ECMWF, ECMWF, ECMWF

February 17, 2009

Snapshot As all of us who watch the weather closely know…it's been a very dry month so far.  And now California has been getting a soaking in this split-flow pattern.  Take a look at the numbers:  SFO has had about 10 times the rainfall Portland has seen.  Even LAX has beat us handily.  They are going to dry out the next few days as the Pacific Northwest get's it's first taste of Spring. 

Skies have cleared out this evening, which should lead to some morning fog.  Luckily we're getting towards the time of year where all-day long fog becomes unlikely.  The strengthening late February sunshine should punch through quickly in the morning and push our highs into the mid 50s by afternoon.  Then on Thursday and Friday upper level heights build over us in advance of a deepening low offshore.  Later in the spring this pattern would really warm us up.  This time of year 65 degrees is about the maximum I could see Friday or Saturday.  East wind returns Thursday through Saturday and that may temper the "heat" possibility.  I bet PDX makes it to 62-63 one of those days, but for today I'll leave it at 60.

ONCE AGAIN, the 00z GFS has made a swing towards drier and split flow this weekend and beyond.  Maybe more important is the fact that it looks more like the ECMWF did earlier today.  Seems to be a pretty common occurrence over the last month or so.  The ECMWF has been doing a much better job staying with drier flow and higher heights.  Exhibit A: Has anyone out there noticed that the GFS has had some sort of snowy or cold weather pattern around 200-360 hours for the last 4 weeks???  That would be 4 runs a day times 28 days…hmmm, we've probably seen about 100 runs of the GFS in the last 4 weeks that showed "the big pattern change" coming up.  My point is the ECMWF is doing a much better job.

In the short term, I'm looking forward to our first taste of spring the 2nd half of this week.  Remember that in 2005 we started a 3 week stretch about now that included many days 55-65 degrees.  That culminated with 4 days in the lower 70s in the first week or so of March.  THAT was real sweet.  Mark Nelsen

REMINDER FROM STEVE PIERCE…AMS COUNCILOR —

OREGON AMS MEETING THIS WEDNESDAY AT 6:30PM IN PORTLAND!

Hope to see you all this Wednesday at the "Mid-Winter Weather Sampler." This is an open AMS meeting / gathering with no formal agenda. The floor is open and anyone can present on any weather related topic. Yes, there could even be talk of the next cold wave that could be headed for the Pacific Northwest. This month's meeting is being held at the ever popular Stark Street Pizza Company in Portland. I can personally attest to their great pizza and warm atmosphere. This meeting is open to all ages! Please spread the word.

We hope to see you all there TOMORROW at 6:30pm!

Here is a link to the official meeting flier as well as a map with driving directions —

http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/meetings.html


ECMWF, ECMWF, ECMWF

February 17, 2009

Snapshot As all of us who watch the weather closely know…it's been a very dry month so far.  And now California has been getting a soaking in this split-flow pattern.  Take a look at the numbers:  SFO has had about 10 times the rainfall Portland has seen.  Even LAX has beat us handily.  They are going to dry out the next few days as the Pacific Northwest get's it's first taste of Spring. 

Skies have cleared out this evening, which should lead to some morning fog.  Luckily we're getting towards the time of year where all-day long fog becomes unlikely.  The strengthening late February sunshine should punch through quickly in the morning and push our highs into the mid 50s by afternoon.  Then on Thursday and Friday upper level heights build over us in advance of a deepening low offshore.  Later in the spring this pattern would really warm us up.  This time of year 65 degrees is about the maximum I could see Friday or Saturday.  East wind returns Thursday through Saturday and that may temper the "heat" possibility.  I bet PDX makes it to 62-63 one of those days, but for today I'll leave it at 60.

ONCE AGAIN, the 00z GFS has made a swing towards drier and split flow this weekend and beyond.  Maybe more important is the fact that it looks more like the ECMWF did earlier today.  Seems to be a pretty common occurrence over the last month or so.  The ECMWF has been doing a much better job staying with drier flow and higher heights.  Exhibit A: Has anyone out there noticed that the GFS has had some sort of snowy or cold weather pattern around 200-360 hours for the last 4 weeks???  That would be 4 runs a day times 28 days…hmmm, we've probably seen about 100 runs of the GFS in the last 4 weeks that showed "the big pattern change" coming up.  My point is the ECMWF is doing a much better job.

