A Messy Forecast

February 5, 2009

No pretty picture tonight.  In fact the weather is still REALLY slow so there isn't too much to talk about.

We're having trouble even getting showers this evening!  Some showers have been moving north along the Coast Range, but no measurable has fallen here in the Metro area.  It's a product of a continuing split flow along the West Coast.

I'm not real impressed with model forecasts for next week.  I think the best chance for us to see snowflakes at the lowest elevations is Monday…IF there is moisture left over for showers.  Drew and I both noticed the 18z GFS didn't even have precipitation at all for Monday!  Too much splitting and stretching of the incoming upper-level trough means not a lot of precipitation.

Models have been in decent agreement on a juicy system for Tuesday.  I like the continuing trend of a triple point along an occluded front coming in pretty far to the south, very similar to what we saw with the big snowstorm in December.  Of course there's no arctic air over us Tuesday, but as moderate-heavy precip arrives, wind flow is light easterly.  This MIGHT be a setup for a Forest Grove effect or Woodland-Longview snow…maybe.  It's definitely something to keep an eye on since the snow level is going to start out quite close to the surface.

Beyond Tuesday is a mess.   The ECMWF was a bit ridgy again at 12z, and now the 00z GFS has totally destroyed hopes of some Valentine's Day excitement.  The models giveth and the models taketh away…Mark Nelsen

A note to those of you commenting on Tuesday:  I thought I've mentioned this before, but please refrain from discussing politics on this blog.  It's a weather blog, and of course global warming is part of weather.  But many times today in the comments, the postings veered well into conspiracy theories and accusations against certain groups.  The comment on the previous post is a prime example.  Discuss data and research and stick to that please.