A great set up for widespread dense fog in the lowest elevations of western Oregon again tonight. Light wind, low level moisture, and cooling air, plus a long January night. I think the fog will lift a bit more quickly tomorrow afternoon due to a weakening cold front approaching from the west. That should stir up the airmass slightly.
Speaking of that front, it looks incredibly weak moisture-wise as it moves in tomorrow night. Our RPM models gives us all of a trace of precipitation through Sunday. So I have a feeling the majority of us will stay dry.
The 7 Day forecast looks REALLY dead with either ridging or split flow through the end of next week. By the end of next week, we will have gone through our 4th work week with little to no precipitation! That length of time with no significant precipitation is pretty rare in the dead of winter. At least you'll be able to jump like crazy in the sunshine out on the beaches again next week. This picture was sent to us from Tim Maronay. He was out at Warrenton a couple weeks ago. During the windstorm here in the metro area, he escaped to the much calmer and warmer coastline.
I have a day off tomorrow, then I'll be back on Monday. Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
Hey Wrath…I couldn’t agree more!!
Borring Larry, That is a very good question. I work at home and obviously love the idea lol!
Sure seems to be cooling down fast out there. Today was beautiful, I was even able to open the house up for a brief period 🙂
Scott…the nice thing about statistics is that, in theory, they are objective. Looking at one pattern and saying “this looks like the pattern from 53 days ago” is more subjective…especially when you already know what you want to see. That being said…just because the LRC theory didn’t hit this one does not prove that the theory has no value.
..if track can be kept of milage driven, then why cant we have insurance by the mile…..
Chucky,
I’ve heard of discussion of it for maybe a year now. Not sure of the exact details, but I think the theory is that with hybrids and high mileage cars, the state is losing gas tax revenue so they were looking at charging for actual vehicle miles traveled. Not sure if you then get a credit for gas taxes paid.
The problem is it requires a GPS unit in your car, which theoretically gives the government a way of tracking your movement, not to mention possibly the way you drive. Very easy to figure out you were going 80 for a while on I205 say. Even though they say the units wouldn’t have that info, I for one don’t trust the government (yes I know your employer), no matter which party is in charge.
Maybe I’m getting this wrong. If so, someone will set me strait I’m sure.
Chucky, I also heard that with this bill there is something in the works to implant every car with GPS device to find out how many miles a person drives, where they are driving to ect. to determine mileage, ect. personally find that to be complete b.s. and an extreme invasion of privacy.
Back to weather…. 50.2
Chucky, I also heard that with this bill there is something in the works to implant every car with GPS device to find out how many miles a person drives, where they are driving to ect. to determine mileage, ect. personally find that to be complete b.s. and an extreme invasion of privacy.
Back to weather…. 50.2
LRC Buster – it is clear you have not looked at our site for some of your questions. As far as the stats you refer to, yes..clearly those examples and other more complex tests are being done.
Brian – great question. I take for granted people know what I mean by “active” pattern. We have defined the cycle this year as ~ 51-53 days. That said, the active pattern would be similar to December. In our Winter Forecast this was part of what we described…
“During the cold season the Canada ridge will tend to retrogress to off near the west coast of Canada and extending to off the California coast. It will likely try to close off upper level highs this winter a few times. When this happens we will likely see brutally cold Arctic air masses develop over central and western Canada. This will likely block up the flow over North America and lead to long stretches of cold weather across the United States. During predictable parts of the pattern this ridge will likely develop and help create some stormy set-ups across the United States.”
In addition, here is the image of what we describe as the dominant storm tracks…
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/7995/wintersplitfloweb4.jpg
The full forecast can be found here with the full analysis:
http://www.lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=50:winter-forecast-2008-2009&catid=18:forecast&Itemid=33
If you look at that storm image, you might find similarities in the 18z GFS at 120 hrs. Likely more frames as we get closer…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_120l.gif
Just ask with any more questions…
Chucky – We are thinking about that one. I would love to, but also think it prudent to have it all together before mass consumption. It appears that anything qualitative isn’t going to work for folks. I think we may have a few regressions we can show, but not sure how much further we will go until it is all done. As you can imagine, this is an interesting process and if straight correlation tests were enough to see it, it would have been discovered already.
Regression and correlation tests are nice, but really just make statistical suggestions. We believe additional scrutiny and tests are needed to give a higher level of confidence. That is what we are working on right now.
I expect to have a bit more documented this year in maybe some of the AMS stuff Gary is working on, but may have it all ready for some of the planned AMS events for next year.
