A Brief Post

I'm ashamed to admit I forgot to post this evening, and I really want to get out of here right after the weathercast.  So it'll be a short post.

In general, I don't see any changes from last night's thinking, except that most models are pretty dry for Sunday.  Now our RPM model we get here in the station indicates .30"!  It shows an organized wave moving down the coastline on Sunday morning.  I don't really see any other model showing that, so let's assume it's out to lunch.  We have leaned our forecast towards dry, but turning windy and chilly Sunday.  So the numbers on the 7 Day forecast haven't changed.  It is going to be a very brief cold snap.  The cold air gets wiped out of here quickly on Tuesday as a front moves in with low pressure up to the north.  A decent southerly flow up the valley warms us well above freezing that day.

Not much else going on beyond Tuesday either…Mark

157 Responses to A Brief Post

  1. Erica says:

    I was wondering and im pretty sure about my hunch, i think that we have got more snow than rain this winter! am i right guys? are we still in Oregon??? i have lived here all my life and i dont remember anything like this. let me know what you guys think.

  2. Temp 40 DP 28, Light snow falling now.

  3. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Sunshine here & 30. Went out to the car & it is all “bumpy”. Musta rained at some point :0)

  4. cap - Hood River says:

    Snowing in Hood River

  5. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    It looks like some of us are seeing light snow/mixed precip, I might of seen some last night but I am not sure the ground is wet and the temp is 32.5, hopefully we will get some tomorrow or Monday.

  6. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Hope the radar comes back up soon

  7. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    A few very light snow flurries here the past 5 minutes.
    [Surface gradients]
    As of 8 AM——-| +/- Hourly Change
    AST-DLS: -5.7mb | 0.2mb Increase
    PDX-DLS: -4.2mb | No Change
    TTD-DLS: -4.4mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    PDX-GEG: -2.3mb | 0.3mb Decrease
    OTH-GEG: -1.3mb | 0.6mb Decrease

  8. Rob "Wrath" - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    A few very light snow flurries here the past 5 minutes.
    [Surface gradients]
    As of 8 AM——-| +/- Hourly Change
    AST-DLS: -5.7mb | 0.2mb Increase
    PDX-DLS: -4.2mb | No Change
    TTD-DLS: -4.4mb | 0.1mb Decrease
    PDX-GEG: -2.3mb | 0.3mb Decrease
    OTH-GEG: -1.3mb | 0.6mb Decrease

  9. DON TROUTDALE says:

    We has a sleet/snow shower here in troutdale some of the grass is white. 32F calm winds

  10. Kirk ( 7miles North of Washougal ) says:

    Well the great La La Land flip flop is still going. BACK TO COLD 06z gfs. Might be the coldest yet in the long term. Meaning Feb 8th and 9th. Ya I know 360 hours away. What ever . πŸ™‚

  11. Aloha Rainshadow (Formerly Luvry in Aloha) says:

    Thanks Yev, no, I’m not saying you’ll see anything on the models tomorrow but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an operational run (the gfs everyone looks at) to show some sort of arctic outbreak past hour 300.
    Typically that wouldn’t mean anything but after the 1st of february, there could be a target on our back from mother nature at one point or another.
    Having said that…a lot has looked in place for the end of January and that isn’t going to pan out, so I also wouldn’t be surprised to see nothing for the next few days…
    Remember, when I’m talking about “a lot in place for a point in time”…I’m looking at big outbreaks of cold and snow…little one day shots of flurries, or rain/snow mixed, etc…not talking about those.
    I’m going to bed, night all.

  12. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    rainshadow you need to post more man πŸ™‚
    so you are saying basically tommorow we should be getting some more hints of another arctic outbreak?

  13. Fenrir says:

    Well, some sleet mixed with really tiny snowflakes fell here a bit ago (Beaverton). Dunno if it’s still going.

  14. Fenrir says:

    Well, some sleet mixed with really tiny snowflakes fell here a bit ago (Beaverton). Dunno if it’s still going.

  15. Aloha Rainshadow (Formerly Luvry in Aloha) says:

    LADIES, GENTLEMAN…\
    Don’t give up hope yet. The Ao is suppose to CRASH later this month into early February. The lower, the better…more arctic air gets dislodged out of the north pole.
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
    PNA is suppose to go negative for a good run after the next couple days…this is always good for us, especially if you combine that with a negative AO.
    PNA:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html
    The MJO wave should be more favorable to ridging in the E Pac by February first.
    Enesmbles are showing some markably cold members by the 5/6/7 of February.
    There are a lot of things pointing to a first/second week of February chance of arctic cold. Just keep your fingers crossed those indices hold true to forecast.
    Hope everyone enjoys thier weekend!!!!
    PS, I really don’t see anything happening this weekend, I hope I eat crow but that’s how I see it now.
    This is a pretty weak “event” if you can call it that coming up this weekend considering I had a 21.9 low last week and I doubt i get anywhere near that this weekend!

  16. Aloha Rainshadow (Formerly Luvry in Aloha) says:

    LADIES, GENTLEMAN…\
    Don’t give up hope yet. The Ao is suppose to CRASH later this month into early February. The lower, the better…more arctic air gets dislodged out of the north pole.
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
    PNA is suppose to go negative for a good run after the next couple days…this is always good for us, especially if you combine that with a negative AO.
    PNA:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html
    The MJO wave should be more favorable to ridging in the E Pac by February first.
    Enesmbles are showing some markably cold members by the 5/6/7 of February.
    There are a lot of things pointing to a first/second week of February chance of arctic cold. Just keep your fingers crossed those indices hold true to forecast.
    Hope everyone enjoys thier weekend!!!!
    PS, I really don’t see anything happening this weekend, I hope I eat crow but that’s how I see it now.
    This is a pretty weak “event” if you can call it that coming up this weekend considering I had a 21.9 low last week and I doubt i get anywhere near that this weekend!

