Mountain Snow

Snapshot A bit of snow in the Cascades…enough to make the top of the newscast in this very slow weather month.  Looks like maybe 1" at Government Camp to 5" up at Timberline and Meadows.  Radar shows things really dying off rain-wise at this hour, so this big "snowstorm" is over.

Pretty quiet tomorrow before a weaker system drags it's sorry end through here tomorrow evening.  Our RPM model shows all of .15" with this system and then nothing on Saturday.  Looks like another dry weekend on the way!

Some serious issues in long range forecasts the last 48 hours, and this evening is the worst of all.  00z GFS has Omega Blocking developing a few days earlier than it showed at 00z last night, soon after Thanksgiving.  The GENERAL idea seems to be some sort of ridging SOMEWHERE within 500 miles of the West Coast.  Placement is everything…some model runs have the ridge right over us, some have it offshore which allows cold air to move south from Western Canada.  Drew and I were discussing one thing that ALL models keep showing;  no significant westerly flow.  No model shows significant rainfall.  Looks like November will probably end up being a drier than normal month here…Mark Nelsen

88 Responses to Mountain Snow

  1. boydo3 says:

    In reference to Tri’s question about Nov 00. The Oregon Climate Service has tons of charts and records going nearly a hundred years back. Check it out. But remember that George Taylor is no longer there so there isn’t much going on that is new or current.

  2. Mike (Sweet Home - El 580') says:

    Looks like some lightning showing up off the coast of Washington.

  3. wendy-silverlake,wa says:

    Where is the wind coming from. Been blowing here at a good clip for the last 2 hours?

  4. Phil (HIO) good to see you last night at the meeting! Go weather geeks!!!

  5. Here is some weather for everyone. My station in the “Grove” only reached 45 as a high today with a partial sun break through the fog and mid-level clouds, just before the sunset. Brrr. Oh wait, that is a seasonal brew from Widmer, yumm!!!! http://www.widmer.com/beer_brrr.aspx 7.2 percent alcohol per volume!!

  6. TriforceofEternity says:

    I think Street view is a tad bit creepy but it’s not a live image so they aren’t tracking us and it’s no different then what any photographer can take legally.
    Heck if I had the funds I could do my own street view of Silverton at every intersection/Junction as long as I don’t go onto private property.
    45F here and overcast:
    Thanks for the answers about 2000! πŸ™‚ It’s amazing that Nov was the coldest it got that year. Something screwed us then but I am not sure what. I can assume we had a raging PDO?

  7. TriforceofEternity says:

    I think Street view is a tad bit creepy but it’s not a live image so they aren’t tracking us and it’s no different then what any photographer can take legally.
    Heck if I had the funds I could do my own street view of Silverton at every intersection/Junction as long as I don’t go onto private property.
    45F here and overcast:
    Thanks for the answers about 2000! πŸ™‚ It’s amazing that Nov was the coldest it got that year. Something screwed us then but I am not sure what. I can assume we had a raging PDO?

  8. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Tri- Hillsboro at least is wetter this year and I suspect much warmer than in 2000. 4.23″ vs 2.65″

  9. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Tri, in November 2000 Salem recieved 2.52 inches of precip. So far this month Salem has gotten 3.52 so easily wetter than that year. The low for the month was 19 degrees, which I’m pretty sure was the lowest temp for the winter.

  10. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Hey tri, were you asking about google street view the other day? I was checking that out, its kinda creepy that anybody can just type in your address and get a street view of your house…at least that’s the feeling I got looking at my own house on there. Anyways I think Nov. 2000 was drier at least before thanksgiving…It was also much colder.

  11. Andrew Johnson (Silverton) says:

    Hey tri, were you asking about google street view the other day? I was checking that out, its kinda creepy that anybody can just type in your address and get a street view of your house…at least that’s the feeling I got looking at my own house on there. Anyways I think Nov. 2000 was drier at least before thanksgiving…It was also much colder.

  12. Anonymous says:

    Tri- No offense man, but chill out a little or do some Googling to find your answer. Not everyone can read this blog all day and have the answer immediately.

  13. Anonymous says:

    Tri- No offense man, but chill out a little or do some Googling to find your answer. Not everyone can read this blog all day and have the answer immediately.

  14. Mike (Sweet Home - El 580') says:

    That worked good. Not sure what Google’s Gmail account did but works great reading and posting to this blog. If I just type http://stormteam12.typepad.com directly into windows mobile browser this blog site is not readable. Sweet…now I have mobile access when I need it.

  15. Mike (Sweet Home via my windows mobile cell phone) says:

    This post is from my 8525 windows mobile cell phone. I sent a link to my gmail account and accessed this site via that link. told it to hide images and added to my windows mobile favorites. reading this blog works good and if this posts even better. I have unlimited data so this will be handy when on the road or with the misses while she shops and I am bored.

  16. TriforceofEternity says:

    This is my last time I will ask this before I make a topic on Western. Is this as dry as November 00?
    PS: I think I am going to have my first highs in the 40s for the year. 46.9F now and overcast.

