Mild Temps Continue

Snapshot Whew…seems like mild Fall temps just don't want to go away.  Once again we made it into the mid 50s today.  And check out the morning low!  We couldn't even make it down to our normal high.

I would like to move on and talk about fun and exciting weather in our future…but there isn't any.  But I'll try.

There is a quite a dry airmass gradually working south through Eastern Oregon this evening.  Check out the dewpoint drops in the Okanogan Valley through the day as a north wind moved in.  This drier and cooler air fills the Columbia Basin tomorrow and Thursday.  Of course then it'll come through the Gorge, clearing skies for Thursday and Friday.

Not much to say beyond that except the 7-10 day forecast looks relatively quiet.  MAYBE more activity towards the middle of next week, but I'm skeptical for now…Mark Nelsen

311 Responses to Mild Temps Continue

  1. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Mark is doing the weather at least for the 5:00pm news which started at 5:30pm.

  2. JN (ENE of Washougal) says:

    I must say everything is looking better. I might have to change my mind from most probability of low snow levels to snow down to sea level if the 00Z keeps the trend. GFS ensembles are coming into much better agreement, Euro is looking good and Canadian is at least iffy, but hopefully will come around tonight. Overall the trend looks like chances of snow starting around day 8 and maybe a very brief intrusion of arctic air a few days later, GFS also hints at a transition event but that’s way off in lala land. It seems it might be time for Mark to give his two cents on this or at least the time frame just past the 7 day! Oh, and I hit 28 last night for the first time in over a month.

  3. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    …( Rob! not that i’m saying your scared, but i need some reference point for the very obscure question i’m about to ask)…
    ..if *** scared, then i’m scared…serious bonus points if you know who wrote this line about Einstein…

  4. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Good afternoon
    * LONG POST *
    Well I checked all of the 12z models and finally we see the pattern change now with the more reliable and believable UW WRF-GFS. I have been watching this model waiting for then the pattern change to appear on it and it shows it well. Remember this model run is only within the 7 day time-frame. This means IMO the other operational runs of the NCEP GFS, EURO, GEM, UKMET should speed things up nicely moving their data ahead 12 to 36 hours maybe starting with tonight’s 00z or tomorrow’s 12z runs. Okay so onto the details or the “goods” enough blabbing about this stuff.
    [UW WRF-GFS 12z extended 36km View]
    Running this loop we see a very deep low way out south of the Aleutians near 170-175 W. The offshore ridge retrogrades, but more noticeable is the very strong northerly flow blasting down the British Columbia Coast. This pushes the ridge out of the way allowing for the newly formed surface low over Vancouver Island to dig south. A rather impressive Arctic front drops south as well to about Williams Lake/Prince George, British Columbia. A strong temp/pressure gradient is very evident and appears to be tightening as the Arctic front heads for the British Columbia/Washington border. I do not see any low development in the Gulf of Alaska nor do I see any upper lows/troughs over Hawaii to impede the trough/Arctic front to continue dropping south.
    [Friday December 12th – 4:00 PM]

    This should pull the low over Vancouver Island S-SSE down the Washington/Oregon Coast pushing through Oregon with the attended Arctic front moving through northern Washington, Puget Sound, Southwest Washington, and finally down through the Willamette Valley.
    Here is an even better view of this situation.
    [UW WRF-GFS extended 12z 12km View]
    First surge of colder air moves down into Montana, but a noticeable cooling over the Columbia Basin, Eastern Washington, British Columbia, and Alberta also occurs.
    [Friday December 12th – 4:00 PM]

    Can see the Arctic front laying over South-Central British Columbia with the accompanying low pressure over Vancouver Island.
    [My Thoughts]
    As I mentioned before seeing this show up with the much more reliable and accurate UW WRF-GFS give me hope instead of my usual cautiously optimistic attitude. If we see tonight’s 00z run show this and move things ahead 1/2 to 1 day that would be great. Assuming this pans out I assume the Arctic front will drag the low pressure over Vancouver Island down through Washington/Oregon.
    [My concerns]
    The low over Vancouver Island doesn’t behave favorably moving more ESE through northern Washington tending to “hang up” the Arctic front over Southern British Columbia thus losing stream and seeming to wash-out never really giving us a true punch of Arctic air. We have seen that happen before. We don’t want that to happen because the ridge moving out of the way which is in turn holding up the westerly onshore flow with the deep low near 170 W could allow the flow to cut down over the top of the ridge thus pushing the Arctic air off to the east. Let’s hope not.
    Keep your fingers crossed!
    Any thoughts?

  5. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:


  6. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    ..oh yea, i forgot that..

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Nope, you guys are wrong, we have a COMPLETE grasp on the complexities of global climate 😉

  8. Marc (NE Orchards) says:

    I agree with you Boring Larry!

  9. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    ..ive said this before, and will say it again..the planet is as the planet does..there’s no denying that some of the warmest years in recent history have happened lately, most glaciers are not increasing. icepacks are showing thinness,…etc…
    plan for the worst, hope for the best, but above all, no one should pretend to be able to say that global warming or cooling is the definite path…and we should admire anyone who is trying to constructively make sense of the situation…..
    …back to kicking those unaffected pigeons…

  10. spinsanity (downtown pdx) says:

    I feel like a broken record, ranting across the vast internet about global warming. There are a few things to keep in mind. Firstly, it is a global /trend/. In any trend there can be a certain level of variance away from the trend, but the general pattern is still towards the same end. Look at local climates year over year. In spring, it starts to trend warmer, but once in a while, we get very cold spans in spring. This does not mean that spring is not a time of general warming, just that at times during spring it can also go cold. Apply this same logic to global warming, which is on a massive scale. 10, 20 even 30 years can pass with some cooling, but the general trend for the past 200 years lets say is still towards a warmth.
    Glaciers can grow despite a general warming trend, just as there are anomalies in the seasons, there are anomalies in climate change. You must look at the bigger, much bigger pictures. Glacier growth for the first time does not at all indicate a trend.
    I can not believe there is still ongoing debate of the existence of global climate change. I was under the impression that we were past that, and now all debating the root cause, which even I will admit is not set in stone.

