Rainy and Warm Night Ahead

Snapshot  Now I'm really annoyed.  This is the 2nd time for this post.  I got all the way to my name, hit the post button, but apparently clicked something else on the keyboard at the same time.  Poof!  The post was gone.  But at least it's still mostly in my head.  Check out those wind gusts on Mt. Hood today!  Drew Jackson mentioned that parts of all 3 ski areas were closed today.  Rain plus strong wind isn't fun and those gusts of 50-100 mph aren't the best for the ski lifts either.  The 129 mph gust was at the top of the Magic Mile chairlift.

The melt continues in the hills today…I'm down to just spots of snow in the woods and the shoveled areas at home after a night in the 40s.  The lawn looks REALLY flat after having 5"+ snow on it for 3 weeks!

The big message that hopefully I'm getting across is that most of the Pineapple Express is heading into Washington this time around.  Heavy and flooding rains fall from tonight through Thursday morning in Southwest Washington, but I don't expect heavy rain here in most of Northwest Oregon until tomorrow evening.  The firehose is mainly aimed just to our north.  I'm assuming that the main reason for the Flood Watch from Portland south is due to already high rivers that will rise back to flood stage easily.

The Nehalem river already has a flood warning this evening.  It is forecast to rise to 26', which would be the 2nd highest on record after 1996.  Now last week the forecast was way off, by about 9' as the rainfall cut off quickly.  This week though, heavy rain combined with quite a bit more melting snowfall may push it much higher.  It'll be an interesting one to watch.

There is NO weather to discuss beyond Thursday.  The well-advertised big ridge sits over us from Friday through at least late next week.  It's not in a position to get strong surface high pressure east of the Cascades (at least initially), so fog is going to be a big issue with the very wet ground and little wind.  This time of the year we can stay fogged in all day, so forecasting high temps on the 7 Day forecast is challenging…Mark Nelsen

359 Responses to Rainy and Warm Night Ahead

  1. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    On the news it says hwy 6 is closed…but it is not posted on tripcheck yet

  2. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    On the news it says hwy 6 is closed…but it is not posted on tripcheck yet

  3. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    On the news it says hwy 6 is closed…but it is not posted on tripcheck yet

  4. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    The monsson is here & natch my gutters are overflowing! Dang, I wish i had a taller ladder!!! Looks like Niagara Falls out there

  5. Annie in Vancouver says:

    New post from Mark!!

  6. Annie in Vancouver says:

    New post from Mark!!

  7. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Second Low looks to be more wind then rain right now

  8. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Second Low looks to be more wind then rain right now

  9. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Second Low looks to be more wind then rain right now

  10. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Second Low looks to be more wind then rain right now

  11. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    29.71 in (falling)

  12. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Lights are flickering, pouring down rain, winds blowing hard. What a night. What is this about a second low? Does that mean more rain or more wind or both.

  13. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Lights are flickering, pouring down rain, winds blowing hard. What a night. What is this about a second low? Does that mean more rain or more wind or both.

  14. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Lights are flickering, pouring down rain, winds blowing hard. What a night. What is this about a second low? Does that mean more rain or more wind or both.

  15. Clackamas KK says:

    Ugh…it’s really blowing we had gust just a few minutes that made the cedars collide. It’s like it’s blowing in different directions at the same time.

  16. SnowFreak(Eastern-Portland) says:

    54.4 degrees out there! I had a South wind gust of 45mph.

  17. Tetraforce (The hidden fourth piece of The Triforce says:

    Wrath: I can’t really tell exactly where the front is, but if I had to guess, I’d say it looks very close to the coastline. If it is indeed still quite a ways out as you suggest, does that mean it is much stronger than we are seeing now? Is there any other way to tell exactly where the front is (e.g. wind direction)?
    Posted by: Silverton 500 | Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 09:34 PM
    Self asked.
    So the storm hasn’t even came ashore and we’re getting these strong of winds already? Once it comes ashore, then the winds get even stronger right? Yikes, this is going to be one nerve-raking night.
    Posted by: lisa | Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 09:48 PM
    Thanks for asking my question too.
    52.3F out and by the water tower their is 2 large tree branches down.
    So far a peak gust of 30mph that was around 9:00PM or so, sure hope I get something in the 40mph+ range.
    Posted by: Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200′ | Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 09:51 PM
    Sounds bout right for here.