  17. Boring Larry in Cherryville el.918 says:

    Stark Street Pizza place
    best thin crust on the planet
    self professed expert

  18. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    18z GFS not as cold, but yesterday the 18z was an outlier with the 00z trending colder, and today the 12z following suit looking much colder. So I am discounting the 18z.
    Any thoughts?

  19. ChuckyD81 says:

    Mike…
    Have you tried this address?: http://stormteam12.typepad.com
    That’s the Typepad direct site…free of ads!

  20. ChuckyD81 says:

    Mike…
    Have you tried this address?: http://stormteam12.typepad.com
    That’s the Typepad direct site…free of ads!

  21. rob martin says:

    Mike… I think you are out of luck

  22. rob martin says:

    Mike… I think you are out of luck

  23. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    ahhh!! now i get it rob haha
    verizon is better trust me πŸ™‚

  24. stevied - (North Portland) says:

    3 boys all younger than 10 also keep me “inside” the woodwork much of the time. πŸ™‚

  25. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    StevieD, welcome back….
    It is nice to see how everyone “comes out of the woodwork” when the models begin showing the goods.
    Look forward to your posts.

  26. stevied - (North Portland) says:

    Hey all. I’ve been gone awhile, but this time of year always brings me back. πŸ™‚
    I was going to try to go to the AMS meeting, but was unable to make it.
    The 12z GFS is the first really interesting run of the season for me, I think. Looking forward to the next 2-3 runs to see if there’s any halfway consistent pattern. The good, cold air is about 11 days out on the 12z GFS. We need something within 7-8 days out to get a bit more excited. C’mon winter!

  27. Mike (Sweet Home - El 580') says:

    I have a AT&T 8525 with Windows Mobile 6 and have a terrible time viewing this blog. Is there a trick or a different address for windows mobile?

  28. Rob Martin says:

    I just got a new blackberry phone…aka crackberry cause they are so addicting. I was testing to see if i can get it to work here on the blog

  29. Rob Martin says:

    I just got a new blackberry phone…aka crackberry cause they are so addicting. I was testing to see if i can get it to work here on the blog

  30. mike from orchards says:

    Agree with all….”we” can certainly have hope….
    51.4F…RH 78%…..SE winds to 8mph…

  31. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    12z EURO has the ridge axis a smidge further offshore around 135-137 W.

    Would want to ultimately see the ridge nose further north amplifying more than is seen here.

  32. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    i dont get it rob….

  33. Rob Martin says:

    Crackberry storm test.

  34. TriforceofEternity says:

    Inacuaurateweather.com you mean LOL. Now on to more serious matters? Are we as dry as November 00 right now?

  35. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    at this point one can only hope…

  36. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Whether or not this happens isn’t it nice to finally have some glimmer of weather excitement to look at in the models? We really did need this. Surely this probably won’t come to fruition, but we also know this will not be the last time.
    We will get ours.

  37. Atmospheric Wrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Paul, excellent post. I see your thoughts a very well in line with my post from last night.
    We only need the ridge axis 100-200 miles offshore to really get us into some modified/true Arctic air.
    I suppose that is a possibility.
    Luvry, I think the 12z GEM only outputs 0-144hr unlike the 00z which is 0-240hr.

  38. PaulB/Eugene says:

    12Z GFS operational run decidedly colder than previous runs, with ensembles in more than fair agreement. General theme from all of the models during the past few days has been an amplication of pattern, with either a rex block pattern or omega block….less likely the simple big fog ridge most of us despise.
    Most likely scenario is ridging over N/Central BC coast, with trough digging S through the Canadian Rockies, with split of trough energy between a low that digs SSW toward California, and the remainder (with core of cold air as usual) headed toward the Great Plains.
    Highs in low 40s lows 22-26 in Willamette Valley most likely scenario. If GFS 12Z operational run verified the nighttime lows would be more like 18-25, highs 38-42…with more moderate nighttime temps near the gorge winds.
    With input of continental dry air and lack of any copious low level moisture to begin with, we would not have too much fog.
    No valley snow suggested at this point.

  39. Brian in Bellingham says:

    I think it is WAAAAYYYY too early to be worrying about details of an event that may or may not happen (and, sad to say, probably won’t, but we can hope)

  40. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Not much… There is a warmer juicy system trailing the cold air. If we can get the east side loaded with cold air when the next system comes in we might be able to get an east wind snow event.
    But as many folks noted this is so far out it seems very unlikely. Especially since it is the first time air this cold has shown up in the models.

  41. yevgeniy.beaverton says:

    i actually looked at that but i am curious will there be any moisture around?
    maybe snow?

  42. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I think based on the ensemble posted earlier it would be dry continental air out of Canada.

  43. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    If you want a simple text forecast based off of raw GFS data check out the Accuweather 15-day forecast. It is exactly what the model predicts without human adjustments.
    That forecast would give us a high of 44 and low 26 on the 3rd, 37/23 on the 4th & 37/26 on the 5th:
    http://www.accuweather.com/us/wa/vancouver/98661/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&metric=0

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