Rainy & Windy

Snapshot  My driveway was finally passable by 4×4 transportation today, that was after my wife and I did 3 stints shoveling out the last 200' over the weekend.  I even have 2 blisters to prove it…pretty cool eh?  I figure another 2 days of melting should allow a 2 wheel drive to go at least downhill, another day or two to get back up.  Life will be good again!  The warm rain over the weekend was amazingly effective at getting rid of the snow.  Here at the station in Beaverton there is no snow left on the ground.  I had 26" which is now down to around 6" at home.

The graphic is one I've shown on our various shows tonight (I've done 3 of 5 so far).  It makes a point;  just because you have a big snowpack in the mountains doesn't mean a flood is coming.  Thick snowpack is just one ingredient for a flood.  Last year there was twice as much in the Coast Range at two different times during the winter.  In fact the 2nd time there was 35" of snow water equivalent on Saddle Mtn. west of Forest Grove was at the end of April!  No flood because we never had heavy, warm rains on top of the snow.  We don't see that coming anytime soon either.  Lots of weather systems the next 10 days, but the freezing level jumps up and down with each cold and warm front.  We can use lots of rain because our monthly total is only about 1/2 of average, continuing a trend that began in January.  I'm shooting from the hip here, but I think August was the only month this year with above average rainfall.

None of the systems this week appear to have the correct positioning or strength to give us a windstorm in the Valley.  The Thursday night-Friday system has been taunting us for a few model runs.  The latest 00z run of the WRF-GFS would give us 15-17 millibars EUG-OLM pressure gradient for a very windy night, but probably no gusts above 50 mph.  It has the low center getting close to 960 mb. as it moves inland over central Vancouver Island, a bit too far north for a big storm here.

Okay, time to move on…got to get a few graphics organized for the 10pm show…Mark Nelsen

121 Responses to Rainy & Windy

  1. Sandman - Aloha says:

    🙂 Lurk Lurk Lurk.
    I agree I miss the snow already.
    Greatful yet missing. Gives us something to look forward to for the new year.

  2. Tetraforce says:

    (Plays sports fanfare) dun dun dun dun, dun dun dun dun da da da DA DA DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!………And both the Beavers and Ducks lose so their is no score. 😦 😦
    40f and bleak………I take that back it’s actually raining. 🙂 light rain. Tomorrow is hair-cut day I am not sure which hair but I hope it’s all of them. Hairs-cut.

  3. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Forest Grove will be in the crosshairs of a category 13 wind/snow/ice/sand storm for the next 3 1/2 years.
    I would HIGHLY recommend every hubby in the greater Forest Grove region stay home for the sake of their safety.

  4. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    How bout’ them Blazers! Showing some heart out there tonight. It is really good to see Bayless out there kicking some butt!

  5. Tetraforce says:

    And bleak too. (couldn’t figure out the word at first so excuse the double post)

  6. Tetraforce says:

    Good points Mike. I am glad someone knows bout the PNA setup for here. 🙂
    Weather: 39F and cloudy. According to Britians standards they would call this a dull day.

  7. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Just started raining. Have a question: with the next storm when are conditions going to be the worst?

  8. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    38.7°F in Forest Grove. No rain as of yet and snow is everywhere. I went out with my hubby before and couldn’t believe how much snow is left.

  9. Andrew (Ellensburg, wa and Portland, Or) says:

    Ouch.
    “While doing a live report from Lambeau field MSNBC Weatherman Mike Seidel slips busting his wrist on the ice.”
    http://break.com/index/weatherman-busts-wrist-on-ice.html

  10. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    nice defense by blazers!!!

  11. Justin says:

    Roy is out tonight, Blazers don’t have a prayer.

  12. Chris says:

    No Roy tonight…uhhh 37.2?

  13. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    I know exactly what you mean….. Boston really talks a lot of trash trying to get in your head…. We just have to ignore that. I thought I heard Roy wasn’t playing? I see really no realistic chance of winning without Roy.
    Back to weather.
    41.4f

  14. kcteach says:

    Also, I hope Pryzybylla punches Garnett in the mouth once he starts flapping his gums.
    I know, not weather talk, but it’s a bit slow right now.

  15. kcteach says:

    3 dropped passes and poor defense. Agree, Wrath, when you have a month to prepare, you should come out much quicker than they have.
    I think things look good for a HWW tomorrow. Hopefully we won’t see much damage due to saturated ground and fragile root systems.

  16. Atmospheric Wrath aka Gradient Keeper - Elevation 300' -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Cliff Clavin?
    Anyhow….
    So I’m watching the Ducks bowl game….
    We had a month to prepare for this game and that’s the effort we give? Wow… Awful play calling also.
    The good thing is somehow we are only down 17-7, the bad thing is the horrendous play calling will likely continue.
    Back to the weather….
    SO we have a HWWatch for the Coast Range now and 40-50mph gusts for the valley now hmmm well I like how things seem to be progressing for a possible significant event. Let’s get a HWWatch in the valleys by tomorrow…

  17. kcteach says:

    What about Marion Berry? It always snowed wherever he was…

  18. Jory says:

    Ed Berry!! THANK YOU!!!!!
    I have both Cliff Mass and Pete Parsons.
    Thanks again 🙂

  19. Richard Simmons says:

    Ed Berry.

