rob (750') says:

    You know how to live, Mark!!!

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