Snowmageddon ’09 Wrap Up

It has been a really long day for me…I left the house around 8am and was in Keizer by 9:30 for the first of two school visits.  Then I've done all the shows tonight.  Is anyone crying for me yet?  I didn't think so, but I'm just a bit tired so a brief post tonight.

I'm pretty happy with the way the forecast turned out.  Models were right on with light amounts of moisture overnight.  We had .14" at PDX from 10pm last night to 4pm today.  But Salem got .48" at the airport; about 1/2 of that falling as sticking snow.  The higher elevations on the south side of the city and west hills had accumulations in the 2-4" range, so you see what some extra precipitation COULD have done up here.  Except for Forest Grove, which got around 2" in the lowest spots, it looks like all other low elevations in the Metro area had zero to 1".

One thing I didn't anticipate was the end of the showers and sudden clearing that moved in around daybreak.  It was early enough that temps dropped to near/below freezing out in the Tualatin Valley and northern Clark County, freezing the water on the roads.  I thought it was stay cloudier until midday.

Not much to talk about on the maps tonight…just milder southerly flow developing over the weekend in the upper atmosphere.  Easterly wind returns through the Gorge both Saturday and Sunday, but it shouldn't be too chilly this time with no inversion setting up eastside.  Models seem to want to mix us out nicely on Sunday for warmer temps…in the 55-60 degree range.

That's all for now, I have the day off tomorrow so the next post won't be until Monday…Mark Nelsen

160 Responses to Snowmageddon ’09 Wrap Up

  1. Sandman - Aloha says:

    Every body sing……….
    It’s beginning to look alot like Christmass………..
    Or……I’m dreaming of a white March……………..
    Don’t worry about the buds if this materials, they will be insulated with snow. ๐Ÿ™‚

  2. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Ask and you shall receive —-
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009030300!!/
    The 0z GEM, GFS and Euro are all in 95% agreement now.
    Target day – Sunday!
    SP

  3. cb711 says:

    how about the weather in Eugene on Sunday? same as Portland?

  4. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    My guess would be temps 30-37F snow 3-5″

  5. Joe Francona says:

    If it turns out like the GFS has been saying, what would the outcome be? Any record lows? Anyone want to make a forecast? I think everyone is afraid to call this because it would just be so dang unusual.

  6. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    0z Canadian is out now and is also liking the idea of a blast from the north right about hour 144 which would be Sunday. I see 500mb heights to below 528dm and 1000mb thicknesses to 520dm or so. Burrrrr! The Euro will be telling. 40 min and counting.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/can00z2.html
    SP

  7. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Is it just me or has tonight’s MM5 run just died (stopped loading) at hour 58?
    SP

  8. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    If the core of the pink/brown colors somehow made some momentum southward it could be a historic blast yep…

  9. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/extendedgfsinit.html
    As far as tomorrow goes the air mass looks colder especially upper levels. 500mb temps down to -32c compared to -27c today. If we manage sun breaks hail/t-storm seem quite possible tomorrow.

  10. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Wait until you all see the 00z WRF-GFS extended run…
    WOW….

  11. Austin-Out in Ridgefield says:

    Its like my grandpappy used to say……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… lol
    Temp:41.8
    DP:39
    Wind:3MPH W

  12. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Steve is a weather god! Steve is a weather geek! ๐Ÿ™‚
    It won’t really matter if what the GFS is saying (for the past 2 days) comes true this weekend. We will all be looking a little more “white” this weekend.
    The 0z GFS continues the trend of an arctic frontal passage (let’s call it seepage for now) and overnight snowfall on Saturday night and into most of the day on Sunday. Followed by bitterly cold air (for this time of the year) through Wednesday of the next week. lows well below freezing. Incredibly low 500mb heights and 1000mb thickness values (for this time of the year) that are the most impressive I have seen this late in the year since,,,,, uhhhh,,, dare I say March 1951? PDX had 7 1/2″ of snow on March 7th 1951 alone, for a grand total of 13″ for that entire month. Could this be another March 1951 spring blossom killer? Nothing says it can not happen. Especially after this last December’s record breaking event. Now let’s hope the Euro goes full on “forecasm” tonight. We need more than just the GFS to call for the March Madness Blast ’09!
    More details later this week if the trends continue! But right now the GFS is going hog wild on one of the coldest March systems I can remember in my lifetime.
    Stay tuned!
    SP

