Rex Block and Pizza

610day  Nice cold front moving through the west side of the state (OR or WA, pick yours) right now.  It's not going to stick around long and doesn't have a whole lot of moisture associated with it.  Once again models have done really well on timing and intensity of precipitation.  Now we move on to weak onshore flow and a few mainly mountain showers tomorrow.  Easterly low level flow develops Sunday and Monday for dry weather and more sunshine (away from the usual morning fog locations).  A weak Pacific system shears apart with the remains moving overhead sometime late Monday or Tuesday.  Some models say we'll get some light rain, others are dry.  I lean more towards dry with this sort of a split flow seen in the maps, although I do have one sad looking shower sitting on Tuesday morning's forecast.

Forecast is very messy beyond that…models all show some sort of ridging, Omega Block, or Rex Block developing over the West Coast and Eastern Pacific later next week.  The image I've included clearly shows the 6-10 pattern.  Upper level heights are way above average to our north and northwest, and well below normal over California.  A Rex Block is an upper level high centered over an upper level low…similar to the 12z GFS.  As I mentioned last night though, one thing is certain.  No model shows a rainy weather pattern through the end of this month or even the first few days of December.

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Steve Pierce would like to remind everyone of the big event tomorrow:

The 2nd Annual "Weather Get-Together" will be Saturday, November 22nd at 2pm in N.E. Portland at the very same location as last year, Stark Street Pizza Company, 9234 SE Stark St, just west of I-205! Bring yourself, a friend, kids, spouses, etc… to talk weather and eat some pizza. It was a great turnout last year and we hope to see everyone again this year!

See: http://starkstreetpizza.com/
Here is a driving map: http://www.mapquest.com/maps?city=Portland…SE+Stark+Street

I'm not sure if I'm going to make it…depends on what the family is up to.

265 Responses to Rex Block and Pizza

  1. andy cottle says:

    GEM model showung a near 1040mb ridge just off the West coast and giving N-NW flow aloft and systems riding up and over the ridge and then into our region.

  2. andy cottle says:

    18zGFS does move the cooler/colder air further west but also off shore, but at the same, a large trough is seen off shore in the long term period with thicknesses lowering 528m and 850mb temps this time only falling to -3, -4c. Also looks to be some SW flow aloft, so basically would be snow in the mountains and just a cool and rainy period over the lands. No chance for lowland snow here in this run. But the pattern over last few runs have been to call for some type of much cooler and colder pattern taking shape around mid Dec. Even a few of the ensemble charts are looking fairly chilly in the long range.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…p300336_m.shtml
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…p348384_m.shtml
    Long range ensemble charts.

  3. andy cottle says:

    12zGFS in the long range is kinda like the 06zGFS as it features very cool and wet weather with snow likely in the mountains if this were to verify. Maybe see some lowland snow as thicknesses drop to the mid-upper 520`s and 850mb temps dropping to about -6c. However there is SW flow aloft around Dec, 10th/11th but switches over to more of a NNW flow with 500mb heights lowering to around 528dm. The 0c(32F) also drops just south of Seattle, so could see a little snow or an icy mix of some kind, though 700mb thicknesses do drop to 1282m, but think more than likely the mountains would be getting snow with a cool/cold trough eventually dropping over us here in the long term. Maybe the long range is on to some sort of cooling trend, but we`ll just have to see.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…p348384_m.shtml

  4. andy cottle says:

    06z isn`t to bad, but it`s nothing like the 00z.
    In the longer range it does still appear that we do have cooler air invading our region from the far Canadian north by Dec, 10th/11th time frame. Think maybe could still see some snow around parts of western WA as the 0c(32F) drops sound of Seattle during the day of Dec, 11th. Perhaps late morning/ early afternoon period. However unlike the 00z, thicknesses on the 06z only drop to roughly 522m under WNW flow at the surface and aloft with 850mb temps falling to -6, -7c with plenty of moisture seen at 700mb. But also seeing thicknesses of 1288m at 700mb leads me to believe that some of could see snow or a rain/snow icy mix, however aloft at 500mb, the flow is WNW off the WA/OR coast with flow being nearly zonal over WA state. So think it would be a matter of how much cold gets dragged down from the upper layers and also how high your elevation is at your locale. So again, this model run is nothing like the 00z, but it`s not all that bad either.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…n300336_m.shtml
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…n348384_m.shtm

  5. andy cottle says:

    A larger image of the 384hr GFS and showing where the Rain/snow line is and the mention of where snow and rain would be on this map. :o)

