Rainy and Warm Night Ahead

January 6, 2009

Snapshot  Now I'm really annoyed.  This is the 2nd time for this post.  I got all the way to my name, hit the post button, but apparently clicked something else on the keyboard at the same time.  Poof!  The post was gone.  But at least it's still mostly in my head.  Check out those wind gusts on Mt. Hood today!  Drew Jackson mentioned that parts of all 3 ski areas were closed today.  Rain plus strong wind isn't fun and those gusts of 50-100 mph aren't the best for the ski lifts either.  The 129 mph gust was at the top of the Magic Mile chairlift.

The melt continues in the hills today…I'm down to just spots of snow in the woods and the shoveled areas at home after a night in the 40s.  The lawn looks REALLY flat after having 5"+ snow on it for 3 weeks!

The big message that hopefully I'm getting across is that most of the Pineapple Express is heading into Washington this time around.  Heavy and flooding rains fall from tonight through Thursday morning in Southwest Washington, but I don't expect heavy rain here in most of Northwest Oregon until tomorrow evening.  The firehose is mainly aimed just to our north.  I'm assuming that the main reason for the Flood Watch from Portland south is due to already high rivers that will rise back to flood stage easily.

The Nehalem river already has a flood warning this evening.  It is forecast to rise to 26', which would be the 2nd highest on record after 1996.  Now last week the forecast was way off, by about 9' as the rainfall cut off quickly.  This week though, heavy rain combined with quite a bit more melting snowfall may push it much higher.  It'll be an interesting one to watch.

There is NO weather to discuss beyond Thursday.  The well-advertised big ridge sits over us from Friday through at least late next week.  It's not in a position to get strong surface high pressure east of the Cascades (at least initially), so fog is going to be a big issue with the very wet ground and little wind.  This time of the year we can stay fogged in all day, so forecasting high temps on the 7 Day forecast is challenging…Mark Nelsen