  20. kcteach says:

    Do you mean Pete Parsons?

  21. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Jory are you speaking of Cliff Mass?
    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

  22. kcteach says:

    Pete Parsons

  23. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …poppies will make them sleep……(with apologies to Margaret Hamilton…)

  24. Jory says:

    Question, I just had to do a total re-install of everything on my PC, and lost quite a bit.
    Anyone remember the name of the Weather Scientist who posts those really complicated discussions / forecasts?? Parts of them have been posted here before, by me, and others.
    Thanks for any help anyone could give me 🙂

  25. SnowFlake (Tigard/Bull Mtn) says:

    oh crud….. there’s a snow flake on the new 7 day….
    How will I ever sleep now!!!???

  26. Snowlover(Sylvan Hill 500') says:

    I miss the snow 😦
    It was the only decent weather thing that happened this year.

  27. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    441 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2008
    LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
    CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
    NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
    CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
    GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ST. HELENS…CLATSKANIE…HILLSBORO…
    PORTLAND…OREGON CITY…GRESHAM…SALEM…MCMINNVILLE…DALLAS…
    EUGENE…CORVALLIS…ALBANY…SANDY…SILVER FALLS STATE PARK…
    SWEET HOME…GOVERNMENT CAMP…DETROIT…SANTIAM PASS…VIDA…
    LOWELL…COTTAGE GROVE…MCKENZIE BRIDGE…OAKRIDGE…
    WILLAMETTE PASS…COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER…
    MOUNT ST. HELENS…LONGVIEW…KELSO…CASTLE ROCK…VANCOUVER…
    BATTLE GROUND…WASHOUGAL…TOUTLE…ARIEL…COUGAR
    441 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2008
    …POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR OF
    NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ON NEW YEARS DAY…
    ON THURSDAY EVENING A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
    SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND OR FAR NORTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS SYSTEM
    IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE OF
    SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN OREGON.
    ADDITIONALLY…THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
    WINDS TO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT
    ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
    AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SOUTH TO
    SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. WIND GUSTS OF 40
    TO 50 MPH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
    MIDDAY THURSDAY…THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
    ADDITIONALLY THE SOUTH WASHINGTON…NORTH OREGON AND LANE COUNTY
    CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO SEE VERY STRONG WINDS
    THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
    THE CASCADES UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING…BUT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY
    MORNING.

  28. Mike from Orchards says:

    Looks like Western WA may be in for a good one. Whats amazing is that the models show this low continuing to deepen as it comes ashore and moves across Southern BC:

  29. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    http://www.kptv.com/wxmap/9430868/detail.html new 7 day.
    Re spell checker: If you use firefox it comes with a spell checker.

  30. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    find joy in our world
    walk softly amongst unhappy
    run hard with kindness

  31. Andrew (Ellensburg, wa and Portland, Or) says:

    Bitter cold moves in to Interior
    Temperatures could drop to 50 below zero in parts of Alaska
    The Associated Press
    FAIRBANKS – Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.
    Over the weekend, the mercury at Fairbanks International Airport dropped to 39 degrees below zero. Areas in the Interior outside the city were even colder; 46 below on the Yukon Flats, 41 below in Fort Yukon and 44 below in Central, according to the weather service.
    Rick Thoman, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Fairbanks, said temperatures rose a few degrees on Sunday, but that was it.
    “The temperature will probably continue to go up and down randomly,” he said. “With no clouds and no wind on the valley floor, temperatures are pretty much probably going to be stuck.”
    Fairbanks had experienced a relatively mild winter prior to Christmas. It had only dropped to 30 below once, in early December.
    The howling winds and frigid weather were too much for several mushers, including four-time Iditarod winner Jeff King and his dog team, who pulled out of the Gin Gin 200, a 200-mile race along the Denali Highway.
    For the men, Brent Sass came in first, ahead of more well-known mushers such as four-time Yukon Quest and two-time Iditarod champion Lance Mackey who was fourth.
    Mackey, resting Monday at the lodge in Paxson, said it was blowing so hard and the teams were getting so turned around by the wind that it almost made him laugh.
    “It was almost comical. Your sled was going sideways down the road,” he said.
    Further down the trail, when temperatures dipped to 50 below, it wasn’t so much fun, he said.
    “There were a lot of people not wanting to put their teams through that,” Mackey said. “It is all about the dogs in a situation like this… They get hardened by this stuff. That is why we do it.”
    For the women, defending champion Jodi Bailey of Chatanika came in first.
    Several mushers pulled out of the race from Paxson to the MacLaren River Lodge.
    “It was a real challenge this year,” Bailey wrote on a friend’s Facebook page. “Winds like a banshee, and killer cold, wow am I glad to be back in Paxson!!!”
    According to the race Web site, temperatures at the MacLaren River Lodge were between 35 and 40 below. It was reportedly 10 to 15 degrees colder on the lower portions of the trail during the second portion of the race.
    In Southeast Alaska, at least 20 inches of snow fell in Ketchikan, forcing the shut down of the Ketchikan International Airport for a few hours. The airport shut down at about 1:30 p.m. Sunday due to the heavy snow.
    “We’ll stay here all night and dig out,” airport manager Mike Carney said.
    The airport reopened Monday and normal operations resumed.

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