  17. Tetraforce says:

    Here is a snippet from Western Weather that basically describes this month.
    “January was basically a blowtorch for the PNW…aside from the horrible inversion.
    I hope February is completely different!”
    Anthony
    I agree 100%

  18. Tetraforce says:

    wait a minute…
    stephanieK’s “futurecast” shows the cold front moving through cowlitz county way before PDX.
    do we change over earlier and thus have a better shot at a decent amount of snow?
    or is the moisture gonna slide south with the front?
    meaning as the temp drops so does the moisture?
    we start and stop snowing early and pdx switches over later and snows later….
    it seems whenever we switch to snow, were first. which is fun till the misture slides south and we watch PDX news coverage of you getting dumped on and were dry.
    😦
    Posted by: Ian *Longview* | Friday, January 23, 2009 at 10:39 PM
    Same here Ian.

  19. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    I had a few sprinkles earlier tonight.

  20. Ian *Longview* says:

    i love mark, but scott sistek up north knows how to write up a forecast:
    ———————–
    Puget Sound Weather Outlook
    Updated Friday 4:25 p.m.
    If you’re heading someplace sunny this week, don’t be surprise if you see a Puget Sound foghorn relaxing on the beach next to you. (Just hope they don’t order a drink, they can be pretty loud)
    After a solid week of non-stop work, they’re eager for some time off, and it looks like once we get into the weekend, they can finally have some down time. In its place will be some colder, drier air so while the fog should lift, it’s not like the temperatures are going to go zooming up.
    Tonight will be more of the same, with patchy fog forming overnight. We’re starting to get a trickle of some arctic air through Bellingham, which isn’t really cold yet, but is drier and should eat up the inversion and widespread dense fog. Lows will drop to around 30, although mid 20s in Bellingham.
    Saturday will start with some patchy fog, but should burn away to some sunshine by late morning. However, clouds will increase a bit in the afternoon as a weak system passes by to our west offshore. Temperatures will top out near 40 in the early afternoon, but will start dropping during the rest of the afternoon into the 30s. An increasing north wind will also finally kill off our inversion and improve our air quality. Looks like the burn ban is tentatively scheduled to end at noon on Saturday.
    This is the system that had been bringing hints of light snow in the forecast earlier this week, but latest forecast models are coming into agreement and are really unimpressed with the moisture content. It will draw some colder air in from B.C. to get us cold enough to snow, but the system is so weak and moving in far enough south that from Seattle north to the border, we’re expecting to stay dry through the night. For areas south of Seattle, just some snow flurries that might get you a dusting to maybe 1″ in the higher Cascade foothills south of Pierce County. But really not much of a big deal. Nothing that I would cancel any weekend plans over.
    What you will likely notice more is the colder air moving in from the north Saturday night. Winds near Bellingham will gust to around 40 mph, but more like 20-25 mph for the rest of us. Overnight lows Saturday night will drop into the upper 20s/near 30. Again, a few flurries south of Seattle, but mainly dry and partly cloudy from Seattle north.
    Sunday will see a few lingering flurries south, but otherwise, clearing to partly to mostly sunny skies. Roads could be bit icy in the morning, especially anywhere you had overnight moisture, so be aware. Temperatures will remain chilly with highs only reaching the mid 30s with that blustery north wind making it feel in the 20s. Actually, aside from the wind chill, that’s not too much colder than it’s been in the Seattle-Tacoma area this week in the fog. But those of you basking in the 50s and 60s along the coast and in the foothills, the cool down will be quite drastic.
    Sunday night will be clear and cold with lows ranging from the teens in the outlying areas to mid 20s in the city.
    Monday’s looking like a gorgeous day for sightseeing, with nearly crystal clear skies and little to no lingering smog as this weekend will kick all the stuck gunk out of here. Just bundle up — it’ll still be cold with highs in the upper 30s and lows Monday morning in the 20s.
    We’ll start to moderate a bit on Tuesday as the arctic air moves off to the east and the north wind dies off. As for skies, it’ll be partly sunny skies and highs clawing back into the low 40s.
    A weak system then moves back in late Tuesday. Depending on timing, this could briefly begin as some wet snow, but a quick change to rain is expected, and actually odds are quite high it’ll just be rain through and through. Long range forecasts then trend us toward a more normal winter pattern (what’s that?) of occasional light to moderate rain and highs in the mid 40s, with snow levels around 1,500-2,500 feet and bringing some new snow to the mountains.
    Skiers, just watch for those snowboarding fog horns, they tend to be a bit awkward πŸ™‚
    Have a great weekend!
    Scott Sistek
    KOMONews.Com Meteorologist
    ——————————
    im south of seattle. im execting to wake up to 2″ now.
    kidding…night all. too drunk to post anymore.

  21. Ian *Longview* says:

    oh. and get this…
    Tulsa, OK: hi: 73 low: 21
    WOW. i thought 25-55 was a big temp swing. i need to move..lol

  22. Ian *Longview* says:

    oh. and get this…
    Tulsa, OK: hi: 73 low: 21
    WOW. i thought 25-55 was a big temp swing. i need to move..lol

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