Check out these numbers…we've only had 2/3rds of our average rainfall so far this rainy season. I made this graphic because there doesn't appear to be any change in sight on the long range maps. The Pacific Northwest will be under a strong split in the jet stream once again for next calendar week starting Sunday. A quick glance at the 00z GFS confirms no significant changes in that thinking. In general the deep upper trough off the West Coast seems to elongate and shift slightly farther offshore later next week. That's why I warmed up temps to a bit above average in the 7 Day forecast. The 00z has significantly higher heights now during that period. It's only one run, but 564dm heights with offshore flow in the 2nd half of February could get us to or above 60 degrees here in Portland. I'll leave the temps a bit cooler until the ECMWF shows something similar.
One thing is clear…there is no good chance for low elevation snow in the next week or so. And obviously no big cold blast either. I think I'm going to take my studs off early next week. Um, you know what I mean, the ones on the car. I can deal with a few inches of wet snow, but the chance of a prolonged ice/snow storm is disappearing quickly…Mark Nelsen