Thanksgiving Eve

Snapshot Nice looking turkey isn't it?

A brief post this evening since we're in the middle of the 10pm show and I need to be on again in a few minutes.

Models handled the sudden increase in easterly flow today really well.  PDX-DLS gradient peaked out quite close to 10 millibars around 8pm but has weakened to around 8 millibars at this hour.  Clearly some downsloping wind mixed in with the Gorge wind, but it'll become more of a plain old Gorge wind by daybreak.  That makes forecasting low temps very difficult.  Peak gusts have made it to right around 50 mph at the west end of the Gorge and will probably stay below 60 mph the rest of the night.  You folks in Troutdale are sure getting the wind tonight with gusts to 44 mph last hour.  The east wind should be completely gone by early afternoon tomorrow, even in the Gorge.

Another sad looking front moves inland tomorrow…maybe some light rain, maybe not.  Same thing Friday night and Saturday morning.

Long range maps have changed around a few times in the last 24 hours.  The BIG picture shows a long wave ridge anchored quite close to the West Coast through at least the end of next week.  There have been hints of wetter (warm or cool, depending on the model) conditions at the end of next week, but nothing too impressive.

That's about it.  I have tomorrow off, but I'll be back Friday.  Enjoy dinner!  Mark Nelsen

79 Responses to Thanksgiving Eve

  1. TriforceofEternity says:

    In case anyone is interested there is a short discussion going on about a possible Pineapple express in Early Dec and whether they deliver arctic air following it.

  2. stevied - (North Portland) says:

    A good night! Blazers win again, and…
    00z GFS lala land fund to look at…
    thickness as low as -13c overhead PDX on Dec. 12th. Brrrr.
    -8c over PDX on Dec. 11th is when it would begin.

  3. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    The Unisys GFS/MRF model is a thing of beauty:
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html

  4. pedro771-Tigard says:

    Yep the GFS is playing tricks on us once again.
    Go blazers!

  5. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    If you do not want to be eventually disappointed do not look at 00z GFS

  6. gloriousnumber1 says:

    Should we be worried if early/mid december still has not produced good snowpack and continues this pattern and then assume this year will suck for the ski season? I hope that doesn’t happen. If my memory is correct, 2002 was a terrible year up there, I didn’t even go up there once, which is a first in recent years. But, as one person (sorry I don’t remember who, but I give them credit!) mentioned, warm novembers mean NOTHING in predicting winters.

  7. TriforceofEternity says:

    X: (axe on Triforce)

  8. TriforceofEternity says:

    Ohhhh the NWS has issued a blog min warning.
    51F here much warmer then previously + cloudy which = YUCK! If winter weather including snow to 1,000ft at least isn’t here by Dec 21st then I am canceling winter.

  9. TriforceofEternity says:

    National Weather Service:
    The National Weather Service has issued a minimum blog warning which is in effect west of the Cascades for Oregon/Washington. If you are in these zones please refere to us for the weather as the blog will not show any info.
    Expires: 11/30/2008 0:00hrs
    National Weather Service:

  10. Aloha Rainshadow (Formerly Luvry in Aloha) says:

    Should be a good Blazer game! Looking forward to it!
    Phil, definetely a blog min going on right now, may have to issue a warning, maybe a new blog cycle to start this weekend…
    Lot going on outside of weather, holiday weekend, civil war, blazers, family get togethers, weather is definitely taking a backseat today!
    That’s ok cause our weather is about as dull, boring and murky as it gets.
    I won’t be posting much tomorrow if at all, going to the civil war game as a duck fan and sitting in the Beav Alum section, should be fun!
    GO DUCKS!!!

  11. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Wow – Blog minimum this afternoon. Everyone must be on holiday. The weather sure is dull. Dull, grey and occaisional mist today here. .01″ rain.
    The 18z GFS looks good for snow in the cascades in the long term. It looks like the weather going to get more active next week.

  12. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Wow – Blog minimum this afternoon. Everyone must be on holiday. The weather sure is dull. Dull, grey and occaisional mist today here. .01″ rain.
    The 18z GFS looks good for snow in the cascades in the long term. It looks like the weather going to get more active next week.

  13. Aloha Rainshadow (Formerly Luvry in tanasbourne) says:

    Good afternoon everyone!
    Happy “Day before the beavers rose bowl hopes are crushed” day!!!!
    18z running now.
    Tired, turkey still lingering.
    Hope all are well.

  14. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    From the looks of the models, the end of next week should be good for building up the snow pack. Ski season may start the weekend of the 12-14th.

  15. N3EG says:

    Thursday morning’s low here in Longview was 28, with 5 lows below freezing this month.

  16. N3EG says:

    Thursday morning’s low here in Longview was 28, with 5 lows below freezing this month.

  17. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    The 6z wasn’t bad either actually. A lot of cold air building in the north too…
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=PAFA

  18. stevied - (North Portland) says:

    According to the 12z GFS, looks like around Dec. 4th the pattern starts getting pretty wet – at about hour 150. A mild, zonal flow. Then, around Dec. 8th (hour 240), starts getting more interesting with a NW flow. If it pans out, this should bring in some nice mountain snow to somewhat low mountain elevations with -4c overhead. Hour 288 continues to bring showers with -5c overhead PDX. Fairly chilly. Hour 300 has -6c overhead, moisture, and sub 522mb heights, hinting at the possibility of some flakes mixing in. We’ll see. Have a good weekend of leftovers!

  19. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Just high clouds above all the fog down here.

  20. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Too bad PDX hasn’t hit freezing yet…many places including my station have seen 4-5 freezes.
    A year ago today, I recorded a high of 39.6 and a low of 31.8 with some fog, light rain around 12:30 PM and even 0.1″ of snow.

  21. Big_D says:

    Yes – first November without a freeze since 1999.

  22. So I was obsessing over the monthly charts page when it dawned on me…
    …Are we looking at our first non-sub 30 farenheit November since 2004? Are we looking at our first non-freezing November in several years?

  23. TriforceofEternity says:

    Good night Steve. I do hope the models come back to the Artic air It seems they don’t want any trend.

  24. TriforceofEternity says:

    Yeah! (turns off the models for da night)
    43F here

  25. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Way to ruin my Thanksgiving Steve! JK

  26. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Way to ruin my Thanksgiving Steve! JK

  27. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    0z Euro = UGLY!
    Good night!
    SP

  28. TriforceofEternity says:

    What’s wrong and who are you?

  29. Anonymous says:

    help

  30. Anonymous says:

    help

  31. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Sounds like a fun trip Jacob. Have a safe trip.
    43.1 for a high today, 30.0 for a low. Temp stuck at 40.8 for quite a while now.
    The average temp for today was 38, which is not too warm and it has been grey and drippy all afternoon and evening. .09″ pricip so far today.

  32. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Well judging by the recent trend with the GFS I think after early next week we are going to finally get our rains. Pattern looks pretty zonal, winter in the northwest!

  33. jacob BPA says:

    Well Happy Thanksgiving to all
    I ve finally am caught up on work.
    Imagine in 10 years we will be harnessing the waves for Energy I was on the Coast in Coos Bay with some OSU Students looking at that potential
    Very interesting to say the Least
    Next Stop Hawaii then onto Saipan will be home sometime Mid December For the Winter weather action
    Talk to all of u soon

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