In the short term, I'm looking forward to our first taste of spring the 2nd half of this week.  Remember that in 2005 we started a 3 week stretch about now that included many days 55-65 degrees.  That culminated with 4 days in the lower 70s in the first week or so of March.  THAT was real sweet.  Mark Nelsen

REMINDER FROM STEVE PIERCE…AMS COUNCILOR —

OREGON AMS MEETING THIS WEDNESDAY AT 6:30PM IN PORTLAND!

Hope to see you all this Wednesday at the "Mid-Winter Weather Sampler." This is an open AMS meeting / gathering with no formal agenda. The floor is open and anyone can present on any weather related topic. Yes, there could even be talk of the next cold wave that could be headed for the Pacific Northwest. This month's meeting is being held at the ever popular Stark Street Pizza Company in Portland. I can personally attest to their great pizza and warm atmosphere. This meeting is open to all ages! Please spread the word.

We hope to see you all there TOMORROW at 6:30pm!

Here is a link to the official meeting flier as well as a map with driving directions —

http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/meetings.html


ECMWF, ECMWF, ECMWF

February 17, 2009

Snapshot As all of us who watch the weather closely know…it's been a very dry month so far.  And now California has been getting a soaking in this split-flow pattern.  Take a look at the numbers:  SFO has had about 10 times the rainfall Portland has seen.  Even LAX has beat us handily.  They are going to dry out the next few days as the Pacific Northwest get's it's first taste of Spring. 

Skies have cleared out this evening, which should lead to some morning fog.  Luckily we're getting towards the time of year where all-day long fog becomes unlikely.  The strengthening late February sunshine should punch through quickly in the morning and push our highs into the mid 50s by afternoon.  Then on Thursday and Friday upper level heights build over us in advance of a deepening low offshore.  Later in the spring this pattern would really warm us up.  This time of year 65 degrees is about the maximum I could see Friday or Saturday.  East wind returns Thursday through Saturday and that may temper the "heat" possibility.  I bet PDX makes it to 62-63 one of those days, but for today I'll leave it at 60.

ONCE AGAIN, the 00z GFS has made a swing towards drier and split flow this weekend and beyond.  Maybe more important is the fact that it looks more like the ECMWF did earlier today.  Seems to be a pretty common occurrence over the last month or so.  The ECMWF has been doing a much better job staying with drier flow and higher heights.  Exhibit A: Has anyone out there noticed that the GFS has had some sort of snowy or cold weather pattern around 200-360 hours for the last 4 weeks???  That would be 4 runs a day times 28 days…hmmm, we've probably seen about 100 runs of the GFS in the last 4 weeks that showed "the big pattern change" coming up.  My point is the ECMWF is doing a much better job.

In the short term, I'm looking forward to our first taste of spring the 2nd half of this week.  Remember that in 2005 we started a 3 week stretch about now that included many days 55-65 degrees.  That culminated with 4 days in the lower 70s in the first week or so of March.  THAT was real sweet.  Mark Nelsen

REMINDER FROM STEVE PIERCE…AMS COUNCILOR —

OREGON AMS MEETING THIS WEDNESDAY AT 6:30PM IN PORTLAND!

Hope to see you all this Wednesday at the "Mid-Winter Weather Sampler." This is an open AMS meeting / gathering with no formal agenda. The floor is open and anyone can present on any weather related topic. Yes, there could even be talk of the next cold wave that could be headed for the Pacific Northwest. This month's meeting is being held at the ever popular Stark Street Pizza Company in Portland. I can personally attest to their great pizza and warm atmosphere. This meeting is open to all ages! Please spread the word.

We hope to see you all there TOMORROW at 6:30pm!

Here is a link to the official meeting flier as well as a map with driving directions —

http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/meetings.html