  13. Mike from Orchards says:

    Well thats really nice…I missed this “large shower” in Vancouver today (had personal stuff to do)….I also did not have my GRLevel 3 software running at the time..:-(………If we can keep this type of pattern going, we might see plenty of active showers around this spring…..
    45.7F…..calm….

  14. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    I didn’t say Steve was wrong. Your seeing things. ๐Ÿ˜›

  15. !#@ says:

    you’re a troll

  16. Tetraforce (2009-2010 The 1949-50 snow year equailvent) says:

    And Mark is always right. ๐Ÿ™‚

  17. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …that would be the confused home with a cold forum…..

  18. boydo3, N. Albany 500' says:

    I still haven’t seen the ecmwf line up with the GFS cold in the extended period. It shows a high positioning itself over the west coast and shunting the cold to the east of us(again). But I sure hope the GFS is right cuz that means some mean skiing!

  19. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    ..oops…wrong forum….

  20. stevied (North Portland) says:

    At this point Rod Hill is the only one touching the snow possibilities:
    http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/fishwebftp/KATU/10day_test_full.JPG
    NWS hinting at Sunday possibilities in their long-range in their afternoon discussion:
    A COLD LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE SUN TO SUN NIGHT TIMEFRAME. OVERALL WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SHOWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRI…THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW
    LEVELS BY SUN.

  21. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Heavy shower possibly an isolated t-storm west of Woodland just south of I-5.

  22. Nice spring day. Last nights rain done by daylight and has been partly sunny all day. Had a high of 62ยฐ, currently 58.9ยฐ

  23. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Wahoo…props on the 4 PM news.
    Looks like things mostly clear out until at least sunset before more showers move in from the system moving off of the coast.

  24. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Radar REALLY exploded southeast of Scappoose!
    http://i44.tinypic.com/qoinmh.png
    also I just had heavy pea-sized hail with a cell that rapidly developed near Gresham.

  25. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Heavy shower over and west of Vancouver. Perhaps an isolated t-storm mixed in.
    http://i43.tinypic.com/255kyet.png

Snowmageddon ’09 Wrap Up

It has been a really long day for me…I left the house around 8am and was in Keizer by 9:30 for the first of two school visits.  Then I've done all the shows tonight.  Is anyone crying for me yet?  I didn't think so, but I'm just a bit tired so a brief post tonight.

I'm pretty happy with the way the forecast turned out.  Models were right on with light amounts of moisture overnight.  We had .14" at PDX from 10pm last night to 4pm today.  But Salem got .48" at the airport; about 1/2 of that falling as sticking snow.  The higher elevations on the south side of the city and west hills had accumulations in the 2-4" range, so you see what some extra precipitation COULD have done up here.  Except for Forest Grove, which got around 2" in the lowest spots, it looks like all other low elevations in the Metro area had zero to 1".

One thing I didn't anticipate was the end of the showers and sudden clearing that moved in around daybreak.  It was early enough that temps dropped to near/below freezing out in the Tualatin Valley and northern Clark County, freezing the water on the roads.  I thought it was stay cloudier until midday.

Not much to talk about on the maps tonight…just milder southerly flow developing over the weekend in the upper atmosphere.  Easterly wind returns through the Gorge both Saturday and Sunday, but it shouldn't be too chilly this time with no inversion setting up eastside.  Models seem to want to mix us out nicely on Sunday for warmer temps…in the 55-60 degree range.

That's all for now, I have the day off tomorrow so the next post won't be until Monday…Mark Nelsen

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