Nice cold front moving through the west side of the state (OR or WA, pick yours) right now. It's not going to stick around long and doesn't have a whole lot of moisture associated with it. Once again models have done really well on timing and intensity of precipitation. Now we move on to weak onshore flow and a few mainly mountain showers tomorrow. Easterly low level flow develops Sunday and Monday for dry weather and more sunshine (away from the usual morning fog locations). A weak Pacific system shears apart with the remains moving overhead sometime late Monday or Tuesday. Some models say we'll get some light rain, others are dry. I lean more towards dry with this sort of a split flow seen in the maps, although I do have one sad looking shower sitting on Tuesday morning's forecast.
Forecast is very messy beyond that…models all show some sort of ridging, Omega Block, or Rex Block developing over the West Coast and Eastern Pacific later next week. The image I've included clearly shows the 6-10 pattern. Upper level heights are way above average to our north and northwest, and well below normal over California. A Rex Block is an upper level high centered over an upper level low…similar to the 12z GFS. As I mentioned last night though, one thing is certain. No model shows a rainy weather pattern through the end of this month or even the first few days of December.
Steve Pierce would like to remind everyone of the big event tomorrow:
The 2nd Annual "Weather Get-Together" will be Saturday, November 22nd at 2pm in N.E. Portland at the very same location as last year, Stark Street Pizza Company, 9234 SE Stark St, just west of I-205! Bring yourself, a friend, kids, spouses, etc… to talk weather and eat some pizza. It was a great turnout last year and we hope to see everyone again this year!
Here is a driving map: http://www.mapquest.com/maps?city=Portland…SE+Stark+Street
I'm not sure if I'm going to make it…depends on what the family is up to.