  11. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    So how do you guys think the 12z Euro compares to the 00z…It seems to me that the 12z has sped things up a little bit actually. Somebody on western said the 12z run wasn’t quite as good though…

  12. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The extended run MM5-GFS model from UW looks pretty cool going into the final few frames (only goes out to hour 180). The last few days you see the big surge of arctic air pushing south.

  13. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Iphone version of model review:
    Ecmwf arctic blast ( including the arctic fist that punches in at 240h)
    Gfs turning cold
    Canadian and nogaps cold but could be colder

  14. gidrons says:

    12z gfs looking more like Euro…cold

  15. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    First glance the 12z Euro looks good.

  16. TriforceofEternity says:

    That article is so hypocriticle saying Global Warming is still melting stuff when glaciers are growing that haven’t grown in 10 or so years.

  17. TriforceofEternity says:

    And from that article of course Global Warming has slowed. It either is warming up or it ain.
    Just like the sun rises and it warms and the sun-sets so it gets cold.

  18. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    ..Hey spinsanity…we’ve all been newbies…enjoy!!!

  19. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Sorry, Spin I should have included that and the 1000+ posts too. You already fit in if you’ve found this blog in the first place and keep coming back…

  20. spinsanity (downtown pdx) says:

    You forgot newbies like me come around and try to fit in 🙂

  21. Heisson Rob says:

    Just thought I’d drop in here that it’s currently clear and chilly here in Cannon Beach – very unlike last year.

  22. TriforceofEternity says:

    37.8F now with mostly clear skies though the sun tried to go out for some reason….Nope the sun is now appearing again.
    Low of 30.7F last night the coldest of the 2008 Fall so far. 😀 I wonder when my first 20s will be?
    I wonder how much comments we will get if we have an epic snow-storm and cold air combo?

  23. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    We know it is winter when:
    Steve P. regularly soils himself on models showing arctic outbreaks, snow, or windstorms
    Dr. Rob goes crazy on east wind gradients
    Boring Larry posts Haikus
    Jacob comes out From hiding with His wonderful Hints
    Aloha Rainshadow stays up way too late riding models
    PaulB puts his interpretations of all the models on here for us
    Jesse from Orchards is getting enthusiastic about the upcoming events
    Lurkers like myself come out and ride the models too as we eagerly wait by the computer for the next model run to come out and see if the same trend continues…

  24. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Finally some respectable seasonably cool overnight lows last night
    PDX 30
    Salem 27
    Eugene 26
    Hillsboro 25
    The Dalles 22
    Hermiston 16
    Baker City 14
    Burns 14
    Rome 10

  25. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I wonder if this is a situation where Mark is glad the news folks can’t read weather models? I can already see the “Winter Storm 08” graphics being prepared if they could.

  26. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    winter blog season
    will it wont it model ride
    weather geek heaven

  27. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    saw that post haha yea he is working on it
    well with dewpoint at 28 and 25 on the 14th
    wouldn’t be suprised if snow falls on valley floor then right?

  28. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    I saw it briefly called “Like a kid in a (weather) candy store” Did anybody else see that?

  29. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Mark is working on a post I think. He was at zoo lights yesterday, so no surprise that he did not post last night.

  30. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    That would be sweet though wouldn’t it??
    Interesting how wet it gets when the cold air arrives. Usually it is the opposite or wet afterwards.
    The Pearson model from Meteostar shows the earliest it would be cold enough for snow on the valley floor around the 15th/16th when it gets to -9 and -10.

  31. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    2.14×10= you know the math :))
    21.4 inches of snow here in beaverton??? haha

  32. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    General rule of thumb is 0.10″ = 1″ of snow.
    2.14″ of precipitable moisture would be a lot of snow!

  33. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    2008 will go down as the coolest of the decade so far…

  34. Jesse-Orchards says:

    As it stands now, yeah, the 13th (a week from tomorrow) is when things look like they will begin to get interesting.

  35. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    even more interesting there are 2.14 inches of rain between 12/13 and 12/17
    now what could that translate into snow terms?????!!!

  36. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    alright sweet
    well i really like GFS right now!!!
    everything seems to be falling together like a puzzle
    so i am thinking this all starts on the 13th of december right guys?

  37. WAPilot, Castle Rock WA says:

    Well the GFS for 3 days now has been trending towards a cooler and more active pattern towards the tail end of the run. Maybe this split flow will have it’s rewards with a white christmas.

  38. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    TD does stand for dew point. I scratched my head on that one for a long time!
    I got down to 31 in Vancouver… Did have frost down on Swan Island when I got to work this morning as well.

  39. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Yev I think that is the dewpoint as you said.

  40. yevgeniy.beaverton says:
    got a question
    what does TD on here stand for??
    temparature dewpoint?

  41. Christiana--Forest Grove says:

    Got down to 29 and is now 36. I hope it gets a little warmer than that out here. Check out this web page: I thught that it was kind of funny.

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