Research and documentation comes with a premium. After documenting the LRC, we should work on how to develop a money tree! LOL
Chucky…The mileage tax idea has been around before. Maybe we could discuss it over a few drinks?
Got to admit Rob, that deep of a low might be too much even for me….lol
Sorry Aloha. I thought this was a different chatroom.
Chris…
Thanks. I am a smooth one, that’s for sure.
haha
To anyone reading…
Has anyone heard of this “mileage tax” that Oregon is considering? If so, how long has this idea been around. I was just heard about it on Fox News…which is the first I’ve heard of such a thing. Just curious to know if this is a new thing, or if it’s been around the block once or twice.
Mike (Orchard), Now that’s what I’m talking about. A nice 115-130mph wind storm.
ChuckyD81…you’re so kind and gentle.
ChuckyD81…you’re so kind and gentle.
Ummmmm…no we don’t.
943mb….a deep one that is!…….we just need one inside of 140W and north of 35N traveling in a NNE direction!!!
Nice 51F here………still looks to me like we’re on track for below normal rainfall this winter
Scott Metsker…
I’m not getting involved on either side of your conversation with “LRC Buster”…but are you guys going to publish any preliminary results from the typical research side of things?
I’m just curious. No hidden meaning here.
It’s peaked. It was possibly 941-943mb at peak strength. Satellite imagery shows the low has occluded now. It is projected to weaken to roughly 953mb over the next 18-24 hours.
It’s peaked. It was possibly 941-943mb at peak strength. Satellite imagery shows the low has occluded now. It is projected to weaken to roughly 953mb over the next 18-24 hours.
943mb !
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.gif
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/other/WVCMP.GIF
Can’t wait for Mark to be back tonight to straighten some things out!
50 degrees, calm winds and sunshine…it feels like spring out there today. I see lots of bulbs coming up and even some blossoms on trees (close to buildings).
Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter!!!
The same people who are always making cracks about Crackuweather” are the same ones who are glued to their computer screen at the IPS Meteostar website forecasts. THEY ARE THE SAME THING!!
Raw GFS data with no human input. If you have to put down Accuweather, put down Meteostar as well.
Yikes….I forgot to specify that it’s calling for snow on MOnday, the 16th…
😦 Oh well. I expect spring/summer to be much colder then average based on gut feeling cause mother nature always balances herself out one way or another even if we blow-torch it this winter.
We will probably have a green tomato year…..whatever that means.
18z says goodbye winter, hello drought…
We have been hearing about a pattern change about 10 to 12 days out now for over a month. It appears the models that were so good in December have shown how weak they truly are with longer term prediction for some time now.
We have been hearing about a pattern change about 10 to 12 days out now for over a month. It appears the models that were so good in December have shown how weak they truly are with longer term prediction for some time now.
Scott, how do you define “active”?
Active for the PNW can range from arctic outbreaks, “pineapple expresses”, to zonal flow (more typical). Neither the pineapple express pattern or the zonal flow pattern is like the December pattern we just had. In fact, in a normal winter, the zonal flow is pretty much the default, and that can have either a westerly, NW or SW flow for temps that will be either normal or slightly below (above) normal.
Scott, how do you define “active”?
Active for the PNW can range from arctic outbreaks, “pineapple expresses”, to zonal flow (more typical). Neither the pineapple express pattern or the zonal flow pattern is like the December pattern we just had. In fact, in a normal winter, the zonal flow is pretty much the default, and that can have either a westerly, NW or SW flow for temps that will be either normal or slightly below (above) normal.
What math or tests are you talking about? Where are the correlation coefficients…statistics…anything? If we do switch to an active pattern sometime in February it will tell us nothing about the LRC as a forecasting tool. How many quiet January’s are not followed by active February’s here in the Pacific Northwest.
LRC Buster – Ha..lol. Don’t forget wooly worms and tea leaves.
So, as the models and other deemed credible sources begin/continue to promote the active pattern, what will you have left to hang on to? Given, one forecast is not any proof, but continued success in forecasts using the LRC is hard to ignore. I don’t imply that it is enough for scientific acceptance, but certainly for the average bear it is something to consider as plausible.
The math is underway [and preliminary tests are very positive]..and when ready, perhaps that will be enough for the harshest critics.
Heck, a groundhog can sense it, it must be real. LOL
Wendy,
For Portland, Salem, etc., there is no sign of snow on accuweather. Are you still seeing it? Maybe it’s for Washington?