A sad evening…I realize that when I come back in on Monday all the weather maps and data will be showing up one hour later. Of course that's due to Daylight Saving Time. UTC or "World" time doesn't change, but here in the USA we have this bright idea that twice a year we should change our clocks. Of course that's only 4 months of the year nowdays, and it is nice to get most of the 00z data in by 9pm. Starting Monday it'll be 10pm. I just think the whole shifting time thing is really dumb.
We have lots of weather to talk about this evening. Clear skies right now aren't going to last long. A cold front is approaching quickly from the northwest. This is the leading edge of a much colder airmass coming down the British Columbia coastline. The front itself isn't going to produce much precipitation and then there is going to be a break in the morning hours behind it. I have a feeling that sunbreaks the first part of the day combined with a +2 lifted index in the afternoon along with much colder air arriving up above means some convection. We could see active showers tomorrow afternoon…maybe some hail or a rumble of thunder?
The real fun stuff is tomorrow night through midday Monday. Still looks plenty cold for sticking snow anytime late Saturday night through early Monday. So how much moisture arrives at the right time? I notice 00z models are a bit drier again. Our RPM and the WRF-GFS from the UW are not impressive if you want more than an 1" of snow in the lowest elevations. I also notice that the chance for significant precipitation seems to end Sunday evening. Not much other than light showers or flurries through Monday morning. In fact our model is dry midday-afternoon Monday as the big cold trough begins to head east. So the two graphics here are my forecast for the weekend. The time period is Saturday night through Monday. My gut feeling is that we will all see some white, and probably mostly Sunday morning. If you want 2" or more, you probably need to be up around 1,000' or so to capture the heavier showers as snow Saturday evening and Sunday midday-afternoon to get that total.
My favorite part of the forecast maps isn't this weekend or early next week…it's next Thursday and beyond. ECMWF and now the 00z GFS agree on a pattern change with the first ridging of the season showing up over the interior West the 2nd half of the week. It's finally going to feel like Spring by Wednesday or Thursday! Mark Nelsen