  6. Derek (Arcadia, California) says:

    I’m Derek’s dad, and if anyone wants to respond to this post of Derek’s, then I’ll make sure that he gets those responses.
    11/17/2008
    It was very hot and windy on Saturday which helped to create these monster fires in my area. When the winds were blowing, even theugh the fires were only a few miles away, the air was fine. But on Sunday when it was calm, it got super smokey. It was hot too, about 95. No rain in sight. Currently, looking forward to some arctic air,… anything’s possible with A&W, right?
    Posted by: Derek (Arcadia, California)

  7. andy cottle says:

    Okay, here we go again with details.
    Around Dec, 10th a very cold surge of arctic air drops south from the Northern BC area via 1004mb low dragging that colder air into our region with N-NW flow at the surface and also aloft. And looks like a fairly moist area of low pressure at the surface and up at 700mb with over Western WA during this time. Looks to be FAIRLY WINDY over N.Interior during this time as isobars/ pressure gradients becomes tightly packed. So a very cold, yet VERY snowy/wintry day across that area with breezy to windy conditions later in the day for rest of the interior of Western WA as thicknesses drop to near 516m with 850mb temp of about -15c and 500mb heights falling to roughly 528m. 10m temp not as cold and falling to -10(20F), but still cold very well see snow if this were all to verify.

  8. andy cottle says:

    Ok, so here is what appears to happen. It appears that a surface and upper level ridge of high pressure at near 1030mb looks to retrograde far enough west over the Pacific to allow some VERY COLD, yet very moist system(as seen at 700mb) to drop down out of the far northern and high Canadian parries starting around Dec, 9th with thicknesses over Western WA dropping to around 522m by morning of Dec, 9th and dropping even further and into the 508-510m category by morning of Dec, 10th. Not only does it cold with 10m surface temps falling to -10c(20F), but we also get in on some tight isobars which would spell very breezy to windy conditions over much of Western WA. Also, 850mb temps fall to between -15 to -18c(5 to -0.4F) with 500mb heights only lowering to 522dm. Assuming this were to pan out, we could very well see SEVERAL INCHES worth of snow and perhaps around 8+” or more over 24-36hr period. This would certainly be a COLD arctic invasion as we could see highs in the lower teens with lows in the single digits, but that is a bit extreme for our region. Pretty darn cold to say the least.
    Maybe the 00z will show this again. huh.gif
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…0300336_m.shtml
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…0348384_m.shtml
    10m surface winds/temps.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…n348384_m.shtml
    500mb chart showing NW winds changing to near zonal right at the WA/OR coast.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an…0348384_m.shtml

  9. Tornado Aly (vancouver) says:

    Of course now that I say that I noticed that the October, November, and December of 1989 was dry as well, and we all know what happened that winter!

  10. Tornado Aly (vancouver) says:

    That fall leading up to the winter in 1949 was not as dry as this one though. Our precip this fall is more like 1923 that I can see. That winter only yielded 5 inches of snow for us most of which was in January. But just because that’s what happened that winter, won’t mean it’ll happen this winter. I hope to see the faucet turned on soon though!

  11. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    Justin, wasn’t it 44″…give or take a trace on either side.

  12. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Hence “More than 16″” 🙂
    I knew it was a lot I was just too lazy to find the numbers.

  13. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    I noticed that Rob, while it seemed like the 12z was stagnant to me. I did notice that one high was being replaced by another weak high. Not the big Rex or Omega Blocks like we saw before.

  14. Justin/ KVUO snowman says:

    Ryan, we had a lot more than 16″ that winter,
    More like 40-50″.

  15. Justin/ KVUO snowman says:

    Ryan, we had a lot more than 16″ that winter,
    More like 40-50″.

  16. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    haha, guys, for the most part I post these lala land thoughts because it’s great to talk about what would be if this were to occur. We are all model riders and we are all bright enough to know we can’t trust anything past 5-7 days, so why not have some fun with LALA? Our weather is boring as heck right now anyways.
    GEM looked good last night, Euro looked great at 12z today, GFS introduces some cold into the run for the first time in 3 days. I think trend wise, we’re going in the right direction, away from 12-15 days of ridging. There are some other interesting things on the 18z but I don’t have the time to post those right now, I’m sure someone will 🙂

  17. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Ohhhh and FYI… in 1950 coming off the warmest November in PDX history we saw some pretty solid arctic activity. 13 of January daily records for cold where set in 1950.
    Additionally the winter of 49/50 had more than 16″ of snow. All of this following the warmest November on record.
    Information courtesy of another blog here:
    http://www.katu.com/blogs/weather/35002314.html

  18. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Well considering the warmest November on record was in 1949 and this November is a contender but still off thus far.