  18. Tetraforce (The hidden fourth piece of The Triforce says:

    Wrath: I can’t really tell exactly where the front is, but if I had to guess, I’d say it looks very close to the coastline. If it is indeed still quite a ways out as you suggest, does that mean it is much stronger than we are seeing now? Is there any other way to tell exactly where the front is (e.g. wind direction)?
    Posted by: Silverton 500 | Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 09:34 PM
    Self asked.
    So the storm hasn’t even came ashore and we’re getting these strong of winds already? Once it comes ashore, then the winds get even stronger right? Yikes, this is going to be one nerve-raking night.
    Posted by: lisa | Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 09:48 PM
    Thanks for asking my question too.
    52.3F out and by the water tower their is 2 large tree branches down.
    So far a peak gust of 30mph that was around 9:00PM or so, sure hope I get something in the 40mph+ range.
    Posted by: Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200′ | Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 09:51 PM
    Sounds bout right for here.

  19. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    It seems reasonable, yep….
    Something we need to keep an eye on….
    Looks like from the fun is beginning.

  20. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Second Low is forming off Washington coast. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12
    Winds should/could increase more then . Anyone agree?

  21. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    Second Low is forming off Washington coast. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12
    Winds should/could increase more then . Anyone agree?

  22. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    As of 10 PM observations both PDX and Troutdale are exceeding 40mph now…..
    Good possibility of stronger gusts localized.

  23. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Sounds like some impressive gusts surfacing, and yep good mixing out ahead of the cold front is the culprit because the gradients are not eye-opening.

  24. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    I have added no rain to my rain gauge since that little downpour we had much earlier.

  25. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    I have added no rain to my rain gauge since that little downpour we had much earlier.

  26. Clackamas KK says:

    I’m thinking of getting my kiddos out of bed because it’s starting to blow hard here in Clackamas.

  27. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    So far a peak gust of 30mph that was around 9:00PM or so, sure hope I get something in the 40mph+ range.

  28. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    So far a peak gust of 30mph that was around 9:00PM or so, sure hope I get something in the 40mph+ range.

  29. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    Flurball-I have been noticing the same.

  30. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    Flurball-I have been noticing the same.

  31. stevied (North Portland) says:

    My basketball hoop just blew over and fell down outside! That’s NEVER happened before, and I’ve had it for 8 years.

  32. Flurball says:

    Ever so slightly my wind in Clackamas is turning varying from SW to SE instead of due S. Still just as strong though and maybe more mixing going on to lower levels? Out on the deck with a hard to keep lit cigar with the sound of limbs craking in the distance.

  33. Flurball says:

    Ever so slightly my wind in Clackamas is turning varying from SW to SE instead of due S. Still just as strong though and maybe more mixing going on to lower levels? Out on the deck with a hard to keep lit cigar with the sound of limbs craking in the distance.

  34. lisa says:

    So the storm hasn’t even came ashore and we’re getting these strong of winds already? Once it comes ashore, then the winds get even stronger right? Yikes, this is going to be one nerve-raking night.

  35. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Temps appear to be rising somewhat.
    I’m up to 54.9f

  36. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?fronts-ir
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    I’d put the cold front roughly about 150miles offshore.

  37. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?fronts-ir
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
    I’d put the cold front roughly about 150miles offshore.

  38. Jet Stream Jethro / Molalla says:

    Here’s a link to the photos J-Kelso was referring to: http://www.tdn.com/shared-content/gallery/?galleryid=6&gallery_page=0&album_page=1&albumid=59&mediaid=2168

  39. Jet Stream Jethro / Molalla says:

    Here’s a link to the photos J-Kelso was referring to: http://www.tdn.com/shared-content/gallery/?galleryid=6&gallery_page=0&album_page=1&albumid=59&mediaid=2168

  40. Silverton 500 says:

    As long as the barometer is dropping, it’s still incoming – right?

  41. Silverton 500 says:

    Wrath: I can’t really tell exactly where the front is, but if I had to guess, I’d say it looks very close to the coastline. If it is indeed still quite a ways out as you suggest, does that mean it is much stronger than we are seeing now? Is there any other way to tell exactly where the front is (e.g. wind direction)?

  42. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    29.74in Falling

  43. Tetraforce (The hidden fourth piece of The Triforce says:

    I;m just going by what Atmospheric Wrath our ‘Wind God’ says. LOL. From what he says it sounds like you will be in for it for a short-while due to the ground being saturated.
    Winds kicking up here again.
    Not sure if you catched that but we are going to Astoria tomorrow due to the roads being open aka highway 30.

  44. J - Kelso (Sea level) says:

    Something is happening right down from my house, on Kelso Drive. I’m curious to see what it is, there hasn’t been an emergency vehicles only ‘City of Kelso’ trucks.

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