  19. k5mitch NE PDX says:

    It does not snow in PDX anymore and we better get over it. But we can always dream of the late 60’s. Man made globle warming (hype ?) or just the nature’s cycle- it’s your call. But please let it snow…

  20. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    One thing I noticed with the 12z in the short term 3-7 day range was the ridging and overall pattern looked a tad more transitory moving things along rather than stagnant being the theme.
    Did anyone else notice that?
    I wonder what the JMA or Vietnamese models are showing.

  21. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I want to get excited… But I just can’t. There are two reasons I can’t.
    #1 – It is the 18z.
    #2 – The trend for weeks now has been to introduce arctic air every coupled days and then take it way and replace it with a high sitting on top of the west.
    If this is still showing up by the 18Z tomorrow I might get excited. Until then I can only assume that the 00Z will take it away.

  22. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Only 5 1/2-6 hours until the 00z GFS, then 8 hours until the 00z EURO!
    I almost can’t wait.

  23. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Only 5 1/2-6 hours until the 00z GFS, then 8 hours until the 00z EURO!
    I almost can’t wait.

  24. stevied - (North Portland) says:

    Okay… so last week a couple models showed possible arctic air around Dec. 3rd. That’s gone, obviously. 18z now puts cold air plus moisture around Dec. 10th. I’m hoping! Only 16 days away… what could go wrong? 😉

  25. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    HAHA, anyone like the looks of this?


    This would be epic, haha, I bet you if the GFS went out to hour 420, you’d see a historic arctic outbreak shown.
    What I like about this, even though it’s lala, is the trend, 06z showed this same thing with less bite to it…the ridge that was progged yesterday has definitely been chilled out, still there, just some definite flux in the longer range GFS now…

  26. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Maybe the 18z is beginning a trend to come to an agreement with the 12z Euro?
    Wishful thinking.

  27. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Maybe the 18z is beginning a trend to come to an agreement with the 12z Euro?
    Wishful thinking.

  28. stevied - (North Portland) says:

    Woohooo! Hours 372-384 on the 18zGFS show snow in PDX! Uh… yeah. Anyone? Anyone? Serious la-la land there.

  29. luvry (in tanasbourne) says:

    If you like snow, cold and lala land, then you’ll like the 18z…I told Steve P this morning the GFS is shifting a bit in the long range and that I thought we’d see LALA go arctic in the next couple days…and then it did 🙂
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_384.shtml

  30. TriforceofEternity says:

    43F here and partly cloudy. My low was 31F today and freezing fog. MY FIRST FROST!!

  31. TriforceofEternity says:

    How about Dec 21st for PDX’s first snowfall?

  32. TriforceofEternity says:

    How about Dec 21st for PDX’s first snowfall?

  33. timmy - Scappoose says:

    this sucks, i was so looking forward to taking my WRX in the snow for the first time over thanksgiving in Ukiah… looks like i have a little chance of that… but it doesn’t look like it will be a lot, if any. i should have gone over haloween! lol

  34. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    I predicted the first snowfall to be on Dec. 19th…I’m not ready to give up on that dream just yet! lol

  35. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I think 1 snow event isn’t too much to ask for. Now whether or not said snow event amounts to 1″ of snow that melts by 9am or is 12″ of snow that hangs around for a week is to be seen.
    Clearly the earliest we’d see such a thing is the end of December going into January.

  36. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I think 1 snow event isn’t too much to ask for. Now whether or not said snow event amounts to 1″ of snow that melts by 9am or is 12″ of snow that hangs around for a week is to be seen.
    Clearly the earliest we’d see such a thing is the end of December going into January.

  37. Danny says:

    what do you guys think about snow in the portland metro area this year. I haven’t heard an offical winter weather forcast for this year. I would love to have snow in the valley this year. If that were to happen, when do you think?

  38. Derek (Arcadia, California) says:

    11/17/2008
    It was very hot and windy on Saturday which helped to create these monster fires in my area. When the winds were blowing, even theugh the fires were only a few miles away, the air was fine. But on Sunday when it was calm, it got super smokey. It was hot too, about 95. No rain in sight. Currently, looking forward to some arctic air,… anything’s possible with A&W, right?

  39. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    I like that map Steve!

  40. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    There is hope after all!!!!!
    The 12z Euro is liking the idea of bringing both the subtropical and polar jets much closer to the Pac NW in the long range with a sharp ridge tapping some cold air up north and wanting to send a trough down through BC. Remember, long range in the Euro is only one week, not three weeks like the GFS.
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008112412!!/
    SP

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